The East’s 6-seed Orlando Magic are visiting the 15-seed Indiana Pacers for a New Year’s Eve matinee tip off to end 2025.
Orlando has limped to an 18-15 record while Indiana has scuttled to 6-27; neither team is thrilled by their season so far by any means, but at least teams both have a direction: up and down.
Orlando has the 14th-best point differential, 17th-best offense, and the 11th-best defense; while, the Pacers are rating as the 28th-ranked point differential, 30th in offense and 25th in defense.
Where are Orlando’s best pathways to find success against a Pacers team in disarray?
3 Keys to a Magic Win
1. Slow down Siakam’s fast breaks and spin moves
Dec 29, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) warms up before playing against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
While the Pacers offense has slowed down without their clutch point guard running the show in Tyrese Haliburton, the numbers for Siakam have done anything but.
Pascal Siakam is scoring the second-most points per game of his career (23 PPG) while grabbing 7 boards, dishing out 4 assists to 2 turnovers.
Siakam is converting 52% 2P% on 7 twos per game and 37% 3P% on 5 threes per game, while drawing 7 free throws to boot despite only knocking down 68% FT%.
Containing the easy points Siakam generates in transition and stonewalling his spinning counter moves in the paint is priority number one for Orlando’s defense.
The Magic could throw Jonathan Isaac or Anthony Black to build a triangle around the Pascal problem hoping to slow him down with elite perimeter defense, with plenty of depth despite the injuries to switch and swarm between Noah Penda, Tristan da Silva, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., and Goga Bitadze.
2. Win the rebounding battle, draw more fouls, limit turnovers
Apr 11, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (00) shoots the ball under Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) during the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
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The Magic have big advantages in the multiple four factors:
Orlando’s offense rates 7th at not turning the ball over, 11th at offensive rebounding, and 2nd at drawing fouls; Indiana’s defense rates 22nd at forcing turnovers, 23rd at defensive rebounding, and 29th at defending without fouling.
The Magic’s defense rates 13th at forcing tough shots and 7th at grabbing defensive rebounds; the Pacers’ offense rates dead last in shooting efficiency and 21st in offensive rebounds.
Indiana does a good job at not turning the ball over on offense (8th), they draw fouls at an average rate (16th), and their defense technically rates as well (or as bad as) Orlando’s offense when it comes to shooting efficiency.
The Magic should watch out for those areas to makes sure the Pacers don’t sneak out any points on the margins while building gaps in the areas they have advantages in:
win the rebounding battle; don’t turn the ball over; draw more fouls.
3. Feed Banchero’s Hot Hand
Oct 28, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) celebrates after a basket against the Indiana Pacers in the fourth quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
One way to have fun playing basketball again is to play the team you scored your career-high 50 Points against, let along doing so while they’re missing their franchise player.
Paolo started that game with a 37pt first half that tied a Magic franchise record set by Tracy McGrady; it’s always T-Mac.
Paolo finally looked like he got his bounce back in the game against Toronto, not just in him tallying the fourth triple-double of his career in 23 PTS – 15 REB – 10 AST scoring at a 55% TS% rate, but how he was moving up and down the court, how he was exploding to the rim, and how he was getting more lift under his jumper.
P5 is back in action; time to push this Lamborghini to full throttle.
