Arizona is back in a bowl game, its second in three seasons after going seven years without a postseason appearance. And like in 2023, a victory will get the Wildcats to 10.
The SMU Mustangs (8-4) are what stands between the UA and just the fifth 10-win season in school history. Arizona is currently a 2.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
How will the Wildcats finish out the 2025 season? Our staff makes its predictions.
Kim Doss — Arizona wins 31-24
SMU seems like the kind of team that Arizona’s defense is perfectly built to stop. Its reliance on the pass plays well into the Wildcats’ defensive strengths. UA is fourth in the nation in passing yards allowed going up against the No. 11 passing offense. So far this year, such matchups have favored the Wildcats. They have done enough to disprove the doubters who thought they couldn’t maintain or improve on it each week. No doubts this week.
Ezra Amacher — Arizona wins 34-31
Bowl games are notoriously hard to predict, and especially so in the era of the transfer portal, NIL and opt outs. I’m going to roll with Arizona in what should be a competitive Holiday Bowl. The Wildcats head to San Diego wit the wind at their back after winning their last five regular season games. Unlike a lot of programs, Arizona has kept its core staff together in the past month, which not only helps with game planning but gives the team a healthy sense of morale heading into the season finale. This isn’t a situation where half the team is adjusting on the fly to a new coordinator (on a related note, SMU’s offensive coordinator recently left for the Missouri State head coach job).
Bowl games often come down to which team is more motivated. I’m confident that Arizona’s seniors are going to play hard and go after one last win. I’m also confident that Noah Fifita wants to impress the hundreds of family and friends who will be in attendance for what could be his last game played in his home state of California. I’m not so confident that SMU is looking forward to this matchup in the same way. The Mustangs were just in California last month, losing to Cal in an upset that derailed their ACC title game hopes. Another
Adam Green — Arizona wins 30-17
This game is difficult to predict in large part because we don’t know for sure who will be playing. It’s probably best to assume key guys will take the field, and in that case this is a very winnable game for the Wildcats.
SMU’s strengths are their passing game, run defense and pass rush. Arizona’s strengths are its secondary and passing attack. While each team can do good things in other areas of the game, these are the reasons they win. So, with that in mind what gives?
Chances are Arizona’s offense, with more time to get healthy, will come out firing against a fairly suspect secondary. If the line can protect Noah Fifita he should be able to pick the Mustangs apart, allowing for the running game to pick up some chunks.
Figuring with all this time Danny Gonzales will have a plan for SMU QB Kevin Jennings and his diverse set of pass catchers, there’s no reason why Arizona shouldn’t get its 10th win of the season.
Juan Serrano — Arizona wins 35-17
This is going to be a nice showing for Arizona. While SMU might have the offensive power to score, the Wildcats defense should be able to shut it down. In their Arizona finale, Dalton Johnson and Treydan Stukes will lead the defense to one more solid performance. Kevin Jennings will be the main issue, mainly due to the fact that Arizona has struggled with running quarterbacks. However, Jennings is also a very capable passer so if needed to he can make plays happen.
Where I think SMU will be exposed is its run defense. Seth Doege should be able to rely on the rushing attack for a good portion of the game. Once the Mustangs focus on the run, Noah Fifita will be able to pick apart the defense. Kris Hutson, Tre Spivey, Gio Richardson, and the rest of the receivers will allow for Fifita to find his throws. Arizona should also be able to control the time of possession.
While this may be a “neutral site” bowl game, San Diego has a good portion of Wildcats country out there. Add in everyone coming from Tucson and this turns into a Snapdragon Stadium dominated by Arizona fans. Becoming just one of five Arizona teams to get to ten wins, Brent Brennan’s team gets the job done and beats SMU to finish out an unbelievable season.
Brandon Combs — Arizona wins 31-21
Bowl games are usually always a toss-up. I think no matter how you slice it, the advantage is with the ‘Cats. SMU has a pretty good QB in Kevin Jennings. He can make the big plays, however, he also makes plenty of mistakes. He hasn’t been as big a threat in the running game as he was last year though I wouldn’t be surprised if Danny Gonzales made sure to account for that aspect of his game. The Mustangs also have three receivers to keep an eye on: Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and Yamir Knight. Together, they account for 146 catches, 1,920 yards and 14 touchdowns. That’s over half of Jennings’ completions, almost 60% of his pass yards and all but 12 of his passing touchdowns. Defensively, safety Ahmaad Moses is a problem. He leads SMU in tackles and interceptions and is fourth in tackles for loss.
All that said, Arizona pulls this off with a more consistent quarterback and more plays on defense.
Brian Pedersen — Arizona wins 27-20
The Holiday Bowl has been a place of highs and lows for Arizona, but in recent memory it’s always where the current era of Wildcat football really got going. The 2022 season began with a 38-20 victory at Snapdragon Stadium, and now the second 10-win campaign in three years can culminate there.
Arizona should have the vast majority of its regular lineup (minus injuries) available for this game, and while so does SMU the Mustangs may not be as motivated after falling short of the ACC title game and a return trip to the College Football Playoff. How much of an advantage that will give the UA remains to be seen, but it’s something.
With almost a month to prepare for SMU’s offense, Danny Gonzales should have a great defensive plan ready. And Noah Fifita loves playing away from home, so expect him to lead the Wildcats to another win.
(straight up/against the spread)
