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The governing Liberals, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, face a confluence of crises in 2026, writes Robyn Urback.James Park/Reuters
Heading into 2026, Canada is grappling with talk of separatism referendums in two provinces, Alberta and Quebec. It is slated to participate in a formal review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at a time when the U.S. has pledged to “reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.” Public trust in our institutions have plummeted, down nearly 10 percentage points between 2013 and 2024 for our justice system, 13 percentage points for trust in police, and more than 15 percentage points for schools.
According to a recent poll by Abacus Data, 67 per cent of Canadians say the cost of living in their area is the worst they can ever remember it being. Productivity remains stagnant, despite big plans for investment and infrastructure development. And our hospitals are in such dire straits that a 44-year-old man with chest pains can be allegedly made to wait eight hours in an Edmonton emergency room, before ultimately succumbing to his condition.
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Much has been made of the so-called “vibe shift” that swept many Western nations after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump in 2024: a shift away from “wokeness” and from performative activism that Mr. Trump’s successful re-election seemed to give license. But in Canada, this shift runs deeper than the culture wars.
The last majority government was elected on an explicit promise of fiscal irresponsibility: to spend beyond its means during a period of relative economic stability because it sounded good compared to those doddering old Conservatives. Much of the country was charmed by the handsome prime minister who quipped “because it’s 2015” in response to a question about why he was pursuing gender parity in cabinet. The new defence minister was dubbed a “badass” for the way he looked in pictures. Our Foreign Affairs department boasted about a “feminist foreign policy” without a hint of irony or self-awareness. The government banned plastic straws. It called itself complicit in a continuing genocide. It bragged about plans to bring in hundreds of thousands of newcomers annually it could never possibly integrate.
It was, in a word, a time of profound unseriousness, when the message was the policy, and the effect was the afterthought. That badass defence minister turned out to be one of the worst, most incompetent members of cabinet. That influx of newcomers to Canada destroyed the Canadian consensus on immigration, amid many other tangible effects. Housing became even less affordable, health care waits have gotten even worse, our per-capita GDP flatlined, and institutions collapsed on themselves. By the end of 2024, the prime minister’s slogans no longer seemed cute. Compared to Justin Trudeau, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was the serious one, ready to take on the enormous challenge of fixing Canada. But then along came Mark Carney, who contrasted Mr. Poilievre’s jejune slogans with a formidable resumé and an air of tested confidence.
The mood heading into 2026 is even more serious than it was then. The threat of separatism, of further erosion to our relationship with the U.S., of the collapse of public trust in our institutions, of foreign and domestic security threats and of continuing economic strife will do that. Canadians were evenly split, by the end of the year, as to which party they believed could best handle these issues. But by a wide margin, many more Canadians believed that Mr. Carney was the man to lead the way.
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That might have come as a surprise to Conservatives who believed that as economic concerns began to rise above those about Mr. Trump in the latter half of 2025, so too would support for Mr. Poilievre. But economic concerns are also serious concerns, and the gravitas that Mr. Poilievre appeared to have (compared to the guy who is now showing up in Instagram selfies with a pop star, at least) is no match for the two-time central banker who has demonstrated he has little time for antics.
An NDP that wants to again be a viable political party will elect a leader who can meet the moment – who will embrace this vibe shift toward seriousness while reclaiming the space on the left vacated by the Liberals’ push to the middle. A Conservative Party that wants a shot at governing (if an opportunity is afforded to it with the Liberals now just one seat short of a majority) must reflect on whether its current leader, who was perfect for the previous moment, is right for the current one. And the governing Liberals have the toughest job of actually tackling the confluence of crises plaguing Canada in 2026.
“Sunny ways” was a nice thought a decade ago. But now it’s way past time to get serious.
