NFL Week 18 story lines: Will the losing coach of Ravens-Steelers get fired? Will the Bills tank to get the Patriots?
The stakes are clear and massive in Sunday night’s Steelers-Ravens game. The winner of the NFL’s 272nd and final regular-season game gets the AFC North title and goes to the playoffs as the No. 4 seed. The loser watches the playoffs from home, and the losing coach potentially loses his job, with Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh on the hot seat.
“I think it was Billie Jean King who said that pressure is a privilege,” Harbaugh said. “If those are the things that are being talked about along with that, that’s OK. That’s a privilege, too. So, let’s get to work.”
With one week of the regular season remaining, 12 of 14 playoff spots have been clinched. But the only seed that is determined is the Packers in the NFC’s No. 7. Still to be determined are two division titles, both No. 1 seeds, and the final seeding for 11 teams.
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Here is a look at everything at stake in Week 18:
AFC
⋅ To get the No. 1 seed, the Patriots need to beat the Dolphins and have the Broncos lose at home to the Chargers. But the banged-up Chargers, currently the No. 6 seed, can’t get higher than No. 5, so they will sit Justin Herbert and several other players nursing injuries. Trey Lance will start at quarterback against the Broncos.
“Winning and health, being healthy, those are our two objectives,” Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh said.
⋅ The Jaguars lock up at least the No. 3 seed with a home win over the Titans. They can climb to No. 2 if the Patriots or Broncos lose, and to No. 1 if both the Patriots and Broncos lose.
But the Texans could still win the AFC South and the No. 3 seed with a win over the Colts and a Jaguars loss, which would bump the Jaguars to No. 5.
⋅ An interesting thought for the Bills, who also are nursing several big injuries (such as Josh Allen’s ankle) and currently sit in the No. 7 seed: Could they tank Sunday’s game against the Jets to try to finagle a first-round matchup at New England?
Of the three potential opponents, the Patriots are arguably the most favorable matchup for the Bills. The Texans are the NFL’s hottest team, and they beat the Bills in Houston this season. The Jaguars are the second-hottest team, and the Bills have struggled in Jacksonville in the past. But the Bills don’t bat an eye at playing the Patriots, and erased a 21-0 deficit at New England two-plus weeks ago.
This is also a Bills team that could use a week to get everyone healthy, and just a year ago sat all their starters in a Week 18 loss to the Patriots.
The Patriots-Dolphins, Bills-Jets, and Broncos-Chargers games will all start at 4:25 p.m. to ensure no team has extra information.
But the Bills may still play to win, for two reasons. One, they can still probably beat the Jets with their backups. Two, it’s likely the final game in the 54-year history of Highmark Stadium, and it deserves a better sendoff than the Bills benching their starters and tanking the game. The best-case scenario for the Bills is to build a big lead early and bench everyone after halftime.
“You’ve got the last game in Highmark Stadium here. That’s important to me,” coach Sean McDermott said. “Then there’s other things that come into consideration. It won’t be easy, but it is important that we have a good week here.”
NFC
⋅ The stakes for Saturday’s 49ers-Seahawks game are simple and clear: The winner gets the NFC West title and No. 1 seed, and the loser gets No. 5 or 6.
Neither team will be feeling its freshest. The Seahawks have a short week after a return from an East Coast trip to Carolina, and have to play their second straight road game. The 49ers have a short week coming off “Sunday Night Football,” their second short week in a row.
“We just had a short week, so I really wish it would’ve been Sunday, but it is what it is,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said.
⋅ The Panthers and Buccaneers kinda, sorta have a win-or-go-home game on Saturday afternoon. If the Panthers win, they take the NFC South crown and No. 4 seed. If the Buccaneers win, they only win the division if the Saints also beat the Falcons on Sunday.
But if the Buccaneers and Falcons both win, there will be a three-way tie at 8-9 with Carolina. The Panthers would then win the tiebreaker for the division title because of a 3-1 record vs. the other two teams, compared with 2-2 for the Buccaneers and 1-3 for the Falcons.
⋅ The Bears and Eagles will earn the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds. Since the Bears defeated the Eagles this season, they clinch No. 2 with a win over the Lions or an Eagles loss to the Commanders. The Eagles need a win and a Bears loss to get No. 2.
⋅ The Rams hold the “common opponents” tiebreaker over the 49ers but not the Seahawks. The Rams can’t go lower than No. 6, but would jump to No. 5 if they beat the Cardinals and the 49ers lose to the Seahawks. If the 49ers win, the Rams are automatically the No. 6 seed.
Ben Volin can be reached at [email protected].
