Illustration by Lanette Behiry/Real Estate News
While affordability is expected to improve, litigation isn’t going away — and questions remain about what the government will do to bring about housing reform.
Key points:
- Pending litigation leaves the industry facing some big decisions — including on the Sitzer/Burnett and Gibson settlements — heading into the new year.
- MLSs are expected to become more independent as NAR focuses less on rulemaking and more on advocacy.
- With midterm elections on the horizon, the federal government may finally be ready to tackle legislation aimed at addressing housing affordability challenges.
Though home sales, inventory and prices are expected to continue slowly normalizing, 2026 is already shaping up to be a topsy-turvy year for real estate.
This trend is in keeping with the past three years: While buyers and sellers have been stuck in a persistently “low gear” market, the industry itself has faced some fundamental questions about how it operates.
In 2023, the Sitzer/Burnett verdict threw buyer agent commissions into turmoil. Settlements followed in 2024, and for a moment it seemed like a fresh start might be on the horizon. Instead, 2025 brought a new round of lawsuits over private listings and mandatory membership as the commissions settlements faced new appeals.
With all of this in mind, the stage is set for 2026. Here’s what some industry players predict will happen in the coming year.
Buyer agent commissions settlements could be overturned
On his Notorious ROB Substack, real estate consultant Rob Hahn admitted that his predictions are geared more toward provoking discussion than correctly forecasting the year ahead, but they do raise interesting questions.
His first prediction for 2026? That the Sitzer/Burnett and Gibson settlements will be overturned. Those deals created a settlement fund for home sellers totaling about $1 billion and led to policy changes at the National Association of Realtors regarding how buyer agent commissions are handled.
If Hahn’s doozy of a prediction comes to pass, it would create a new wave of industry turmoil.
The cases are currently in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. Oral arguments are scheduled for Jan. 14, and a ruling is expected to follow later in 2026. If the three-judge panel decides to vacate the settlements, it would be “pure chaos” for the industry, Hahn wrote, adding that he suspects a revamped settlement would need to have higher monetary damages, mandate more extreme policy changes — or both.
“We just spent a year putting new rules into place, entirely new systems in many cases, changes to forms and millions of man-hours spent on training agents on how to do business under the Settlement,” Hahn wrote previously.
“All of that goes out the window,” he noted, adding that there will be “uncertainty as to what the new rules will be” if settlement negotiations must begin anew.
MLS consolidation may speed up
Redfin predicts that NAR will continue shifting its efforts from making rules for multiple listing services to advocacy — and as it does so, the consolidation of smaller MLSs into bigger networks will accelerate.
MLSs will be more apt to set their own rules, Redfin analysts believe — especially since NAR updated its MLS Handbook to give local MLSs more discretion in creating and enforcing policies — but with more than 500 MLSs across the U.S., a lack of standardized rules could be confusing for consumers.
That confusion “will, if anything, highlight the value of having an agent who is very knowledgeable about their local MLS,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather told Real Estate News during a recent phone interview.
Rise of the ‘lifestyle renter’?
Amid affordability challenges and persistently high home prices, Zillow expects a growing share of Americans will choose to rent to better fit their lifestyle preferences.
The prediction is based in part on Zillow’s 2025 Consumer Housing Trends report, which found that only 37% of renter respondents said they would buy a home even if mortgage rates dropped — down from 45% a year ago. The survey also found that nearly 60% of respondents planned to continue renting in 2026.
Meanwhile, Zillow anticipates that rent affordability will improve in most of the biggest markets in 2026, with apartment rents expected to rise just 0.3%.
Government housing reform plans on the way
Housing affordability was a bipartisan issue in 2025 — and Redfin expects this mutual political interest will translate into some sort of action before the 2026 midterm elections.
While President Donald Trump recently teased a major announcement about housing reform, Redfin is also forecasting that legislators will introduce bills to address affordability and implement zoning law changes.
However, it takes time to pass and implement legislation. With that in mind, Redfin doesn’t expect “normalcy” to return to housing costs until 2030.
