The economic consequences are equally stark. With front lines frozen, it is Trump, not Putin, who will be negotiating access to rare earth minerals in the Donbas with Kyiv. Add the growing likelihood of reparations, alongside the possible seizure of $200bn in frozen Russian assets, and the Russian economy, already in freefall, looks increasingly unsustainable.
Two further realities will weigh heavily in Washington. First, Russia’s ministry of defence now knows its battered army is no match for Nato, even without the United States. Second, with oil prices slipping below $60 a barrel, the financial fuel that sustains Russia’s war machine is rapidly evaporating. Without revenue, the guns fall silent.
The CIA has effectively removed the Kremlin’s hoodwink from the president’s eyes. Trump now holds Putin firmly by the jugular. While Washington may remain cautious about committing large numbers of US troops, this is precisely where European Nato nations must step forward.
Collectively, they possess ample air and land power to secure Ukraine, if they choose to act together.
Concerns about nuclear escalation persist, yet notably the Kremlin’s routine nuclear threats have all but disappeared in recent weeks. This is not coincidence. Moscow understands that nuclear sabre-rattling no longer intimidates European leaders, and that Mutually Assured Destruction remains as relevant today as it has been for the past 80 years.
For the first time in years, there is genuine cause for cautious optimism. If Trump maintains pressure on Putin, and European Nato states continue to rebuild credible military strength, the only language the Kremlin respects, then 2026 may yet deliver a just and durable peace for Ukraine.
