The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at Fresno State on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (10-3, 2-0 MW) at Fresno State (6-7, 0-2)
When: Saturday, 4 p.m.
Where: Save Mart Center (15,596 capacity)
TV/Radio: Nevada Sports Net/95.5 FM
Online: NevadaSportsNet.com
Betting line: No line listed yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Don’t drop level of play: The caliber of competition is dropping in this game as Nevada faces Fresno State, but the Wolf Pack can’t let its level of play also fall. Some of Nevada’s poorest games this season have come against so-so competition with the loss to UC Davis (8-5) and near upsets versus Southern Illinois (7-8), Pacific (9-6) and Duquesne (9-5). Nevada has raised its level of play to start Mountain West action against Boise State and Colorado State, which are both top-100 teams. Now that the Wolf Pack is facing Fresno State (NET 174), it can’t play to that level of competition, especially on the road. The Bulldogs are the second-lowest-rated team Nevada has faced to date ahead of only Louisiana Tech (KenPom 180), a team the Wolf Pack whipped 77-50. There’s that kind of potential in this game.
2. Win the turnover battle: After ranking 32nd in the nation in tempo last season, Fresno State has slowed things down this year with an adjusted pace that slots 146th in the country. Still, Fresno State will apply ball pressure and has forced 15.1 turnovers per game. The Bulldogs create a turnover on 20.6 percent of their opponents’ possessions, 29th best in the country. This shouldn’t be an issue for Nevada, which simply doesn’t turn the ball over (second in the nation in that category). Plus, the Wolf Pack is applying more pressure itself this season, and that could be a big advantage against Fresno State, which is averaging 14.1 giveaways per game, one of the nation’s worst marks. Nevada should win the turnover battle, but Fresno State has done a good job forcing foes into miscues, which the Wolf Pack can’t allow.
3. Pound the ball inside: Fresno State had been great at defending the three (28.4 percent allowed, 24th in the nation) and terrible at defending two (57.1 percent, 343rd in the nation). The obvious goal there is to beat Fresno State on the inside. The Bulldogs don’t have much rim protection, averaging just 2.1 blocks per game. One of Nevada’s few weaknesses this season has been finishing around the rim, but the Wolf Pack has been aggressive attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. Fresno State doesn’t foul much but has been susceptible defending the interior. The Bulldogs’ defense is better than the offense, largely because of that ability to hold the opposition down from beyond the arc. But Fresno State has allowed 61.5 percent shooting from two in its last five games, a clear and obvious weakness.
Prediction
Nevada 79, Fresno State 68: If Nevada wants to win its first MW title under Steve Alford – and that’s becoming a more realistic possibility after two big wins to start the season – it must go 6-0 against the MW’s bottom three of Fresno State, San Jose State and Air Force. The Wolf Pack nearly slipped up at Fresno State last season, winning in overtime. But Nevada has dominated the Bulldogs, winning 16 of its last 17 games against Fresno State. It should have minimal trouble winning its eighth straight in this series as Fresno State has lost five in a row, including games against Bakersfield and Northridge. Season record: 8-5
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
