In a game which is typical of Week 18 in the NFL, there is one side, the Jaguars who have a lot to play for whereas the other side, in this case, the Titans are just playing for pride although Tennessee would like nothing more than to wreck the Jaguars bid for the AFC South title and perhaps a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC writes ANDY RICHMOND.
In fact, Jacksonville, depending on this result and others around the league, can still be the 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6 seed in the AFC.
The Jaguars come into the game riding a seven-game winning streak that has seen them to the top of the AFC South and they lead the league in scoring since their Week 8 bye, a mark that would also rank first in the league if extrapolated to the full season.
It’s no wonder then that they are favoured by some 13.5 points here and when they are as big a favourites as that they are here they are 11-0 in franchise history. However, in those previous matchups there wasn’t so much on the line as there is here.
Jacksonville secured a playoff berth two weeks ago and has faced division-clinching scenarios since. But all of those required Houston to lose, and the Texans are the only NFL team hotter than the Jags right now. The Titans would love nothing more than to play the spoiler role to end their dismal 3-13 season so far on a high. The Titans just can’t seem to string together success. After their loss to the Saints last week, they have lost 12 consecutive games both SU and ATS after a SU win, which is the longest active ATS losing streak off of a SU loss in the NFL. This does look an ominous task for the Titans though; they have played 15 total games this year. In 11 of those games, they have faced teams currently in the top 8 seeds in either conference; they are 0-11 SU and 4-7 ATS in those games.
Tennessee became the first NFL team to make a coaching change this season and will have a new regime in a few weeks. A roster overhaul is likely to follow and it would be a major shock to see the Jaguars lose this one, although it shouldn’t be forgotten that they blew a 19-point fourth-quarter lead against Houston earlier in the season but they are a better and far more confident team now. The Jaguars haven’t had a record like this since 1999, and they will be trying to win 13 games for the first time since that season and they have already set the franchise’s single season scoring record (433 points) and need one touchdown for the most in any season. More important, they can win the AFC South for the third time.
To gain the #1 seeding in the AFC, the Jaguars need help as the Broncos and the Patriots, who both play later in the afternoon, would have to lose but being first on we can be assured that Jacksonville will be going all out to secure the win and put the pressure back on their Conference rivals.
One of the many reasons for the upturn in the Jaguars’ fortunes has been the form of QB Trevor Lawrence, who after starting the season accounting for multiple touchdowns in just three of seven game,s has thrown for multiple scores in all bar one game since their bye week, with nine combined TDs in Weeks 15 &16 against the Jets and Broncos. All in all, Lawrence has accounted for 35 touchdowns this season (26 passing, 9 rushing). That’s the second most in a season in team history (2015 Blake Bortles had 37). Lawrence has thrown for at least 263 yards in three straight games and he’s delivering the ball to multiple levels of the field and will be taking the field here with a full set of skill players at his disposal.
On the ground, Travis Etienne should remain the lead running back, although with Bhayshul Tuten back he may not be playing around 70% of the team’s offensive snaps as he has been in the last three weeks. Etienne has not gone over 100 yards on the ground all season and now finds himself up against a Titans defence which now forcing the highest opposing PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) in the NFL.
It’s Lawrence and the pass offence that has carried the Jaguars forward and that offence has become quite concentrated of late with WRs Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Brian Thomas Jr alongside TE Brenton Strange the main targets for Lawrence. The Titans are a zone-based defence that statistically Washington and Strange have thrived against although the likes of Meyers and Thomas would not be far behind on the same numbers.
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The Titans are trying to avoid going winless in the division for the first time since the inception of the AFC South in 2002. Tennessee has been outscored by 96 points in five divisional losses, with only of those games being close. Recently though they have played in some tight games against what can be described as solid opponents, losing 27-20 to the Chargers, 16-13 to the Texans, 30-24 to the Seahawks, 37-24 to the 49ers, and 34-26 to the Saints in the last eight games, a span that also includes wins over the Browns (31-29) and Chiefs (without Mahomes, 26-9). Those L’s in the record coming against teams apart from the Saints who are all at the post-season party, it’s just 25-3 battering against the Jaguars that stands out.
At quarterback, the Titans appear to have found hope for the future via Cam Ward, although this is a tough test against a tough Jaguars defence. On the ground, RB Tony Pollard will be chasing a payday as he needs 66 yards to reach 1,100 yards rushing for the season and earn a $250,000 bonus although only the Colts Jonathan Taylor has topped 66 yards rushing against Jacksonville and the NFL’s top-ranked run defence this season. Pollard has gone over 70 yards on the ground five times this season, four of which have come in the last month of play, so there is hope for Pollard in what is a tough matchup. Pollard also continues to cede red zone work to Tyjae Spears, having not seen a carry inside the five in the last four games, something to remember if you are looking at TD scorers.
If the Titans are to take to the air though the question remains who is their primary pass catcher as there is no real alpha at wide receiver. The absence of Van Jefferson and possibly Gunnar Helm means that we could see more targets for Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor. Dike and Ayomanor have been relative bright spots for the Titans, but the passing offence as a whole has been brutal all season.
It would be a surprise if the Jaguars don’t find plenty of offensive success here and that scoreboard pressure should force the Titans to take to the air and it looks as though both teams have maximum motivation to go for the win. All of that means that we should be in for an entertaining game with points on the board, the Jaguars have covered seven straight games, the longest streak in the NFL this season and tied for the longest streak in Jacksonville’s history (2007). They won’t care about the cover, though as long as the W goes in the win column.
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