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Heat vs. Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Picks – Jan. 4

Data Skrive

The New Orleans Pelicans (8-28) will attempt to halt a six-game losing streak when visiting the Miami Heat (19-16) on January 4, 2026 at Kaseya Center. The Heat square off against the Pelicans in a game that Miami is currently a solid favorite by 9 points. The over/under is 245.5 points for the matchup.

Check out everything you need to know to know about the Heat-Pelicans game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Pelicans Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

  • When: Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 6 p.m. ET
  • Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
  • TV: FDSSUN, Gulf Coast Sports, Pelicans+, and WPLG
  • Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Heat vs Pelicans Betting Information Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Heat -9 -110 -110 245.5 -114 -106 -375 +300

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Heat vs. Pelicans Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (- 9)
O/U Pick: Under (245.5)
Score Prediction: Heat 126 – Pelicans 113

Heat vs. Pelicans Betting Insights

  • Heat games have gone over 245.5 points scored, their current matchup’s over/under, 14 times (out of 35) this season.
  • A total of 12 Pelicans games this season (out of 36) have had more than 245.5 total points scored.
  • These teams average a combined 236.1 points per game, 9.4 fewer points than the over/under of 245.5 set for this matchup.
  • Opponents of the two teams average a combined 4.8 fewer points per game (240.7) than this game’s total of 245.5 points.
  • Miami has been chosen as the favorite in 15 games this year and has walked away with the win nine times (60%) in those games.
  • New Orleans has won in six, or 17.6%, of the 34 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
  • Miami has come out on top in both of its last two head-to-head matchups against New Orleans.
  • The Heat have an advantage against the spread as well (2-0) when playing the Pelicans.

Heat Recent Trends

  • The Heat have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 5-5 overall over their last 10 contests.
  • Miami’s average total over the last 10 games is 10.0 points fewer than the 245.5 over/under given for this matchup.
  • In the Heat’s 35 games this year, they have 20 wins against the spread.
  • Miami has been favored by 9 points or more three times this season and covered the spread in one of them.
  • The Heat have eclipsed the over/under in 50% of their opportunities this year (18 times over 36 games with a set point total).
  • The Heat average 120.7 points per game, just 2.4 fewer points than the 123.1 the Pelicans give up.
  • Miami has a 12-2 record against the spread and an 11-3 record overall when scoring more than 123.1 points.
  • This season, the Heat have a 47.3% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.4% lower than the 48.7% of shots the Pelicans’ opponents have hit.
  • The Heat have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than road games. They have covered 10 times in 18 games at home, and they’ve covered 10 times in 17 games on the road.
  • In terms of point totals, Miami hits the over less often in home games, as it has eclipsed the total nine times in 18 opportunities this season (50%). In away games, it has hit the over nine times in 17 opportunities (52.9%).
  • The Heat have won a higher percentage of their games as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, going 8-5 (.615). When playing away from home as a moneyline favorite, they own a record of 1-1 (.500).

Heat Recent Stats

Stat Average Rank Points Scored 120.7 3 Points Allowed 117.6 20 Rebounds 45.6 6 Assists 28.7 7 Steals 9.2 5 Blocks 4.5 19

Heat Leaders

  • Kel’el Ware posts 12.3 points, 0.5 assists and 10.6 boards per game.
  • Norman Powell puts up 24.1 points, 3.8 boards and 2.7 assists per game, shooting 48.1% from the floor and 40.3% from downtown with 2.9 made treys per contest.
  • Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 16.2 points, 5.3 boards and 4.7 assists per game, shooting 53.3% from the field.
  • Bam Adebayo averages 17.4 points, 2.4 assists and 9.7 rebounds.
  • Andrew Wiggins puts up 16.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. At the other end he averages 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks.

Heat Player Props

Points O/U Points Over Odds PPG Norman Powell 24.5 -114 24.1 Andrew Wiggins 17.5 +102 16.3 Bam Adebayo 17.5 -106 17.4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. 17.5 +100 16.2 Kel’el Ware 13.5 -112 12.3

Pelicans Recent Trends

  • The Pelicans are 5-5 against the spread and 4-6 overall over their last 10 contests.
  • New Orleans and its opponents have combined to score an average of 242.6 combined points in its last 10 games, 2.9 less than the 245.5 over/under in this matchup.
  • The Pelicans have 21 wins against the spread in 36 games this season.
  • This year, New Orleans has an against-the-spread record of 10-6 in its 16 games as an underdog of 9 points or more.
  • Pelicans games this year have hit the over on 21 of 36 set point totals (58.3%).
  • The Pelicans’ 115.4 points per game are just 2.2 fewer points than the 117.6 the Heat allow to opponents.
  • New Orleans is 12-4 against the spread and 5-11 overall when it scores more than 117.6 points.
  • The Pelicans have shot at a 46.1% clip from the field this season, 0.2 percentage points higher than the 45.9% shooting opponents of the Heat have averaged.
  • Against the spread, the Pelicans have been better at home (14-8-0) than away (7-7-0).
  • New Orleans’ games have finished above the over/under more frequently at home (14 times out of 22) than on the road (seven of 14) this season.

Pelicans Recent Stats

Stat Average Rank Points Scored 115.4 21 Points Allowed 123.1 28 Rebounds 43.4 21 Assists 24.6 26 Steals 8.9 8 Blocks 4.1 27

Pelicans Leaders

  • Trey Murphy III provides 20.5 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game for the Pelicans.
  • The Pelicans are getting 13.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game from Derik Queen this year.
  • Jeremiah Fears gives the Pelicans 14.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game while delivering 1.2 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
  • Zion Williamson is putting up 23.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists per contest. He is draining 55.6% of his shots from the floor.
  • Jose Alvarado gives the Pelicans 8.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per contest while delivering 1.0 steal and 0.1 blocked shots.

Pelicans Player Props

Points O/U Points Over Odds PPG Zion Williamson 24.5 -118 23.4 Trey Murphy III 20.5 -104 20.5 Jordan Poole 16.5 -102 17.2 Jeremiah Fears 12.5 +102 14.3 Derik Queen 11.5 -130 13.1

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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