The Nevada men’s basketball team hosts San Diego State on Tuesday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
San Diego State (9-4, 3-0 MW) at Nevada (11-3, 3-0)
When: Tuesday, 8 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: FS1/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: Nevada by 1.5 points; total of 142.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. More energy: SDSU played a draining three-overtime game against Boise State on Saturday; has five players (including four of its top-five scorers) listed as questionable on the availability report; and has a short turnaround for this road game, so it’d make sense if Nevada was the more energetic side tonight. It should be. SDSU led Boise State by 23 points in the second half Saturday night before coughing that up and needing a series of miracles in overtime to pull out the win. That is certainly an energizing win, but will the Aztecs been able to redouble their efforts and match that energy 72 hours later? Nevada will be playing in front of what should be a sizable home crowd, which could provide an extra bounce in its step getting to loose balls and offensive rebounds (SDSU’s defensive rebounding has been poor).
2. Win the bench battle: Both of these teams are constructed in a similar fashion with a depth-over-stars approach. Both go 10 deep and have two of the MW’s best benches. Tyler Rolison has starred off the bench for Nevada the last two games, averaging 18.5 points per game during that stretch. Likewise, BJ Davis averaged 20 points off the bench in a pair of wins last week. In fact, Davis leads SDSU in scoring despite not starting a game this season (he started 31 last year). Neither team sees their level of play drop when they go to their reserves, and sometimes that level improves when the bench hits the court. The team with the most bench points most likely wins this game as the starting fives are even.
3. Handle the pressure: SDSU historically has an elite defense, although this year’s iteration is more good than great. The Aztecs rank 49th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and have been prone to lapses on the backboard, in fouling and in leaving players open from three. Where SDSU has been great is creating turnovers. The Aztecs force 15.4 per game, the 32nd most in the nation. Nevada has been one of the nation’s top teams in not turning the ball over, limiting itself to 8.9 giveaways per game, third best in the country. But the Wolf Pack had some issues with Fresno State’s defensive pressure in the first half Saturday (seven turnovers) before fixing that in the second half (three turnovers). Nevada point guard Tayshawn Comer is coming off a pair of poor games and needs to rebound and help keep the Wolf Pack to single-digit giveaways against one of the best defenses it will face this year.
Prediction
Nevada 70, San Diego State 66: Nevada is 5-23 against SDSU since joining the MW in 2012 with all five victories at Lawlor Events Center (the Wolf Pack is 0-13 at SDSU and 0-4 against the Aztecs in the conference tournament). This has been a fun series, and this should be a fun game between evenly matched teams. SDSU is a little better on offense and a little better on defense than Nevada, but the Wolf Pack is at home and isn’t coming off a three-overtime grind. The 3-point line will be key, as it usually is. But SDSU is making 40.2 percent of its threes (seventh in the nation) and allowing opponents to attempt 29 3-pointers per game as it emphasizes defending the paint. The hunch is Nevada hits just enough of those threes to score another close win. Season record: 9-5
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
