The Seattle Kraken’s win against the Flames on Monday marked the 40th game of the season and therefore brings another installment of 10 for 10, where I go through 10 stats that add context and color to the Kraken’s season to date and how things are trending.
These last 10 games have been the Kraken’s best stretch of the season, which is a far cry from the doom‑and‑gloom 10‑for‑10 piece I wrote after Games 21 through 30 in the middle of December. This stretch began with a disappointing regulation loss, albeit a valiant effort, against the Colorado Avalanche back on Dec. 16.
Let’s get into it.
Data point 1: Grabbing points in the division
The Kraken’s ascension back into the playoff picture wasn’t just the result of improved play; it was also well timed with stumbles from the teams they were chasing. On Dec. 15, at the 30‑game mark, the Kraken sat sixth in the Pacific Division. Today, they’re third and just one point behind the first‑place Vegas Golden Knights.
During this 10‑game stretch, the Kraken earned five regulation wins against division opponents, and with Monday’s win over Calgary, they have now defeated every Pacific Division team at least once. No other Pacific team has managed that so far this season.
Despite the recent run, the division remains extremely tight, with just three points separating first and sixth place.
Data point 2: Second game of a back‑to‑back
The Kraken went 0‑12‑0 on the second night of back‑to‑backs last season. Zero points. Not even an overtime loss. Lane Lambert mentioned this in his initial press availability and emphatically stated it would improve.
Over the last 10 games, the Kraken had three back‑to‑backs and delivered five out of a possible six points in the second game of those sets.
Data point 3: Penalty kill improvement
In Games 21–30, the penalty kill stood out like a sore thumb and plagued the team throughout that stretch. They made some tweaks, and over the last 10 games, the results have dramatically improved.
Data point 4: Scoring first
I’ve mentioned the importance of scoring first several times this season. The Kraken are 15‑5‑3 when scoring first compared to 4‑9‑4 when allowing the first goal. They scored first in eight of the last 10.
Data point 5: Blocked shots
One thing that stood out in the eye test over this stretch was the shot blocking, so naturally I dug into the numbers. The Kraken blocked an average of 18.4 shots per game, their highest average over any 10‑game stretch this season. They’ve been blocking a lot of shots all year, but this was another level.
Part of this is driven by the state of the game. When you score first, you lead more often, and when you lead in the third period, you naturally fall into a more defensive structure. That leads to more blocked shots as you close out games.
Data point 6: Expected goal differential vs. actual goal differential
“The Kraken are getting lucky” has been a common narrative among the haters this season. People often cite expected‑goal models or the MoneyPuck “Deserve to Win O’Meter.” It’s something I’ve wanted to dig into more deeply, and I still plan to, but for now I put together a simple(ish) visual comparing expected goal differential to actual goal differential.
In short: anytime the X is below zero, the Kraken were expected to lose, where the colored bar represents the actual goal differential.
According to the chart, the Kraken should have lost six of their last eight games… but they won seven of their last eight and earned points in all of those. One might suggest luck, but I’d argue the Kraken do something unique that models underrepresent, such as a stronger defensive structure that invites more shot attempts against but limits dangerous ones.
Models are great and far more informative than most of the simple stats on NHL.com, but there are always outliers. This is no different than an undrafted player going on to play 1,000 NHL games. It challenges logic, but it still happens.
For the season, the Kraken have won 12 games they were “expected” to lose and lost five they were “expected” to win.
My hypothesis: the team plays distinctively differently when holding a lead, limiting high‑quality chances and giving goalies more opportunities to make saves. This inflates expected goals against while suppressing expected goals for. Combine that with strong goaltending, and you get the disproportionate goal differential. There’s more work to be done here, but this is my jumping‑off point.
Data point 7: Goaltending has been stellar
I’m sure the analytics‑fluent crowd would prefer something like goals saved above expected, but for a host of reasons I’m keeping this simple. Since this 10‑game window began on Dec. 16, the goaltending has been outstanding from both Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord.
I really like the cadence of alternating every other game, and that should work well throughout January with so many one‑day‑or‑less breaks between games.
Data point 8: The 2021 NHL Draft class
One of the most enjoyable developments over the last 10 games has been the Kraken’s fourth line. It has featured some combination of Ben Meyers, Tye Kartye, Ryan Winterton, and Jacob Melanson, with the Winterton/Meyers/Melanson trio sticking together for the last four games.
One goal in particular stood out: the Melanson‑to‑Winterton finish in the home game against Vancouver.
That got me thinking, both Winterton and Melanson were part of the Kraken’s inaugural 2021 draft class. So I looked into how that class stacks up league‑wide for this season.
The Kraken have the third‑most NHL games played by their 2021 draft class. That’s impressive on its own, but the context makes it even more so. Arizona had two first‑round picks and three second‑round picks. Carolina had no first‑round picks but three seconds and 13 total picks. The Kraken had just one pick in each of the seven rounds. It’s also worth noting that only one of the Arizona/Utah picks still plays for that organization, and two Carolina picks in the NHL are still Hurricanes, while all four of Seattle’s are still Kraken.
Most draft analysts have been high on Seattle’s draft classes from the start. We’re now seeing that materialize at the NHL level.
Data point 9: Return of the depth?
Depth was a hallmark of the 2022–23 Kraken playoff team, and the KHN broadcast crew referenced it after Monday’s win over Calgary. Right now, contributions are coming from everywhere, and goals are coming from the most unlikely players. Ryan Lindgren, Cale Fleury, and Jacob Melanson each scored their first goals as Seattle Kraken during this stretch.
The Kraken still aren’t scoring a ton overall, but 16 unique goal scorers since Dec. 16 is the most in the league.
Data point 10: Points per game for Eeli Tolvanen
The last player I want to highlight is Eeli Tolvanen, who, after a slower start, has been coming on strong. It was great to see him named to Finland’s Olympic team alongside teammate Kaapo Kakko.
Wrapping it up
If the last 10‑for‑10 was about surviving the storm, this one is about what happens when the clouds finally break. The Kraken aren’t just banking points, they’re building an identity again. The defensive structure looks connected, the goaltending is giving them a chance every night, and the depth that defined their best hockey is resurfacing at exactly the right time.
There’s still plenty of season left, and the Pacific Division is tight enough that a single bad week can undo a lot of good. But for now, the Kraken have put themselves firmly back in the mix.
We’ll see where the next 10 games take us, but this stretch has reminded us that when this team is rolling, they can be a handful for anyone.
