Sunday in New Jersey, Creighton blew a 16-point second half lead and lost 56-54 in the final seconds to Seton Hall. Still in search of their first Q1 win of the season, they get another chance right away with their next game coming at Villanova.
“We talk about next play mentality all the time, and I thought there were some examples today when we made a mistake on offense and then we fouled immediately because we let our frustration get to us,” Greg McDermott said after Sunday’s loss. “Our approach needs to be the same as we move to (Villanova). You learn from this, we watch the things that we did well, we watch the things we struggled with and then we wipe it and we go to the next game. The important thing is that me as the head coach, and our coaching staff, we need to turn the page and go to the next play and the next challenge that we have.”
The Wildcats came into the year with low expectations. It figured to be a foundation building year for new coach Kevin Willard, who returned to the Big East after three years at Maryland. Given his track record at Seton Hall and the resources available to him at Villanova, it’s no surprise he has the program back on track. The surprise is that it’s happened immediately.
They entered the week ranked 17th in the NCAA’s NET rankings and 21st by KenPom. They were five points shy of cracking into the AP Top 25, unofficially ranked #26. And most bracketologists currently have them as a ‘5’ or ‘6’ seed. At 12-2, their only two losses are to KenPom #1 Michigan in a true road game and vs #10 BYU in Las Vegas. They’re 2-2 in Q1 games and 10-0 against everyone else.
Beyond that, they’re a top 30 team on both sides of the ball, with their adjusted offensive efficiency ranking 29th (120.7) and an adjusted defensive efficiency that ranks 25th (97.9). The D1 average is 108.5, which means that for every 100 possessions, Villanova is 22.8 points better than their opponents.
Speaking of expectations, you’d have been hard pressed to find anyone who thought Creighton’s defense would be a strength at the season’s midway point. McDermott himself told the media in October that he figured the team would take a step backwards without Ryan Kalkbrenner and have to win some shootouts. Instead, their defense has been basically the same from a statistical standpoint in four major categories:
Adjusted defensive efficiency:
2025 – 98.3 (44th), 8.6 points better than D1 average
2026 – 100.1 (42nd), 8.4 points better than D1 average
Effective field goal percentage:
2025 – 47.2% (26th)
2026 – 47.5% (50th)
Three-point shooting:
2025 – 32.6% (104th)
2026 – 32.8% (137th)
Two-point shooting:
2025 – 46.2% (15th)
2026 – 46.8% (46th)
And while their blocks have gone down (10.5% last year, 6.7% this year) they’ve had a marked improvement in three other categories:
Steal percentage:
2025 – 5.3% (361st)
2026 – 9.0% (234th)
Turnover percentage:
2025 – 11.6% (361st)
2026 – 14.8% (317th)
Three-point attempts:
2025 – 35.3% (62nd)
2026 – 30.5% (6th)
Last year’s numbers came against a schedule that ranked 45th toughest according to KenPom. This year’s schedule (so far) ranks 22nd.
That’s right: 15 games into the season, Creighton has one of the league’s (and the country’s) best defenses…and a middling offense.
And with that being the case, the matchup against Villanova is strength-versus-strength. The Wildcats have taken 46.4% of their shots from three-point range (48th most in D1), made 37.3% of those shots (41st), and 39.3% of their total points have come via the three-pointer (24th most).
Meanwhile, Creighton’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 42nd (100.1), largely due to their success at defending the perimeter. The Jays’ opponents have taken just 30.5% of their shots from three-point range (6th fewest in D1), and made 32.8% of the ones they have taken (137th). Just 27.3% of their opponents’ total points have come via the three.
In Big East play, Villanova has made 40.3% from three, ranking 1st in the league, while Creighton’s defense has held opponents to 29.6% from outside (4th best). Similarly, in Big East games Creighton’s opponents have made a league-worst 40.7% from two-point range, while Villanova has shot 50.3% inside the arc (3rd best).
“We’re a good shooting team,” said Villanova head coach Kevin Willard. “We’re going to take a lot of threes. Bryce Lindsay is probably one of the best shooters in the country. He doesn’t get talked about a lot. Matt (Hodges) can knock it down. Tyler Perkins is shooting it (well). We come off the bench with Devin Askew. Most times, we have four guys out there that can shoot.”
The Wildcats start a true freshman, a redshirt freshman, a redshirt sophomore, a junior, and a senior, and rank 9th of 11 teams in experience according to KenPom. You’d never know it by the success they’ve had so far.
6’3” guard Bryce Lindsay leads them in scoring at 16.9 points per game, and is their top perimeter scorer. He’s made 46-of-103 from three (44.7%), improving on his already stellar freshman year mark at James Madison (84-of-205, 41.0%). Assuming Josh Dix gets the initial assignment here, it will be interesting to see if he’s able to continue his run of shutting down an opponent’s top perimeter threat.
If he does, it will fall to freshman point guard Acaden Lewis to score and get others involved. The 6’2” Lewis seems to be on track to be the next great Villanova point guard just 14 games into his career, averaging 12.0 points, 5.0 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game against just 1.6 turnovers. He’s had an assist on 32.2% of the Wildcats’ baskets when he’s been on the floor, and has exceptional court vision.
His first option if Lindsay is quieted will be 6’10” center Duke Brennan, who averages 12.0 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. He’s an excellent scorer inside the arc, making 61-of-92 (66.3%) on an array of putbacks and drop-steps. But the senior transfer from Grand Canyon’s real strength is one the glass: he’s quite literally one of the best offensive rebounders in the country, grabbing an astonishing 19.1% of missed shots when he’s on the floor, the 6th best mark in the nation. For comparison, Seton Hall’s Stephon Payne is at 16.4%, Iowa State’s best rebounder, Blake Buchanan, is tied with him at 16.4%, and Butler’s Michael Ajayi grabs 13.6%. Brennan has been significantly better than all three.
Creighton has been better recently on the boards, but Brennan will be a big test: he’s the best in the Big East at grabbing offensive rebounds, and is surrounded by players with a nose for the ball if you successfully block him out.
6’4” guard Tyler Perkins averages 10.9 points per game, and does a little bit of everything. He’s shooting 38.1% from three (24-of-63), can dribble penetrate and score (28-of-62 on twos), and rebounds well for a guard. Meanwhile, 6’8” stretch four Matthew Hodge tests opposing defenses with his ability to shoot both from outside (26-of-77, 33.8%) and at the rim (25-of-42, 59.5%). Hodge averages 10.8 points per game, giving Villanova five starters who all average in double figures.
That also means they aren’t terribly deep, with just 29.3% of their minutes coming from bench players. The biggest contributor is 6’5” senior Devin Askew, who averages 8.7 points and gives them a veteran presence and secondary ball-handler.
queue_play_next How Can I Follow Along?
Tip: 6:30pm
Venue: Finneran Pavilion, Philadelphia, PA
TV: NBCSN
Announcers: Ed Cohen and Tarik Turner
Streaming in the Peacock app (subscription required)
Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
Announcer: John Bishop
Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 388 as well as on the SiriusXM App
Live Stats:
Follow along on Stat Broadcast
sports_basketball Scouting the Opponent
In winning five straight dating back to a 79-61 win over Pittsburgh on Dec. 13, the Wildcats have limited their opponents to 63.2 points per game. No foe has scored more than 67 points in a contest (Butler) and none has converted more than .450 of its field goal attempts against the ‘Cats (DePaul). The perimeter defense, a nagging headache earlier in the season, has improved too. In this stretch opponents are 29-of-104 from beyond the 3-point arc (.279).
Bryce Lindsay helped bring Villanova back from a 33-30 halftime deficit in what became a resounding 85-67 win at Butler Saturday. The Baltimore native added 18 points to lead a balanced Wildcats’ attack. His 16.9 ppg average ranks second in the Big East – Jason Edwards of Providence leads at 17.9 ppg – and he leads the league in 3-Point Field Goal Percentage (.447).
Tyler Perkins has amassed 30 boards in VU’s last four game (7.5 rpg) and is second on the team in caroms this season (5.1 rpg). The Penn transfer makes an impact when scoring as well: the Wildcats are 15-1 (.938) over the last two seasons when Perkins scores in double figures (6-0 in 2025-26).
ravenravenraven Three Birds
Creighton is coming off a game where Seton Hall attempted just seven 3’s, tied for the fewest attempts in any of the 536 games Greg McDermott has coached at Creighton and just the 11th time an opponent has attempted single-digit threes in the McDermott Era.
Since the start of the 2013-14 season, Villanova has suffered only 112 losses, with just 17 of those coming by 15 points or more. Five of those lopsided setbacks have come against Creighton, two against UConn and Michigan, while eight other teams have done it once each.
Creighton is 7-0 all-time when scoring 79 points or more against Villanova, compared to a 4-19 record when scoring 78 points or fewer. Creighton has averaged 81.55 points in 11 all-time wins over Villanova, but just 61.42 in 19 losses against the Wildcats.
calendar_clock The Last Meeting & Series History
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 19-11, including an 11-4 mark in Pennsylvania. CU has never won at Villanova’s on-campus arena, Finneran Pavilion, owning an 0-6 mark all-time. By comparison, they have a 4-2 mark at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
Greg McDermott is 11-16 against Villanova. He is also 9-10 against coach Kevin Willard, with all 19 of those meetings taking place when Willard was head coach at Seton Hall.
Creighton has won each of its last two trips to Villanova by two points, hitting a game-winner in the final six seconds each time. Last year Steven Ashworth took a Jasen Green inbounds pass in the left corner and improbably banked in a game-winning three-pointer with 5.8 seconds left to seal the regular-season sweep over the Wildcats. And in 2024, Trey Alexander hit a game-winner with 0.2 seconds left in a 69-67 win.
fast_rewind This Date in Bluejay History
On January 7, 2004, 23rd ranked Creighton rallied from a 12-point deficit in the final seven minutes to win at Illinois State 56-55. ISU tied the game at 55 on a three-pointer by Trey Guidry with 12 seconds left, and Johnny Mathies responded by driving the length of the floor. He wound up with a wide-open look under the basket, and with 1.4 seconds left, was fouled in desperation by ISU’s Vince Greene to prevent a sure-fire game winner. Mathies hit the first free throw, and then missed the second intentionally to rob the Redbirds of as much time as possible. They weren’t able to get off a shot, and the undefeated Jays escaped with the win.
“We knew what we wanted on that last possession,” Creighton Coach Dana Altman told the media after the game. “We were going with Johnny hitting or missing a shot there. We didn’t want to chance a turnover, and Johnny made a heck of a move. It was a good play on Johnny’s part, but you also have to be careful on that because unless you really get cracked, the officials are reluctant to call a foul there. But he went to the rim and got hammered pretty good.”
The 11-0 start was Creighton’s best since the 1942-43 squad began the season 16-0. They’d win one more to move to 12-0, then lose on the road to Greg McDermott’s Northern Iowa Panthers to end their undefeated streak.
troubleshoot The Bottom Line
Vegas favors Villanova by 6.5, which is in line with KenPom (Nova by 7) and T-Rank (Nova by 5.5). Can Creighton’s defense hold the Wildcats’ perimeter shooters in check? Can they keep Brennan off the glass and keep him from dominating on second-chance points?
Doing both seems like a big ask on the road. Villanova likely wins this one.
Wildcats 72, Bluejays 67
