LOS ANGELES — Jaylen Brown made one pull-up jump shot. And then another. And then another. And then a few more.
By the end of the night, he’d done what seemed virtually impossible, scoring 50 points with the benefit of just two shots in the restricted area. Brown made two driving layups, two short-range floaters (one of them left-handed!) and 14 jump shots of 10 feet or longer, while torching the LA Clippers on 18-of-26 shooting.
He took 15 shots outside the paint and made 11 of them, almost all of them off the dribble and several well-contested by LA. Eight of his makes were clean swishes, and he didn’t even need to get a kind roll or bounce until the final field goal that gave him 50. It was one of the most unconscious shooting performances I’ve ever seen.
I bring this up because Brown’s performance elevated him to an awards discussion that is increasingly threatening to go sideways.
This isn’t about Brown, whose play speaks for itself — he’s fifth in PER and has only missed two games, and his Celtics have the best net rating in the Eastern Conference despite Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury. But rather, it’s an entry point to a discussion about the unintended consequences of the league’s 65-game rule and whether it will essentially leave us with only two players standing — Brown and Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — in what otherwise would be an epic NBA MVP race.
Normally, Brown’s play might naturally lead us toward a quality vs. quantity argument about the merits of whether his playing a full season at this level was more valuable than somebody like Nikola Jokić playing roughly three-quarters of a record-smashing season for Denver. Even if Gilgeous-Alexander ultimately topped both of them, we would have spirited discussions about second and third, and further down the ballot, about the All-NBA spots regarding Jokić and several other elite players who have missed time.
You might be surprised to learn that these arguments existed long before “load management” was a term. In 1985, for instance, award voters determined that Bernard King’s 55 games as a Knick were sufficiently awesome to merit a first-team All-NBA selection.
But we won’t be having this debate in 2025, because it’s already decided for us. The 65-game requirement added to the 2023 collective bargaining agreement came as a response to load management, but actual, honest-to-goodness injuries threaten to make a mockery of it by leaving several of the league’s best players just a few games short of the threshold. Meanwhile, teams are still happily load-managing their ways through national TV games when they feel it’s in their interests, as Golden State did on Friday against Oklahoma City in the 131-94 thriller I attended, or as Denver did on Monday night in Philadelphia.
But at least now we have the added bonus that Jokić, who is having one of the greatest statistical seasons of all time by whatever metric you choose, won’t even make Third Team All-NBA.
We’re not even halfway through the season, and the list of elite players who are highly unlikely to meet the 65-game threshold is already staggering, including arguably four of the five best players in the league and one all-time great:
- Jokić, having an all-time great season, will be out until the end of the month, roughly, if not longer. If he comes back on Feb. 1, he will have to play every Nuggets game the rest of the season to be award-eligible, including all six back-to-back sets, and can only play fewer than 20 minutes in one of them. (He only played 19 in the game he was hurt; the league gives you a maximum of two.)
- San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, having a breakout third season and an absolute shoo-in for Defensive Player of the Year if he remains eligible, has missed 14 games already and played fewer than 20 minutes in another. He is helped by the “83rd game” San Antonio played in the NBA Cup final but still can only miss five games the rest of the season (the Spurs have 47 games left) and must play at least 20 minutes in all but one.
- Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time MVP who has quietly posted a jaw-dropping 35.1 PER in his 22 games, can only miss three games the rest of the way to be award-eligible. One of the 22 games he played doesn’t even count because three of his appearances this year have lasted fewer than 20 minutes.
- The Lakers’ LeBron James, of course, might no longer be an All-NBA player at age 41 after making one of the teams for the last 21 consecutive seasons. But the league will take the bat out of voters’ hands to decide if James misses just two more games.
Several other players have missed enough games to at least warrant some concern that they are one turned ankle away from award ineligibility. That list includes superstars such as Luka Dončić, Anthony Edwards, Steph Curry and Kawhi Leonard, and emerging stars such as Alperen Şengün and Austin Reaves.
At least they’re still potentially alive for awards. Oklahoma City star Jalen Williams, an All-NBA selection a year ago, is already ineligible, as are Aaron Gordon, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and Trae Young.
This is a sweeping rule that impacts much more than the MVP ballot. If you want to declare that somebody can’t be MVP with fewer than 65 games played, that’s one thing (even if the arbitrary endpoint here is maddening). But the league has gone way beyond this by saying that Joker, Wemby and Giannis can’t even be All-NBA Third Team picks if they play 64 games of demi-god-level basketball. It’s going to be hilarious when somebody like Julius Randle or Karl-Anthony Towns plays 67 games and takes Jokić’s All-NBA spot because he only played 62 or whatever, especially if Jokić still has played more total minutes.
The rules have impacts further down the food chain, too, particularly in All-Defensive team selection, where limited-minutes specialists can be a much bigger factor in the voting. Detroit’s Isaiah Stewart, for instance, has only missed three games but has played fewer than 20 minutes in six others. He has to make it to 20 minutes in at least 37 of Detroit’s remaining 47 games just to be All-Defense eligible; this is the same accidental dragnet that caught the Clippers’ Kris Dunn a season ago.
Finally, we should note that this isn’t just about trophies; it’s also about finances. For instance, if the ineligibility of Jokić, Wemby and others cleans out the field and results in Detroit’s Jalen Duren making third-team All-NBA, he becomes eligible for 30 percent of the salary cap as a restricted free agent next summer.
Jalen Williams already being ineligible knocks out the possibility of him getting a raise on his rookie extension as a result of an All-NBA selection; the deal he signed this summer would have paid him 26 percent of the salary cap if he made All-NBA Third Team and 30 percent if he made All-NBA First Team. On the flip side, his teammate Chet Holmgren could back into a Defensive Player of the Year award if Wembanyama isn’t eligible; that could have earned him several million dollars more per season (with knock-on effects on the rest of the Thunder’s cap) if it had been written into his extension this summer.
Chet Holmgren rises to defend a shot by Keldon Johnson. (Scott Wachter / Imagn Images)
The next big item of this ilk that may rear its head comes one year from now. If Wembanyama falls short of the 65-game threshold in 2026-27, he will be ineligible for the 30 percent of the cap “Rose Rule” raise on what will surely be a max contract extension he signs this summer.
If I could sum up my reaction to all this in one word, it would be “Why?” People in the league were annoyed by load management and drew an arbitrary yes/no line in the sand, and now we’re potentially looking at some jarring unintended consequences. Sure, maybe Joker and Wemby still get to 65, and everything turns out fine, but inevitably, one of these years it won’t work out as neatly.
The whole point of having people vote on the awards is to let them decide how many games are enough and how much impact a Nikola Jokić needs to make to outrank a Jaylen Brown while playing fewer games. We’ve lost that, and I’d argue it was a bad trade.
Cap Geekery: It’s Guarantee Week
We have a fun deadline for cap nerds this week. NBA contracts become guaranteed for the season on Jan. 10, in theory, but in practice, that guarantee date is Wednesday afternoon. Players must clear waivers in time for Jan. 10, and that process takes 48 hours.
When I say “guarantee,” however, I’m only referring to a small handful of deals. The vast majority of NBA contracts are fully guaranteed, and many of those that aren’t have earlier trigger dates for the guarantee to hit. (For example, the contract for Boston’s Neemias Queta became fully guaranteed when he made the opening night roster.)
That said, we are left with a few players who have little or no salary protection if they are waived by Wednesday afternoon at 5 p.m. Eastern. There are 30 of them, as Spotrac’s Keith Smith recently tallied, and of those, 28 are deals for the minimum. The two exceptions are partially guaranteed deals for Cleveland’s Dean Wade and Miami’s Terry Rozier, neither of whom is likely to be waived this week. Rozier is away from the team but already has $24.9 million of his $26.6 million salary guaranteed and is much more useful as matching salary in a trade than as a dead money cap hit.
Even for those 30 non-guaranteed players, the vast majority have been important enough to their teams that waiving them would be preposterous. Just in Atlanta, for instance, Vit Krejčí, Mo Gueye and Keaton Wallace have all been important enough that guaranteeing their deals seems like a no-brainer for the Hawks. (Let alone facing my uncontrolled wrath if they dared to waive Krejčí.)
However, a few of these situations seem rife for a “cut-plus-10” move, where the team waives the player but immediately signs them to a 10-day contact (as a reminder, 10-days can only be signed on or after Jan. 5 unless it’s an injury hardship contract), thus keeping the guy around but also preserving cap and roster flexibility until the trade deadline.
In particular, I think seven players would be possible or likely candidates for this maneuver: Indiana’s Micah Potter, Toronto’s Mo Bamba, Milwaukee’s Amir Coffey, Detroit’s Isaac Jones, San Antonio’s Bismack Biyombo and Lindy Waters III and New York’s Ariel Hukporti. The recently arrived Bamba, in particular, probably would already be on a 10-day if he had signed just a few days later. Indiana also already waived Tony Bradley, who would be another candidate to return on a 10-day. (I’ve noted this in the past, but Atlanta has no benefit from waving the injured N’Faly Dante, despite his non-guaranteed deal, due to the little-known scourge called “salary continuation payments.” He’ll almost certainly stay on the books through the trade deadline in case his $2.3 million salary is needed in a trade.)
While we’re here: I’d also expect to see some activity on two-way contracts this week. Most of those deals also guarantee Wednesday, and the two-way universe encompasses 96 mostly tenuous roster spots. However, because the money doesn’t count against the cap, a lot of teams don’t really sweat owing a guarantee.
Rookie of the Week: Kobe Sanders, 6-8 SG, Clippers
(This section won’t necessarily profile the best rookie of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)
Sometimes it’s a lot less nerve-wracking when you don’t have time to think about what’s happening. Shortly before the Clippers’ game against Golden State on Monday night, rookie guard Kobe Sanders found out there’d be a slight change in plans: He’d be replacing All-Star James Harden in the starting lineup. Sanders found out about the change “about when y’all did,” as he said after the game, but responded with a season-high 20 points as the short-handed Clippers — whittled down to an eight-man rotation — held off the Warriors 103-102.
A late-second-round pick out of Nevada (50th), Sanders has earned minutes partly because of the Clippers’ bench struggles but also because of his positional size and ball skills. The offensive side hasn’t always translated, but on a team that was routinely outrun, outjumped and outhustled during a miserable 6-21 start, his viability as a multi-positional defender with size and young legs has made him an important cog.
He’s also a bit more experienced than most recent draftees.
“Although I’m a rook, I played a lot of basketball in my life,” Sanders said. “I mean, I went to college for five years and played all five years. There’s not a lot of people that could say that.”
Two nights ago, it looked like the clock might be running out on his rotation gig, as the Clippers’ other vets were getting healthy and Sanders struggled with a bagel and four turnovers in a blowout loss to Boston. But the surprise start against Golden State turned the page; Sanders shot with confidence, hitting six pull-up jumpers off the dribble among his nine field goal attempts and chipping in with seven boards. These weren’t gimmes, either; five of them came over close contests.
“I just heard the small little knowledge that the NBA is consistency and opportunity,” Sanders said. “Now I’m blessed with opportunity, and I’m just trying to stay consistent.”
The ability to get to his jump shot under duress is what stood out in particular; at 6-8, he can always get his shot away against perimeter defenders. He did it to Moses Moody, Gary Payton II and Curry, among others, on Monday. Watch here as he drives into his office and gets his shot away on Payton, a top-notch defender:
Eventually, you’d like to see Sanders’ shot mix include fewer tough 2s and more 3s and layups (he did hit one deep bomb from several feet behind the line on Sunday). But if you’re going to pick nits with him, it’s less with his shooting efficiency than with his mistakes on shot-pass decisions. He had three turnovers on Sunday and has as many turnovers as assists on the season; that won’t cut it as a role player. This, for instance, was a very avoidable pick-six turnover on an autopilot kickout pass once his drive was stopped:
The poor turnover rate is why advanced stats are down on him despite solid shooting splits in his first 26 games as a pro, but it’s also something that, historically, some rookies can correct as they get more reps. Sanders has shown enough shooting promise and defensive capability to solidly fill a role if he can just make connecting plays more often when the shot isn’t there; if so, he’ll end up as a nice find on a Clippers roster that sorely needs inexpensive depth pieces.
