It’s been a wild, unpredictable NHL season. Parity has reigned supreme, a fair few supposed contenders are struggling mightily and we’ve already seen a couple blockbuster trades rock the league.
Still, if there’s been one bit of familiarity, it’s the two names at the top of the scoring race as we reach the season’s halfway mark.
While their clubs have endured notably different seasons to this point, the game’s pair of marquee offensive phenoms continues to prove they’re the class of the league — but which of the two will prove more valuable to their squad by the season’s end? And which other notable contributors around the league might prove even more crucial to their club’s success?
As we reach the midway point, let’s check in on who’s put forth the best case for the Hart Trophy:
The Avalanche phenom has been electric since Day 1. Kicking off the season with a four-game streak that saw him stack eight points in the season’s opening week, MacKinnon came out of the gates flying, putting up a league-leading 24 goals and 51 points through the first 30 games.
Though Connor McDavid’s wild December has moved the Edmonton Oilers captain into the Art Ross race’s top spot by a hair, MacKinnon remains first in the league with 35 goals (putting him on pace for nearly 70 by the season’s end), second with 74 points (putting him on pace for over 140), first in even-strength points (56) and even-strength goals (28), first in shots (192), and, for those who put any stock in the stat, first with a plus-48, too.
More importantly, his dominance has been mirrored by the success of his club. With MacKinnon the engine that drives Colorado forward, the Avalanche sit first in the league. Head and shoulders above the rest of the pack, the Avs have lost only four times in regulation through 42 tilts, their .821 points percentage towering over Dallas’s second-place mark of .682. Barring a second-half fall-off from No. 29 or his team, MacKinnon seems on a collision course for some hardware by the season’s end.
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
It’s been a much more tumultuous season in Edmonton. Fresh off back-to-back trips to the Stanley Cup Final and a mildly tense off-season that eventually resulted in a two-year extension for the Oilers captain, McDavid started the season somewhat slowly — at least by his standards. Since the start of December, though, No. 97 has run roughshod over the rest of the league.
The three-time Hart Trophy winner is riding a 16-game point streak that’s seen him collect an absurd 17 goals and 39 points, dotted with more than a few highlight-reel sequences of McDavid flying by defenders like it’s nothing. The run has moved him back to the top of the scoring race, and pulled his Oilers back into playoff mix, too — at the end of November, Edmonton sat outside the post-season picture, tied with three other clubs for a wild-card spot. Now, it sits tied with Vegas for the Pacific Division title.
There’s the question of how much supporting cast factors in here. McDavid has Leon Draisaitl, himself one of the most prolific scorers in the game, to work with. MacKinnon has Cale Makar, undoubtedly the league’s most dynamic offensive threat from the back end. In our season predictions, 11 of 19 Sportsnet Insiders predicted one of MacKinnon or McDavid would claim the Hart, myself included. The first half suggests that will hold true.
There’s no question who the most surprising entrant into the Hart Trophy race has been — just add it to the list of plot twists authored by Sharks phenom Celebrini in his sophomore campaign.
The 19-year-old exceeded everyone’s expectations by dominating the league through the first month, leading the NHL in scoring with 23 points through that early 15-game stretch. Fast-forward to the here and now, and the teenager is still up there, hanging with two of the most prolific talents in the game, having outscored everyone in the NHL not named McDavid or MacKinnon to this point. His 67 points through 43 games have already eclipsed the respectable total he put up as a rookie last season, and they leave the North Vancouver, B.C., product on pace to top 120 points. Strip away the noise and Celebrini’s been even more impressive, ranking second in the league in even-strength scoring with 49 points and tied for second in even-strength goals (20).
Celebrini’s breakout has already proven he deserves to be considered among the best in the world, as the Sharks talisman’s early dominance earned him an unexpected spot on the Canadian Olympic team. Just as impressive would be lifting the Sharks back into the post-season. It’s been six years since San Jose earned a ticket to the dance, and it was buried in the depths of the league’s basement in four of those six seasons. Now, the Sharks sit in a wild-card spot, firmly in the mix, with Celebrini pulling them forward.
The Lightning’s offensive leader is no stranger to this race. Kucherov has been a finalist for the award the past two seasons — he’s won the Art Ross the past two years, too, and earned an MVP nod from his fellow players in 2024-25. And the 32-year-old is in the thick of it all once again.
It’s been a roller-coaster year for the veteran Bolts. Dropping six of their first seven games, it seemed the Lightning might be headed for a humbling season like their rivals in Toronto. Injuries complicated matters further — blue-line stalwart and captain, Victor Hedman, has played only three games since early November, while Brayden Point, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brandon Hagel and Kucherov himself have all missed time with ailments, too. Still, despite the lineup tumult, the Lightning remain atop the Eastern Conference with 55 points, the fourth-highest sum league-wide.
The continued dominance of No. 86 has been pivotal to that sustained success. Despite having played a handful fewer games than everyone else in the top 10, Kucherov sits fourth in league scoring with 61 points through 38 games, keeping pace with the league’s best once again. The veteran has been especially dominant of late — over the past month, Kucherov’s 27 points rank second only to McDavid.
If not for the upper-body injury that knocked Bedard out of Chicago’s lineup a month ago, the 2023 first-overall pick might still be closer to the heart of this race. And yet, what’s transpired in Chicago since Bedard went down paints a clear picture of just how important the centre is to their cause.
Like Celebrini, the 20-year-old started 2025-26 on fire — after putting up a respectable 67 points last year as a sophomore, Bedard came flying out of the gates in Year 3, collecting 22 points through his first 15 games of the season. Through the opening month, he ranked second in scoring behind Celebrini, the pair of young phenoms seeming intent on ushering in the league’s next era sooner than expected. But an awkward play in the final moments of a game against St. Louis on Dec. 12 stymied Bedard’s ascent, forcing him to leave the ice clutching his shoulder. He’s remained out since, missing 11 games and counting.
At the time of his injury, though, Bedard was dominating. He sat second in league scoring with 51 points through 32 games — bested only by MacKinnon — a pace that had him on track for 130 points. Chicago, meanwhile, was firmly in the wild-card mix, sitting one point out. Since No. 98 went down, the club has dropped seven of 12 games, and now sits even further outside the playoff picture. With the 20-year-old’s return to the lineup imminent, if he’s able to return to the form he showed so far this season, a resurgent second half could move him back into the MVP race.
The Stars swung for the fences when they brought in Rantanen at last year’s trade deadline. The 2022 Cup champ proved how crucial he could be to their cause during his first post-season run with the club, putting up 22 points through 18 games as the Stars made it back to the conference final. Now, in his first full season in Texas, the star winger is showing the full weight of his potential impact.
The Finnish phenom has collected 59 points through 43 games for Dallas this season, ranking sixth in the league behind only the four names above and Draisaitl. He’s been especially deadly on the man-advantage, amassing the third-most power-play points in the league (26) and playing a key role in getting the Stars those opportunities, having drawn the second-most penalties in the league. For reference on how strongly Rantanen has started his tenure in Dallas, the 29-year-old reached the 50-game mark as a Star earlier this season — his 60 points in that span rank as the most anyone in franchise history has collected at that benchmark.
His club has reaped the benefits. With Rantanen rolling, Dallas has been the league’s second-best outfit this season, collecting 60 points and joining Colorado as the only two squads to reach that plateau. Before their recent slide, the Stars went on a run from early November to late December that saw them drop only three games in regulation, taking points in 20 of 23 tilts. He’s a longshot for the trophy compared to the names above — realistically, it’s down to MacKinnon, McDavid and Celebrini unless something changes significantly in the season’s latter half — but, on track for a career year, the veteran Finn’s contributions seem worthy of dark-horse consideration.
