NFL Wild Card DFS: Josh Allen, Nico Collins among top matchups to exploit for DraftKings lineups

My best advice for those building DraftKings lineups for this weekend’s Wild Card games would be to take a narrative-based approach.

Make sure your lineups tell a story, especially if you’re entering said lineup in a DraftKings contest with tens or hundreds of thousands of entries. Piece together a lineup as if you are correct. Don’t hedge.

Asking yourself some simple questions is a good place to start. If this quarterback and his two primary pass catchers go off, who on the other offense is likely to at least get a chance to go off? If a running back goes ballistic and a team is ultra run-heavy, that probably means the team’s QB and pass catchers won’t get there for DFS purposes. If your story includes a team facing negative (trailing) game script — the kind that generates lots of drop backs — it makes little sense to use the running back without a solid role in the pass game.

Think narratively in your lineup construction and I think you’ll make the sort of high variance lineups that either tank or explode in large-field DraftKings contests. Below are some thoughts about pass and run funnel matchups and who is most likely to benefit, along with ideas for team and game stacks.

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▶ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

Vegas total: 52.5 points

Buffalo’s offense, as always, will try to be run-heavy when they face the home underdog Jags this weekend. The assumption for those making DraftKings lineups, I think, should be that the Bills won’t be able to establish the run like they very much desire.

Only the Ravens and Eagles have a lower pass rate over the past eight weeks than the Bills, who have passed the ball on 51 percent of their plays since Week 11. In neutral situations — when the game is within one score — Buffalo has passed the ball at a 50 percent clip. A mere four teams have a lower pass rate over expected (PROE) than the Bills this season.

It’s a game plan I don’t think will work against a Jacksonville defense that has stalled almost every rush offense they’ve played in 2025. The Jaguars, as regular readers of this space know well, are the league’s most extreme pass funnel defense largely because they are an elite run-stopping unit, allowing the league’s second lowest rushing success rate and the lowest rate of missed tackles missed per rushing attempt. The Jaguars allow one of the league’s lowest rates of rush yards before contact.

This could mean Josh Allen and the Bills are forced to turn to the pass, assuming normal game script. We’ve seen Buffalo shift toward the pass against pass funnel defenses, including in Week 10 when they were four percent over their expected pass rate against the pass-funnel Bucs. It was the Bills’ highest PROE of the season.

Fading Cook and stacking Allen with a couple of his pass catchers would help you get unique in large-field DraftKings tournaments this week. That would likely include Allen alongside Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, his two primary pass catchers out of the slot. The issue here is that the Jaguars secondary has shut down opposing slot guys all year. So it’s not an ideal matchup for either Kincaid or Shakir. Even so, they are the only two Bills pass catchers I’d want to stack with Allen. Think of it this way: If the Bills are going to have to move the ball through the air, someone is going to have to catch Allen’s passes.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, face one of the NFL’s most pronounced run funnel defenses in the Bills, who have seen opponents pass at a 50 percent neutral rate in neutral script since Week 11. That could mean a heavy dose of Travis Etienne against a Buffalo defense allowing a top-10 rate of rush yards before contact. Long runs against the Bills were fairly common in 2025. Only the Giants and Dolphins gave up more yards on explosive rushes than the Buffalo defense. And the Bills will be without run-stopping DT Jordan Phillips, who on Wednesday was placed on IR with an ankle injury. They’re already without DT Ed Oliver, whose practice window was not opened this week. Some are calling it a situation to monitor.

If you want to get cute with your game stacks — cute can do quite well in huge DFS fields with small slates — Bhayshul Tuten might be in play alongside Bills players. Last week against the Titans, Tuten saw five carries to Etienne’s 14 and ran for 23 yards and a touchdown. Importantly, Tuten led the team in inside-the-ten rushes against Tennessee and has been the preferred goal line option when healthy.

A quick note on the Jaguars pass offense: Parker Washington, who enters the playoffs on a heater, leads the team with a 24 percent targets per route run rate against two high safety coverage. The Bills, meanwhile, play two high safeties at the NFL’s fourth highest rate (58 percent).

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▶ Carolina Panthers (-10.5) vs. LA Rams

Vegas total: 46.5 points

The Panthers in their Week 13 upset of the Rams were something beyond run heavy. Carolina had a 33 percent neutral pass rate against the Rams that day, with Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard splitting 35 rushing attempts and Bryce Young throwing just 20 passes (three of which went for touchdowns).

Desperate to keep the ball away from Matthew Stafford, the Panthers were a stunning 20 percent below their expected pass rate against LA that day. It’s a formula they will do anything to repeat in the Wild Card round, for a back-and-forth affair is a guaranteed loss for Bryce and company.

And they might be able to hammer the Rams on the ground as long as game flow doesn’t go haywire. The Rams finished the regular season as the NFL’s fourth most pronounced run funnel defense; seven of their final nine opponents were below their expected pass rate. Dowdle, with a 28-15 rushing attempt edge on Hubbard over the team’s past three outings, would be the favorite to lead the Carolina backfield in touches if they’re able to run it early and often against an LA defense giving up the NFL’s seventh highest rate of rush yards after contact.

Both Carolina backs are decent options if you’re looking to stack this game, even if it’s a so-called mini stack (using a Panthers RB and a Rams WR, for instance). That the Panthers could have OG Rob Moore (elbow) back from a lengthy absence would further boost the Carolina rushing attack against a middling Rams front seven.

If you anticipate the Panthers having to ditch the run-heavy stuff, consider Tommy Tremble as a cost-saving tight end play against LA. Young has targeted Panthers tight ends (and running backs) heavily against zone coverage in 2025 and hardly any defense plays more zone than the Rams. Tremble last week ran a route on 86 percent of Young’s drop backs with Ja’Tavion Sanders on injured reserve. Tremble caught three of his four targets and scored a touchdown in Week 18. He is quietly (very quietly) a nice little option on this six-game slate.

The Panthers are also getting back a few key defensive starters they did not have in their Week 13 upset of the Rams, and Carolina’s defensive coordinator said the unit’s focus would be stalling the LA run game. That makes sense considering the Rams went for 152 rushing yards and two scores on just 20 carries while averaging 4.1 yards after contact per rush. A fourth quarter deficit is the only thing that prevented the Rams from going for 200 rushing yards against a banged-up Carolina front seven. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, who have been mostly splitting carries in the LA backfield, are both decent options and nice pivots if you’re trying to get away from the Stafford-Puka-Adams chalk in large-field DraftKings contests.

Puka Nacua strikes me as the kind of short-slate chalk you simply eat. Don’t overthink playing a wideout being used across the formation, seeing a target on almost 40 percent of his routes. A mini-stack featuring a Carolina running back and Nacua makes sense if you’re into it.

Puka Nacua and the Rams are heavy favorites over the Panthers in the Wild Card Round, making them one of the best bets in DraftKings Playoff Best Ball drafts.

▶ New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. LA Chargers

Vegas total: 46

Drake Maye is the only young NFL quarterback who isn’t addicted to the check down. The young man is willing to throw into the teeth of two high safety looks instead of taking the short pass again and again and again. For that we should be grateful. Maye is a throwback of sorts.

Maye’s willingness to rip it into two high coverage looks will be put to the test in the Wild Card round against an LA defense that uses two high safeties at the league’s second highest rate (58 percent), trailing only the Vikings. In two games against the Bills — another defense that plays two high coverage at a high rate — Maye didn’t exactly light the world aflame. He completed 35 of 53 pass attempts for 428 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception in those two outings.

Even in a tough Week 15 outing against the Bills (155 scoreless yards through the air) Maye didn’t stop slinging it. He averaged a healthy 11 air yards per throw in that game, higher than his season average of 9.2 air yards per attempt. So his relative lack of production against shell coverage is not for lack of trying.

Stefon Diggs leads the Patriots with a 26 percent target per route run (TPRR) against two-high shell coverage this season. With his route rate creeping upward in the season’s final few weeks, look for Diggs to be a magnet for Maye against the Chargers. Mack Hollins on injured reserve mercifully clarifies the air yards eat role in the Pats offense. It now belongs entirely to Kayshon Boutte, who last week against Miami saw a team-leading 38 percent air yards share. Boutte is something close to a must if you’re determined to stack Maye with a couple of his pass catchers. Boutte — who led the NFL in EPA per target this season — is a high variance option, but one with tremendous upside, especially if the Patriots have to play from behind.

There’s no way around it: Rhamondre Stevenson is the clear pass-catching back out of the Pats backfield, as little sense as that makes. Stevenson over the final three games of the regular season ran a route on 62 percent of the team’s dropbacks while TreVeyon Henderson logged a 21 percent route rate. Henderson over those three outings led the Patriots with 37 carries to 23 for Stevenson. The rookie’s total lack of pass game involvement makes him a big play reliant option and a thin bet to be part of a lineup that wins a little money this weekend. Stevenson is a sneaky stacking option alongside Maye, Diggs, and perhaps Boutte.

Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman gets his wish in the Wild Card round with a matchup against an extreme run funnel defense. No team has faced a lower pass rate over expected since Week 11 than New England; all nine of their opponents over that span were below their expected pass rate. Pats opponents had a 49 percent neutral pass rate from Week 11-18, with several pass-heavy offenses shifting hard to the ground game.

If that’s the case here — and I think it should be — any sort of target volume for Chargers pass catchers is going to be harder to find than my children’s shoes ninety seconds before the school bus is scheduled to arrive. Ladd McConkey remains the nominal WR1 for LA. His 25 percent target share over the regular season’s final five games translated to a meager 4.1 targets per game. McConkey and a high-variance air yards specialist like Quentin Johnston could be stacking partners alongside Justin Herbert, I suppose, if the Chargers get down early and have to abandon a run-heavy attack. I’m not sure I’m willing to bet on that though.

Omarion Hampton has a good chance of seeing that sweet, sweet touch volume in neutral game script against the run-funnel Patriots. Hampton over the season’s final three games — excluding Week 18, when the team benched most of their starters — led Kimani Vidal in rushes, 45 to 17. Hampton ran more routes and had a comfortable target lead over Vidal too. Reportedly “working through” his months-long ankle injury, Hampton is a candidate for 20-plus touches against New England that’s been vulnerable to decent rushing attacks. Only the 49ers and Commanders allowed a higher rushing success rate than the Pats over the season’s final eight weeks. That the Patriots gave up the seventh lowest passing success rate over that stretch makes me think Roman will do anything and everything to go mega-giga-turbo run heavy.

A way to stack this game in accordance with how these teams are likely to attack each other might look like this: Henderson along with Maye, Diggs, and Boutte, and possibly Stevenson.

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▶ Chicago Bears (+1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

Vegas total: 45.5 points

The blood fued between Matt LaFleur and Ben Johnson — who may have taken the Chicago head coaching job specifically to torment the Packers head coach — reaches its logical 2025 conclusion with a Wild Card matchup a few weeks after the Packers’ sideline mysteriously lost heat on the sideline at Soldier Stadium on the coldest night in recorded history. If there’s an over-under for length of the postgame handshake between Johnson and LaFleur, it needs to be set at 0.09 seconds.

In Jordan Love’s only full game against the Bears — he was sidelined with a brain injury in Week 16 — he piled up 290 air yards, well above his season average of 241 air yards per game. He’s in a good spot this week against a Chicago defense that just isn’t very good beyond creating turnovers in key situations — a defensive model that isn’t exactly repeatable or reliable. The Bears pressure the passer at a 21 percent rate, a bottom ten mark in 2025. Love should be able to operate from a clean pocket if LaFleur lets him cook even a little bit.

A Love stack would have to include air yards consumer Christian Watson — who went for 89 yards and two scores on four targets against Chicago in Week 14 — and perhaps Jayden Reed, who led the Packers with a 24 percent target per route run rate in Week 14.

The Packers, as you know if you’re a loyal reader of this space during the regular season, are one of the most reliable run funnel defenses in football. Green Bay opponents have established it hard, especially since Week 10, running the ball at a 54 percent rate in neutral situations. Against the Packers in Week 14, the Bears — who very much want to establish it — had a 46 percent neutral pass rate. In Week 16 against the Pack, they eased off the run a bit with a 54 percent neutral pass rate. Chicago was 6 percent below its expected pass rate in both matchups against the Packers. That might be because Green Bay’s defense has allowed a top-seven rushing success rate since Week 10.

This, as you may have surmised, should generate lots of carries for D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. Swift over two games against the Packers this season had a slight edge on Monangai, 26 carries to 23 carries. Swift has run 44 percent of the team’s routes over the past six games while Monangai has a 28 percent routes rate. Monangai is in play based strictly on the Bears’ likely run-heavy approach, but Swift has multiple avenues to viable fantasy output if game script gets out of whack here.

Rome Odunze is interesting if he can finally suit up and play through his foot injury. The Packers have been more than a little vulnerable against boundary receivers for much of the season: They’ve given up the league’s third highest adjusted yards per attempt (9.9) and the sixth highest completion rate (66 percent) to boundary wideouts since Week 10. Odunze’s DraftKings tournament rostership this weekend will likely make him a contrarian option in a quietly excellent spot.

If you’re intent on stacking Caleb Williams here, Colston Loveland is a must after he emerged as perhaps the team’s top pass catcher in the final few weeks of the regular season. He now gets a matchup against a Green Bay secondary allowing the sixth highest completion rate over expected to slot pass catchers. This should also benefit Luther Burden, another solid stacking partner with Williams. A true Bears onslaught stack would be Williams, Burden, Odunze, and Loveland, and perhaps Swift.

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▶ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Vegas total: 44.5 points

Going heavy on this game in DraftKings Wild Card tournaments is going to feel gross and wrong. No one is going to want to put a bunch of Eagles in their lineup after the offense’s utterly dysfunctional end to the regular season, and hardly anyone is going to be thrilled about throwing 49ers players into their lineup against a ferocious Philadelphia defense that flattens both ground attacks and passing offenses.

There’s blood in the water here, as stock knowers might say. I think that makes this game a good pivot off more popular Wild Card matchups.

A.J. Brown is in a good spot, the kind of spot in which he often thrives as the Eagles’ primary downfield guy. San Francisco plays two high safety coverage at a bottom-ten rate, leaning heavily on one high safety looks. Brown against one high safety coverage this season has been targeted on 33 percent of his routes, averaging 13.3 air yards per target. Jalen Hurts goes his way against this kind of secondary, and I’d expect the same here.

If you tell the story of a big Hurts stat line against a vulnerable Niners defense, DeVonta Smith is likely to come along for the ride. Against a 49ers defense allowing the seventh highest drop back EPA since Week 10, a Hurts-Smith-AJB stack makes a lot of sense. Part of this stack’s appeal lies in its relative unpopularity on short slate.

Who to run back for the Niners? Philly’s secondary is a nightmare matchup for all comers, particularly wideouts. Jauan Jennings, I guess, could get there for fantasy purposes with enough drop back volume in negative game script for the Niners, especially with Ricky Pearsall unlikely to play. George Kittle is a tough play against an Eagles defense allowing the fourth fewest tight end targets per game and the second fewest tight end receiving yards. The Eagles essentially shut down the middle of the field.

That leaves Christian McCaffrey, an easy outlet for Brock Purdy who has seen increased target volume in negative game script. McCaffrey this season is averaging 8.6 targets per game in 49ers losses. The Niners, meanwhile, have a 67 percent pass rate when trailing this season, the NFL’s fourth highest rate. Trailing script for Kyle Shanahan’s squad could translate to double digit targets for CMC in the Wild Card round. McCaffrey had at least nine targets in in seven games during the regular season.

▶ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) vs. Houston Texans

Vegas total: 39.5 points

This game represents the true pivot of this six-game DraftKings slate for obvious reasons. These are two defense-oriented teams and this game features one offense (Pittsburgh) that doesn’t seem all that interested in scoring points. Giving a warm lineup-building hug to this ugly little matchup will make your DraftKings rosters a hell of a lot different than those who greedily devour the chalk in large-field contests.

If you have the stomach to stack the game with the week’s lowest total (by far), you would start with C.J. Stroud and Houston pass catchers. The Texans, thanks in part to lacking a viable running back. A Stroud lineup has to include Nico Collins, one of the most dominant WR1s in the NFL based on his share of air yards and targets.

Collins’ matchup is a good one: The Steelers are allowing a top-5 adjusted yards per attempt on passes to boundary wideouts this season. Alec Pierce, Christian Watson, Justin Jefferson, and Tee Higgins have all had big games against Pittsburgh in 2025 operating primarily from the outside. Steelers opponents have taken full advantage of a secondary that plays one high safety coverage at one of the NFL’s highest rates. Only four teams use two high safeties at a lower rate than the Steelers.

Dalton Schultz, seeing a target on 24 percent of his pass routes over the final three games of the regular season, would make sense as a stacking partner with Stroud and Collins. If you’re feeling greedy, Jayden Higgins can join this Houston stack as a high-variance wideout option averaging almost 13 air yards per target since Week 13. If the story of your DraftKings lineup is one in which Stroud cooks, Higgins has a great chance of making a big play or two.

DK Metcalf and Kenneth Gainwell, I think, are really the only Steelers players who constitute viable run back options opposite a Houston stack. Before he was suspended for two games for getting physical with a professional troll, Metcalf was benefiting bigly from the team’s willingness to let it rip a little more. It was a shift that led to a massive increase in total team air yards, most of which were going Metcalf’s way. In a trailing script against the Texans, Metcalf would have at least a chance to go off, I think.

Gainwell is probably going to be a popular DraftKings option thanks to the platform’s full PPR scoring. Still, he makes more than a little sense as a run-back option here. Gainwell has 35 targets over the past five games. He’s been targeted on 28 percent of his routes over that stretch. And against a Texans defense that leads the league in quick QB pressures, expect Aaron Rodgers to get the ball out as fast as possible. The elder millennial QB is dead set on not taking the big hit, and for good reason. Gainwell could reap the benefits of that.

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