Here’s Your January Outlook
After a few months of La Niña conditions, it is expected to fizzle out mid-winter with a transition to ENSO-neutral, according to a monthly update released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. This summer could see the emergence of El Niño.
Transition To ENSO-Neutral
As La Niña weakens and we transition to ENSO-neutral, ocean temperatures will warm in the east-central equatorial Pacific.
La Niña occurs when the ocean’s surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific reach a specific cooler-than-average temperature. El Niño is the warming of the same area of the Pacific and has a different set of weather effects around the planet.
This image highlights the cooler than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Niño Conditions Could Develop This Summer
ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to persist at least through late spring, according to NOAA. After which, there’s a chance we could see El Niño conditions develop as we move into the summer or fall.
For those of you already thinking ahead to hurricane season, this could be good news.
El Niño typically means fewer Atlantic hurricanes because there is stronger wind shear present, making it more difficult for storms to develop. However, it is still too early to determine exactly if and when we could see the shift to El Niño and how strong it could be.
What This Means For Our Weather
La Niña and El Niño’s effects on the equatorial Pacific can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away, including near the U.S., as well as globally.
While it isn’t nearly close to the only driver of weather patterns, La Niña usually means a warmer winter in the South and a colder winter in the Northern Plains. It also typically brings a wetter-than-normal winter in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, and a drier winter for the South.
With a transition to ENSO-neutral, ENSO will not play quite as strong a role in our weather. However, La Niña may continue to have a lingering influence through the early spring, according to NOAA.
Miriam Guthrie graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with an undergraduate degree in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and is now a meteorology intern with weather.com while working toward her master’s.
