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When the 49ers and Eagles met in the NFC Championship at Lincoln Financial Field in January 2023, San Francisco ran out of quarterbacks.
Brock Purdy tore his UCL in his throwing elbow and Josh Johnson suffered a concussion, which left the 49ers without a healthy option under center.
This weekend, the 49ers are practically out of linebackers. Fred Warner, Tatum Bethune, Dee Winters, and Nick Martin are all dealing with injuries, which thrusts Eric Kendricks into the middle of the defense.
Can Kendricks, the team’s fourth starting middle linebacker this season, help keep a star-laden Eagles offense out of the end zone? Here are our predictions.
Offensive star of the game
Kawakami: Christian McCaffrey. If it’s not him, the 49ers probably will be in some trouble against a Vic Fangio defense that would love to load up against the 49ers’ middle-of-the-field passing game. But the Eagles’ defense has been hit on the ground a few times this season. And oh, the 49ers are 8-0 this season when CMC has more than 68 rushing yards. I think Purdy could have some magic moments in this game, but it likely will come down to McCaffrey vs. the Eagles’ D.
Lombardi: Purdy. The 49ers again have the better quarterback — Purdy clears Jalen Hurts, who has gone multiple halves without a single completion this season. But it takes more than owning the QB advantage. A team must build the platform necessary for him to shine. So how much support does Purdy need? Against Philadelphia’s defense, which boasts a gaudy 40.2% pressure rate, the availability of star left tackle Trent Williams would be nice. So would the space-making presence of receiver Ricky Pearsall. Both of those players missed last week’s loss to the Seahawks, which spelled doom for the 49ers against an excellent defense. Purdy has shown that he will produce if given the chance.
Defensive star of the game
Kawakami: Ji’Ayir Brown. With the 49ers in a full scramble just to get healthy bodies on the front seven, there’ll be a lot of responsibility on their safeties to prevent Saquon Barkley & Co. from breaking loose. Which is literally a hit-or-miss proposition for the 49ers, as we’ve seen all season. But Brown is the best candidate to grab an errant Hurts pass or knock around a few Eagles playmakers.
Lombardi: Eric Kendricks. Prepare for addition by subtraction at middle linebacker, where Tatum Bethune had been overwhelmed prior to tearing his groin against Seattle. The 49ers added the veteran Kendricks for this specific fill-in purpose and he’s had six weeks to study Robert Saleh’s playbook and terminology. After weeks of 49ers’ gap misfires from the linebacker position, expect Kendricks — even if he’s no longer a spectacular athlete at age 33 — to restore order on the second level. And that’ll be huge against Barkley and the run-heavy Eagles.
The 49ers’ potential X-factor
Kawakami: Eagles’ offensive dysfunction. The Eagles clearly are more talented right now, but they’re also more emotionally fragile after their year-long offensive woes under coordinator Kevin Patullo. What happens if the 49ers get an early lead and force a few Eagles punts? The Philadelphia crowd might get very antsy. The team might get antsier. The tenser it gets, the better for the 49ers.
Lombardi: Kyzir White. It doesn’t sound like White will start next to Kendricks, although the 49ers are understandably holding their plans close to the vest. But given the way the linebacker position has evolved, it’s absolutely plausible to see White somehow seeing significant snaps. And if that happens, remember that White racked up 137 tackles just last season — and that it’d be impossible for the 49ers to see worse linebacker play than what they dealt with for much of Week 18.
The key stat to track
Kawakami: 49ers’ rushing attempts — can they get close to 30? Boring stat. But it’s Kyle Shanahan’s No. 1 barometer for all games (he was very displeased when they only got 12 vs. Seattle last weekend) and especially the biggest ones. With Pearsall a question mark and Williams wobbly, the 49ers need to go downhill in this game. If they can’t …
Lombardi: Third-down conversion rate. Last week, the 49ers went only 2-for-9. They took only 42 offensive snaps as a result. Seattle absolutely dominated possession. Relative to the rest of the season, though, the 49ers’ performance on third down was an aberration. They were the NFL’s No. 1 team here.
And yes, it’s also worth noting that Philadelphia ranked No. 24 in third-down conversion rate this season. These leverage situations loom even larger in high-stakes games, and success (or failure) in them is largely quarterback-dependent. Kendricks said this week that the 49ers’ defense must “eat its vegetables” on first and second down to set the table for third-down stops. The inverse is also true: Purdy and Co. must set the table with efficient early downs so that they face a tempered Eagles’ pass rush on third downs.
Game prediction
Kawakami: Eagles 24, 49ers 17. Do the 49ers have a path to victory on Sunday? Sure. They’re a gutsy team that has proven it can dig out tough games. They’ve got players who can lift everything. But given the mass accumulation of 49ers injuries, the Eagles just have too many good players and too many advantages to predict anything else.
Lombardi: Eagles 27, 49ers 24. Back to Square One. I picked the Seahawks to narrowly beat the 49ers back in Week 1. Purdy’s crew, much closer to full health back then, proved me wrong. And that wasn’t the first time the 49ers defied the odds. No one will forget what happened in Week 5 at SoFi Stadium. Does this depleted squad have enough magic left to build a bridge to Fred Warner’s return? I’ll say no — and we’ll see how the 49ers respond.
