How Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders compare to rookie years of 5 Pro Bowl QBs: By the numbers

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Browns finished the 2025 season with five wins and a dilemma in the quarterback room.

Do they give Dillon Gabriel another chance, or move forward with Shedeur Sanders? Or do they get rid of both and draft a quarterback in April?

We don’t know what they have in mind out in Berea.

But we can do something on our own by evaluating both 2025 draft selectees.

There are a number of ways to evaluate rookie quarterbacks. We will do so through the lens of analytics and data.

There will be 10 statistical categories.

Beneath each, will be the totals from Gabriel and Sanders this season. But they won’t be alone within the compare and contrast.

The AFC examples

Depending on how a rookie performs, you always look to compare and contrast to someone miles ahead.

We’ll do just that with five quarterbacks. But not just any quarterbacks.

We’ll list five quarterbacks from the AFC that currently start for the teams that drafted them.

Gabriel and Sanders both started six or more games, so each AFC example has to have done the same in their rookie years.

Their individual rookie season totals by each category will also be listed, right beneath the totals from Gabriel and Sanders.

• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (2018, Rd. 1, No. 7)
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (2018, Rd. 1, No. 32)
• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (2020, Rd. 1, No. 1)
• Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (2020, Rd. 1, No. 6)
• Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (2021, Rd. 1, No. 1)

This 2025 season was a tryout for Gabriel and Sanders to prove they have long-term potential.

It’s best to use five current guys who star in the AFC, and see how they performed as rookies, to best evaluate the ceilings for Gabriel and Sanders.

Various categories will be in use from time to throw, to sacks responsible for, to air yards per completion, and more.

Quickest time to throw

From Next Gen Stats, this category measures the average amount of seconds it takes for the quarterback to release the pass, with sacks excluded.

Typically, it’s bad to hold onto the ball too long. But it’s excused if a quarterback’s mobility is used to extend the duration of a play.

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in quickly getting rid of the ball?

1. Gabriel, 2.73 seconds
2. Sanders, 3.24 seconds

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Burrow, 2.65 seconds
2. Herbert, 2.69 seconds
3. Lawrence, 2.87 seconds
4. Jackson, 3.1 seconds
5. Allen, 3.22 seconds

Completion percentage

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in completion rate?

1. Gabriel, 59.5%
2. Sanders, 56.6%

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Herbert, 66.6%
2. Burrow, 65.3%
3. Lawrence, 59.6%
4. Jackson, 58.2%
5. Allen, 52.8%

Completion percentage under pressure

This stat comes from Pro Football Focus and tracks the completion percentage from quarterbacks when throwing under pressure in the pocket.

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in completion rate when pressured?

1. Gabriel, 50.8%
2. Sanders, 41.7%

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Herbert, 57.0%
2. Jackson, 54.0%
3. Lawrence, 38.4%
4. Burrow, 37.3%
5. Allen, 28.3%

Throwaways

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in recording as few throwaways as possible?

1. Gabriel, 3
2. Sanders, 18

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Jackson, 6
2. Herbert, 7
3. Burrow, 8
4. Allen, 17
5. Lawrence, 18

Sacks/Sacks responsible for

One side is the total sacks taken. On the other side is the sacks each quarterback is responsible for.

This PFF category tracks how many sacks quarterbacks were held accountable for, as opposed to the blocking or other factors.

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in avoiding sacks?

1. Gabriel, 19/4
2. Sanders, 23/11

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Jackson, 16/8
2. Allen, 28/4
3. Burrow, 32/9
4. Herbert, 32/9
5. Lawrence, 32/13

Air yards per completion

Deriving from Pro Football Reference, air yards per completion measures how many yards of a pass play are covered by the ball traveling through the air, as opposed to the receiver running with the ball after the catch.

For example, a 40-yard pass might include 20 air yards and 20 yards by the receiver after the catch; or 10 air yards and 30 yards after the catch.

In general, air yards can indicate how much a quarterback is able to execute completed passes down the field as opposed to checking down to short routes.

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in logging air yards per completion?

1. Sanders, 4.8
2. Gabriel, 4.0

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Jackson, 6.9
2. Allen, 6.7
3. Burrow, 5.9
4. Lawrence, 5.6
5. Herbert, 5.4

Big-time throws

This PFF statistical category focuses on the location and timing of the pass to the targeted receiver, with an emphasis on the depth of the pass.

A big-time throw is an exceptional pass that an average NFL quarterback wouldn’t make on a given pass play.

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in big-time throws?

1. Sanders, 10
2. Gabriel, 3

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Herbert, 31
2. Lawrence, 22
3. Allen, 17
4. Burrow, 15
5. Jackson, 6

Turnover-worthy plays

This PFF stat tracks the number of passes thrown that have a high likelihood of being intercepted and plays where the quarterback did a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbles it in a way the defense could recover.

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in recording as few turnover-worthy plays as possible?

1. Sanders, 15
2. Gabriel, 10

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Jackson, 10
2. Burrow, 15
3. Herbert, 16
4. Allen, 22
5. Lawrence, 26

Deep (20+) passing completions

This PFF category tracks the number of completions that traveled 20 or more yards downfield.

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in completing deep shots?

1. Sanders, 9 of 24
2. Gabriel, 2 of 8

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Lawrence, 19 of 62
2. Allen, 18 of 63
3. Burrow, 9 of 48
4. Jackson, 5 of 13

Red zone completions

The red zone ranges between the 20-yard line to the end zone.

This category derives from Fantasy Pros and tracks rate of completions within the red zone.

How did Gabriel and Sanders perform in completing passes within the red zone?

1. Gabriel, 15 of 32
2. Sanders, 8 of 13

How did the examples perform in this area?

1. Herbert, 41 of 73
2. Burrow, 30 of 55
3. Lawrence, 21 of 47
4. Jackson, 9 of 22
5. Allen, 8 of 21

Final results

The final rankings of these quarterbacks will go by adding up their rankings in each category.

Think of it like golf. You want the lowest number possible, for that will imply you ranked highly in these categories. The lower you ranked in these categories, the bigger your overall number is.

How did Gabriel and Sanders rank?

1. Gabriel, 14
2. Sanders, 16

How did the AFC examples rank?

1. Herbert, 21
2. Burrow, 28
3. Jackson, 28
4. Lawrence, 35
5. Allen, 38

Conclusion

It was a close count between Gabriel and Sanders, but Gabriel’s season displays slightly better production by each category.

Though Sanders outperformed him multiple categories. Such as in deep-pass completions, having completed more (9) than Gabriel attempted (8).

Both have visible weaknesses to work on. But compared to the AFC examples, they fit right in the middle in numerous categories.

This proves they have what it takes to survive in the NFL. Whether that’s in Cleveland or elsewhere.

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