Caley’s prediction: Indiana enters Friday’s CFP semifinal with the upper hand.
Jan 9, 2026 • 18:23 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Oregon Ducks Indiana Hoosiers NCAAF
The Peach Bowl hosts an all–Big Ten College Football Playoff Semifinal, with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and top-ranked Indiana facing Dante Moore and the Oregon Ducks for a berth in the National Championship.
The matchup is a rematch of their thrilling October showdown in Eugene, won by the Hoosiers.
My Oregon vs. Indiana predictions break down why an encore is in store on Friday night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Read more in my college football picks for January 11.
Oregon vs Indiana predictions for the Peach Bowl
Who will win the Peach Bowl?
Despite the Hoosiers entering the College Football Playoff Semifinal undefeated and led by a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, some still hesitate to call them the best team in the country.
That skepticism comes from the logo on the helmet, not the product on the field. It’ll be close, but Mendoza & Co. get the job done.
Oregon vs Indiana best bet: Indiana -3.5 (-110)
Back in October, Indiana prevailed in Eugene 30–20 as 6.5-point underdogs, buoyed by two interceptions from Dante Moore.
With the Hoosiers listed as 3.5-point favorites this time around, the swing in the line is warranted. Indiana is talented, well-coached, and operating at another level after making Alabama look like a G5 team.
Oregon running back Jordon Davison being ruled out is also a major blow; he made up one-half of the Ducks’ potent rushing attack. Expect Indiana to force Moore into a critical mistake, cover the spread, and continue this epic run.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Oregon vs Indiana same-game parlay
Mendoza has thrown for 3,172 yards with 36 touchdowns and just six interceptions this season, averaging 227 yards per game. While he only threw for 192 in the Rose Bowl against Alabama, that came on just 16 attempts, and he barely threw the ball in the second half.
A big chunk of those yards and touchdowns has gone to Elijah Sarratt. The wideout has scored a conference-leading 13 touchdowns, finding the end zone in nine of his last 10 games, including the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl.
Oregon vs Indiana SGP
- Indiana -3.5
- Fernando Mendoza Over 208.5 passing yards
- Elijah Sarratt anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: A QB’s best friend
A QB’s best friend is their tight end. With two strong defenses on the field, expect both pivots to target their TEs in the red zone for scores.
Oregon vs Indiana SGP
- Fernando Mendoza Over 208.5 passing yards
- Charlie Becker anytime touchdown
- Dante Moore Over 216.5 passing yards
- Kenyon Sadiq anytime touchdown
Oregon vs Indiana game predictions
Oregon vs Indiana spread prediction
Indiana has been the best team in college football all season, and that won’t change in the Fiesta Bowl.
Oregon will miss the physicality of Jordon Davison against this tough Hoosiers defense, forcing Dante Moore to throw more — and potentially into mistakes.
Oregon vs Indiana Over/Under prediction
Even without Jordon Davison, Oregon still boasts a talented offense. Dante Moore has improved as the season has progressed, and he now has a mostly healthy offensive line and wide receiver room.
Combine that with Indiana’s elite offense, and these Big Ten heavyweights should push the Fiesta Bowl past this number.
Oregon vs Indiana odds
- Spread: Oregon +3.5 (-110) | Indiana -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oregon +154 | Indiana -184
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
Oregon vs Indiana trend to know
Indiana has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games (4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Indiana.
How to watch Oregon vs Indiana
Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date
Friday, January 9, 2026
Kickoff
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Oregon vs Indiana latest injuries
Oregon vs Indiana weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
More Oregon vs Indiana predictions
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Pages related to this topic
