Who will win the Super Bowl? Who’s feeling the heat? The Athletic staff’s NFL playoff predictions
Picking a Super Bowl champion this season should come with a warning label: Do so at your own risk.
But The Athletic’s NFL staff still welcomed the daunting task of predicting how the most unpredictable NFL playoffs in recent memory will unfold when the postseason kicks off Saturday.
Our writers were asked a variety of questions — which team is under the most pressure, who will win the AFC and NFC titles, who will win the Super Bowl — and understandably, nearly every question yielded a variety of answers. Our writers’ explanations are below, if you want to hold them to their predictions.
But that feels especially cruel. Because in this inexplicable year, almost anything could happen en route to Santa Clara.
A quick look at the AFC playoff field and the most popular answer to this question should come as no surprise. The Buffalo Bills garner more than 70 percent of the vote from our staff members, many of whom note the obvious — Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are all at home this postseason. It feels like now or never for Josh Allen’s Bills. Observing a team that has lost six straight playoff games and employs a 42-year-old quarterback, our writers also believe pressure is mounting for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, a team that “sleepwalked through a lot of the season,” are among our staff’s answers as well.
Alec Lewis, Vikings writer: “Buffalo. The Bills haven’t made a Super Bowl with Josh Allen. And here they are in a playoffs without Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.”
Jeff Zrebiec, Ravens writer: “The Bills, and I say that obviously knowing that they are the sixth seed. With nemesis Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs not in the playoffs and other standout quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow also at home, there’s a perception that this is Josh Allen and the Bills’ best opportunity yet. Fair or not, they’ve been close for a while, and it feels like things are well lined up for Allen to get to the Super Bowl.”
Chad Graff, Patriots writer: “Buffalo Bills. The AFC couldn’t be more wide open. Sure, it’ll likely take three road wins to get to the Super Bowl. But the conference is there for the taking.”
Jayna Bardahl, NFL writer: “The Steelers. Pittsburgh backed into the playoffs, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is probably on his last run, and Mike Tomlin shouldn’t feel too comfortable just yet — especially after the rival Baltimore Ravens parted ways with John Harbaugh. The Houston Texans’ defense is a difficult wild-card test.”
Brooks Kubena, Eagles writer: “The Pittsburgh Steelers. With Mike Tomlin on the hot seat, nothing shakes up an offseason like a change at head coach. And if they have to also do a full offensive reset without Aaron Rodgers? Woof.”
Dan Pompei, NFL writer: “Eagles, because of the bar they set last year.”
Ken Bradley, NFL senior editor: “Los Angeles Rams. At one point, they were the No. 1 seed in the NFC and Super Bowl favorites. They seemingly have the easiest first-round draw in Carolina, but they lost to the Panthers in Charlotte in Week 13, and it would be a shame for Matthew Stafford’s MVP-caliber season to end there.”
Who is one non-quarterback who will have a huge impact on the playoffs and why?
Who was the best wide receiver in the league during the regular season? You could argue that distinction is between the Rams’ Puka Nacua and the Seattle Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The two NFC West receivers take the top spots in our poll, with Nacua earning nine votes to seven for Smith-Njigba. And we stay in the NFC West with do-it-all star San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, whose five votes were good for third place. The top defensive answers: Texans pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. and Seahawks rookie safety Nick Emmanwori with three votes each.
Zac Jackson, Browns writer: “Puka Nacua. If 25 targets are necessary, he’ll get 25 targets.”
Mike Jones, NFL writer: “Puka Nacua, because his prolific regular season will continue in the postseason, where he and the Rams have a good shot at making a deep run.”
Dave Niinemets, NFL senior editor: “Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks defense will show up, but if their offense is to do its part for a Super Bowl run, their best player will have to be spectacular. JSN will rise to the occasion.”
Tim Graham, Bills writer: “Will Anderson. The AFC’s field of quarterbacks is either highly sacked (Justin Herbert 54 times, Trevor Lawrence 41 times, Josh Allen a career-worst 40 times), inexperienced in the playoffs or both (second-year QB Drake Maye was sacked 47 times). Anderson recorded 12 sacks, 23 QB hits, 20 tackles for losses, three forced fumbles and two recoveries.”
David DeChant, NFL senior editor: “Nick Emmanwori. A rookie? Yes. He’s not the Seahawks’ best defender, but he’s the rug that ties the room together, allowing Mike Macdonald to play nickel against any personnel. Seattle’s defense averaged 0.15 EPA per play with Emmanwori on the field and 0.07 with him off it in the regular season.”
Josh Kendall, Falcons writer: “Cam Little. The Jacksonville Jaguars are dangerous. They lead the league in point margin by a mile since Week 11 (plus-153), and their kicker can score from anywhere, which could be key in a close game.”
Who will be in the AFC Championship Game, who will win and why?
Though our writers tab the Bills as the team facing the most pressure, many of them also believe Allen and company will make good on the high expectations. Buffalo receives 38 percent of the votes here to be the AFC’s Super Bowl representative. The top-seeded Denver Broncos have their fair share of backers, too, with writers citing an elite defense and Mile High’s home-field advantage as the biggest catalysts. It’s been a wild and unpredictable year. So, six of our writers ask: Why not the Jags?
Graff: “Buffalo Bills at the Denver Broncos. Bills win. Simply put: It’s time.”
Mike DeFabo, Steelers writer: “Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos. If Josh Allen and the Bills are ever going to crack through, the time is now in a wide-open field without an obvious favorite and no Patrick Mahomes.”
Ian O’Connor, senior writer: “Denver over New England. The Patriots are a year away. Home-field advantage combined with elite defense and coaching and very sound QB play is a winning Broncos formula on the road to the Super Bowl.”
Jim Ayello, NFL senior editor: “I hate the AFC. I don’t truly believe in any team in that conference. But forced to pick, I’ll take the Broncos, mostly for mathematical purposes, as they have to win only one game to get there. And for a similar reason, I’ll take the Patriots to make the conference title game. I don’t think the banged-up Los Angeles Chargers pose much of a threat, so while it’s not a bye, New England has the easiest path to Round 2. Give me the Broncos as AFC champs. The defense isn’t actually elite, but it is still good and can slow down the Patriots, while Denver’s offense can do just enough to win.
Lewis: “Jacksonville and New England. I’m taking Jacksonville. Why? Because it’s one of the weirder years ever, so why not?”
Jeff Howe, NFL writer: “Jags beat Texans. The Jaguars’ offense hasn’t slowed down for anyone, and Liam Coen has this group soaring with confidence.”
DeChant: “The Patriots and Texans. In a conference full of untrustworthy teams, give me the quarterback (Drake Maye) and defense (Houston) that were most trustworthy in the regular season. This would be the Texans’ first AFC Championship Game appearance … and oh, what the heck, they’ll make their first Super Bowl, too, winning 20-16 in Foxboro.”
Who will be in the NFC Championship Game, who will win and why?
Our writers take a sharp turn away from chaos when it comes to their picks for NFC champion. Two teams stand above the rest: the Seahawks and Rams.
Oddsmakers had the Seahawks pegged at around 7.5 wins in August, only to watch coach Mike Macdonald, quarterback Sam Darnold, Smith-Njigba and an elite defense win 14 games, the NFC West title and home-field advantage. Winning a playoff game at Lumen Field? Our writers believe that is too much to ask of most of the NFC field.
The Rams had a messy end to their regular season, but it’s not enough to deter our writers. They believe in quarterback Matthew Stafford, who could be this year’s NFL MVP.
If you’ve been searching for bulletin board material for the rest of the NFC’s playoff field, look no further. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles earned just two votes. Neither the Green Bay Packers nor the second-seeded Chicago Bears received a single vote to win the conference.
Mike Sando, NFL writer: “Seahawks over Rams. I’m banking on this game featuring the two best teams in the NFC over the course of the season, in a rematch of their fateful Week 16 game.”
Nick Kosmider, Broncos writer: “Seahawks and Rams. This matchup would mean the Seahawks first had to knock off the 49ers in the divisional round, while the Rams beat the Panthers and the Bears on the road. In a rematch of one of the season’s most thrilling games back in Week 16, the Seahawks, behind a roaring crowd at Lumen Field, make the defensive play at the end to win it.”
Paul Dehner Jr., Bengals writer: “Eagles at Seahawks. Seattle wins. Feels like Philly has been biding its time waiting for the postseason to put it all together, but I don’t think anybody is going into Seattle and winning this postseason.”
Josiah Turner, NFL senior editor: “Seahawks vs. Rams. These two have been the best teams in the conference all season, in my opinion. They split during the regular season, and both games came down to the wire — with the latest being an overtime thriller. Give me the Rams for all the NFC marbles. Matthew Stafford has played at such a high level this season, and he’ll likely have Davante Adams back in the fold to give him an edge in the red zone.”
Dan Wiederer, Bears writer: “Rams over Eagles. Los Angeles earns its get-back game — and a victory — over Seattle in the divisional round, then proves it is the most complete team in the conference in upending the reigning NFC champs.”
Vic Tafur, 49ers writer: “Rams and Seahawks. Rams win. Sam Darnold is just not that guy, sorry.”
Matt Schneidman, Packers writer: “Seahawks-49ers — 49ers get their revenge because their offense rebounds from that Week 18 dud.”
Who will win the Super Bowl and why?
The Athletic‘s NFL staff picked eight teams as Super Bowl LX champions in our poll — evidence of how unpredictable this postseason might be. Even more remarkable? The two leading picks had received a combined zero votes to win the Super Bowl in our preseason poll.
The Seahawks and Rams are those choices, getting two-thirds of the votes to win it all. The Bills are the top vote-getter from the AFC, with writers once again believing Allen makes the biggest difference. Perhaps one of these streaking AFC South teams — the Texans and Jaguars — could win it all for the first time; they have two votes each. Two other voters say the Eagles go back-to-back.
Dan Duggan, Giants writer: “Seahawks beat Bills. The Seahawks have been the best, most balanced team in the NFL. That should propel them through a wide-open playoff field.”
Kubena: “Rams over Texans. Defense wins championships, but the Rams have a top-eight defensive unit, too. Stafford and their No. 1 offense outgun a young Texans team on the rise.”
Zak Keefer, NFL writer: “Rams 31, Broncos 24. Sean McVay wins his second title in five seasons, cementing him as one of the all-time greats. Same goes for Matthew Stafford, who wraps a season that began with injury concerns with a Super Bowl MVP.”
Mike Sansone, NFL senior editor: “Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars winning the Super Bowl would be the perfect ending to a bizarre NFL season. A Jags-Seahawks Super Bowl is probably not what NBC envisioned for its self-proclaimed ‘greatest day in sports,’ but at this point, would you be surprised?”
Nate Atkins, Rams writer: “Texans. In a year of suppressed offense and without the usual elite quarterbacks in the AFC, it’s DeMeco Ryans’ defense that takes control to continue a wild run for a team that began 0-3 before finding itself.”
Joe Buscaglia, Bills writer: “Rams over Bills. In what has been a wild and unpredictable season, having two wild-card teams meet in the Super Bowl just feels right. The Rams’ overwhelming offense, mixed with a defense that challenges you in multiple ways, makes me pick them on the surface, but it’s a toss-up.”
Pompei: “Philadelphia over Denver. It’s a wide-open field, but no team has more talent or experience than the Eagles.”
