For the gambling degenerates, here are my Wild Card Round NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Rams (-10.5) at Panthers: The Panthers played their best game of the season against the Rams back in Week 13, when they ran it 40 times for 164 yards, and Bryce Young was efficient when they threw, completing 15 of 20 passes for 206 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs. They successfully shortened the game, won the turnover battle 3-0, and outlasted the Rams in a major upset that would ultimately have NFC seeding implications.
A lot of things had to go right for the Panthers to win that day, and they did. Credit them for making big plays both on offense and defense.
But ultimately, the Rams are simply the far more talented team, and lightning is unlikely to strike twice.
Packers (-2) at Bears: The Packers and Bears both enter the playoffs on losing streaks. The Bears dropped two straight close games to the 49ers and Lions, while the Packers enter the postseason having lost four straight, to the Broncos, Bears, Ravens, and Vikings.
The Packers have lost four major contributors for the season to injuries:
- EDGE Micah Parsons: Torn ACL
- TE Tucker Kraft: Torn ACL
- C Elgton Jenkins: Broken fibula
- iDL Devonte Wyatt: Broken ankle
Parsons is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, Kraft was having an All-Pro type of season, Jenkins is one of their two best offensive linemen, and Wyatt is a good starter. It’s hard to lose that kind of firepower and make a playoff run.
The players who are still available got to rest their bodies a bit, as the Packers sat starters Week 18, and Jordan Love will return to the field in the playoffs after missing the last two games.
The Bears haven’t made the playoffs since the 2020 season and they haven’t won a playoff game since the 2010 season. That means that they’re not battle tested, but it also means that Soldier Field is going to be rocking on Saturday if the Bears get a lead.
This matchup feels pretty simple to me. The Packers are too banged up to make any kind of playoff run, and the Bears led the NFL with a turnover differential of +22. Love will make some mistakes in front of a hostile crowd, and the Bears advance.
Bills (-1.5) at Jaguars: We’re used to seeing the Bills in the playoffs, and despite their lack of a Super Bowl appearance during the Josh Allen era, they have won at least one playoff game every year in each of the last five seasons. I assume that is why they are favored in this matchup over the Jags, who haven’t even been to the playoffs since the 2022 season.
But the Bills are unimpressive to me. They have a high-powered rushing attack, and that’s about it. They might have the least threatening passing game weapons of any team in the playoffs, and they struggled to stop the run for the vast majority of the season.
Meanwhile, the Jags have won eight straight, with a point differential of +153 (!) in those games, or average margin of victory of 19.1 points. This team is legit, and arguably the hottest team in the NFL entering the postseason.
49ers at Eagles (-5.5): The 49ers’ offense was on fire near the end of the season, as they had a six-game winning streak during which they scored 36.7 points per game. And then they got hammered by the Seahawks Week 18 in a 13-3 game that wasn’t as close as the score might indicate.
Their offense was a weird study this week. They score points, but when you drill down on some specific areas of their offense, they don’t feel super impressive. For example, Christian McCaffrey was second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage, and yet he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and had his worst broken tackle stats of his career. Also, they love working the middle of the field, which would have been a good thing in years past against the Eagles, but not anymore with the Eagles’ star power at linebacker and in slot corner Cooper DeJean.
On the other side of the ball, the injury-depleted 49ers can’t rush the passer, they’re coming off one of the worst tackling performances of the entire season (league-wide), their small corners are theoretically bad matchups for the Eagles’ receivers, and the Eagles are rested while the 49ers were on the wrong end of a physical beatdown a last Saturday against the Seahawks.
The Eagles’ offense has been extremely disappointing this season, but they got an ideal first round matchup. Close game, Eagles win, unsatisfyingly.
Chargers at Patri*ts (-3.5): I like the Chargers’ defense quite a bit, but the Patriots have scored at least 26 points in each of their last eight games, and at least 23 points in each of their last 14 games. They scored 30 or more points in eight of their games. They’re consistent, and occasionally explosive.
The Chargers have major injury issues on their offensive line, and they can’t protect Justin Herbert, so at least his stans will have another excuse when he’s one-and-done in the playoffs again.
Texans (-3) at Steelers: In my opinion, the Texans and Eagles have the two best defenses in the playoffs, with the Seahawks a close third.
However, the Steelers’ style of play could match up well against Houston. Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out quickly, which should help offset the Texans’ awesome pass rush duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter to some degree. And on the back end, Derek Stingley (oblique) and Kamari Lassiter (ankle/knee) are both on the injury report.
I like the Texans to win, but I think it’ll be a close game that could go either way. Against the spread, I’ll take the Steelers and the 3 points.
Survivor pick ☠️
Let’s reset with a new playoff survivor pool, because why not?
The Rams are the no-brainer play in the Wild Card Round over the Panthers.
• Wild Card Round: Rams
• Picks against the spread: Bears (+2), Jaguars (+1.5), 49ers (+6), Steelers (+3).
• Eagles picks: 10-7
• 2025 season, straight up: 174-95-1 (0.646)
• 2025 season, ATS: 50-56-2 (0.472)
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 499-432-24 (0.535)
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