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Here are 5 higher ed predictions for 2026

During an academic year where everybody is planning for everything, colleges are striving to tighten their operations across all fronts to triumph over seismic changes to the sector.

Here are a few higher education threads that leaders should begin preparing for now.

Deeper investment in short-term credentials

Short-term credentials and certificates have grown increasingly popular since the pandemic. The movement will drive deeper federal, state and institutional coordination to evaluate program quality and workforce outcomes.

Over 30 states have invested a combined $8.1 billion in short-term workforce credentials in 2025, a $2.5 billion increase over last year. Fall enrollment in undergraduate certificates has risen by 14.7% since 2023, outpacing any other credential by at least 6.5 percentage points.

The growth in microcredentials, digital badges, certificates and other forms of non-degree credentials intersects public and political skepticism about whether degrees are preparing learners for a changing workforce. As a result, employers are increasingly considering skills-based hiring while evaluating candidates’ traditional credentials.

“Policymakers are hearing from their constituencies that there’s a need for skilled workers in key industries that require education and training beyond the high school level but that don’t necessarily require a two-year or a four-year degree,” says Kermit Kaleba, strategy director for Credentials of Value at Lumina Foundation, a nonprofit focused on higher education attainment.

Check out last year’s forecast: Here are 6 promising higher ed predictions for 2025

State financial aid programs like Fast Forward in Virginia and the Gap Tuition Assistance Program in Iowa have expanded access to short-term credentials, which have historically been paid out of pocket by students.

Such financial investment has encouraged agencies, accreditors and higher education nonprofits to evaluate the quality of short-term credentials more closely. In June, Lumina invited 12 states to join an 18-month initiative to strengthen employer engagement, data quality assurance and student support.

“States are thinking of how to build these investments toward better outcomes,” Kaleba says. “We need to make sure folks are getting these credentials and that they translate into job placement.”

The Trump administration’s approval of Workforce Pell will further transform some current short-term credentials, but first, they must be retooled to meet rigorous federal requirements to receive financial aid.

“We talk about Workforce Pell like this thing that could be magical,” said Aaron Thompson, president of the Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education. “We’re not sure how yet, but it could be.”

Graduate programs in crisis

Colleges and universities will have to brace for significant downturns in postgraduate enrollment, particularly in healthcare, law and STEM programs.

The Trump administration’s recent move to eliminate Grad PLUS loans and reduce the lifetime cap on professional loans will significantly limit financial aid for students, particularly those from minority backgrounds. To control postgraduate program costs, institutions will need to explore consolidating programs, limiting course options and increasing scholarship funding.

Cost, combined with tightened visa processing and travel restrictions, has added further burdens on international students wishing to enroll in the U.S.

This spells particular trouble for programs in computer science and multiple engineering disciplines, in which international students comprised more than half of all credential completers at the graduate and doctoral levels in 2024.

“Programs at your big state universities are going to get significantly cut,” says Robert Atkins, CEO of Gray Decision Intelligence, a higher ed data and software firm. “Those who teach those classes know that they’re teaching a heavily international class and that they’re not going to have those students next year.”

International enrollment has already begun trending downward. A 41% decline in year-over-year webpage visits to Studyportals, an international recruitment service, suggests a potential $6.2 billion in lost revenue across all U.S. postgraduate programs by fall 2026, according to Gray DI.

“There’s no obvious way to refill these programs with domestic students,” Atkins says. “We’re going to get hit twice: Once in higher ed, and then in our ability to fulfill roles in the workforce.”

Increased college partnerships

Institutions will collaborate at unprecedented levels as they look to shore up finances and adapt to changing student demographics.

“Among the crowded middle- and small-sized institutions, I think those with under 1,000 students are the most vulnerable on their own these days,” Michael Horowitz, chancellor of the Community Solution Education System, a consortium of six colleges and universities.

Beyond the standard merger or acquisition, the Community Solution Education System invites multiple colleges to share resources—from marketing, IT and enrollment services—to maximize costs.

“As more colleges circle the possibility of closing, they must do more together because it’s a better way to use resources,” Horowitz says.

Course sharing and shared academic pathways among established medium- to large-sized universities will also increase. Several partnerships that emerged in 2025 include The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, with Arizona State University and Fairleigh Dickinson University with Rowan University.

“If you can find innovative universities that want to accelerate innovations, they should work together, pool their resources, pool their assets and find ways to accelerate their ability to impact more people,” said Arizona State President Michael Crow.

Adult re-enrollment hits a new stride

More students who previously stopped out of college are re-enrolling in higher education at record rates. Re-enrollment will increase further thanks to deeper assistance from state leadership.

While efforts have historically taken place at the institutional level, recent partnerships across Nebraska, Illinois and Minnesota join a growing cohort of successful statewide initiatives. New Jersey has re-enrolled over 13,000 students across 22 participating colleges and universities.

Efforts across California and North Carolina have also proven successful.

Re-enrolling adults with existing credit in higher education can be an effective way for states to solve labor shortages, says Ruth Bauer, president of InsideTrack, a student coaching service.

Nearly three-quarters (72%) of jobs in the U.S. will require postsecondary education or training in the next five years, according to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce.

“It just becomes the logical solution for a state to solve its economic needs,” Bauer says.

Campus dialogue becomes a strategic priority

In October, presidents and senior staff from Brown University, Yale University, Duke University and six other Ivy League and Ivy Plus institutions convened in Washington, D.C. to share models and practices that foster campus dialogue.

Dialogue has become an especially important skill for students during the age of social media, says Mylien Duong, chief impact officer at the Constructive Dialogue Institute, which organized the event.

“The picture that students are seeing is more polarized and controlled by algorithms. A lot of the schools were focused on creating environments where they can get students off their phones and engage with each other face-to-face.”

Secondly, campus safety, student harassment and discrimination have become focal points of the Trump administration. Institutions looking to avoid scrutiny will boost staffing, resources and incentives that embed opportunities for campus dialogue throughout student life.

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