This year’s freshman class in college basketball looks like it is going to be one of the better ones we’ve seen in a long time. Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson, Caleb Wilson, and others have been among the most impactful players in the nation and are likely to continue their success in the NBA. Quietly emerging in the middle of that noise sits Illinois stud Freshman Keaton Wagler.
Unlike the guys I mentioned, Wagler was not a McDonald’s All-American, not a preseason one-and-done lock, and not someone anyone had pegged as a future lottery pick six months ago despite being the No. 1 player coming out of Kansas.
That part has changed quickly as the 18-year-old is only getting better and better as Illinois’ season progresses. Averaging 15.5 PPG, 5.2 RBG, & 3.7 APG while shooting 46% from the field & 40% from 3.
Dec 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) during the second half against the Southern University Jaguars at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Even though those are great stats, especially for a freshman, I think Wagler’s consistency has been the story. The efficiency, decision-making, and lack of freshman sloppiness are what really stand out. What started as a “nice surprise” on a veteran Illinois team has now turned into something bigger. Mock draft websites have been slotting him higher and higher as each week passes. ESPN recently slotted him late first round. Bleacher Report and NBADraftRoom have already pushed him into the lottery conversation. Wagler isn’t just filling a role for Illinois; he’s building an archetype that NBA teams care about.
So let’s walk through what kind of player he is, why people and NBA teams are excited, and what kind of player he could become.
Wagler can be described as a combo guard with good length at 6’6. His core and balance pop more than his shoulders or frame, which is usually a good indicator for future finishing and foul absorption once the weight room catches up. There’s plenty of room for him to bulk up over the next few years. The type of thing that tends to get NBA scouting departments drooling because it means untapped upside rather than finished product.
He’s not as explosive in the traditional sense as some of the other prospects in the upcoming draft class. He’s more craft than burst and more pacing than pop. That’s where the footwork and body control show up. A trait that demonstrates Keaton’s level of maturity. The ability to get defenders off their timing and the general smoothness that comes with his game are hard to teach but easy to build upon. You can see the long-term outline even if he’s far from his eventual NBA frame.
NASHVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 06: Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) shoots a 3-pointer over Tennessee Volunteers forward Cade Phillips (12) and guard Amaree Abram (77) during a game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Illinois Fighting Illini, December 6, 2025, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The shooting touch is the easiest sell. He’s shooting around 40% from deep on real volume (4.9 3PA). He doesn’t take difficult shots, and he understands his role within the spacing. Illinois doesn’t need him to be a 20-point scorer, but if they did, it’s easy to imagine how the shot profile could stretch.
Playmaking & Decision-Making
His 3.7 assists to 1.4 turnovers tell the story that he has smart reads and an understanding of where the ball should go. He’s not a PnR surgeon yet, and he’s not bending defenses off the dribble like a high-usage NBA guard does, but you can see the outline of someone who understands the game.
The best part is that Wagler doesn’t need the ball all the time. He screens, cuts, relocates, and maps the floor like a vet. Freshmen don’t usually do that without being told. NBA teams are increasingly focused on off-ball guards who can shoot and process the game quickly. Mostly because they can plug into any team without suffocating the offense. Wagler checks that box loudly.
Bleacher Report floated a Jamal Murray comp, and honestly, I think it is fitting. Not because Wagler is at that level right now, but because the archetype matches, in my opinion. Scoring craft > raw burst, shooting touch, pacing, balance, and a very High IQ player. Murray entered the NBA as more of an off-ball guard before the development of on-ball creation. Wagler believes that the same developmental arc will occur if the handle and strength follow suit.
TORONTO, CANADA – DECEMBER 31: Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets shoots the ball during the game against the Toronto Raptors on December 31, 2025 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images
Wagler is now sitting in the mid-to-late lottery window for 2026 (10–25 range depending on which mocks you like), and the league has a long track record of betting on this kind of build with those picks: wing-sized guards who can shoot, process, and scale up roles slowly.
His floor is higher than most freshmen because he already fits off-ball. His ceiling depends on whether creation and frame come along for the ride. If they do, you’re talking about a legitimate long-term starter in a loaded draft class. And the good news for Illinois and NBA scouts is that there are many more games for him to continue showcasing his talent.
He is trending towards being the highest-drafted Illini in a long time, and I cannot see what the future holds for him.
