The Cubs made their second big move of the week on Saturday night, agreeing to a five-year deal with free-agent infielder Alex Bregman that gives them a clear upgrade at third base over Matt Shaw and an infield surplus to work with.
Bregman bounced back from a miserable 2024 season, hitting .273/.360/.462 in what turned out to be his only year with the Red Sox. His production was more than good enough for him to opt out of his three-year deal there and sign a five-year, $175 million deal with the Cubs.
Boston helped him change his setup, bringing his hands forward and closer to his body, which helped him get back to pulling the ball in the air more and likely helped him do more damage on fastballs. He also reverted to his pre-2024 approach, swinging less in general and cutting his chase rate closer to where it was in 2020-23.
He was at his best before the quad injury that cost him seven weeks. He was hitting .299/.385/.553 in 226 plate appearances at the time of the injury, then hit .250/.338/.386 in 269 PA afterwards. That could just be the random nature of smaller samples, but I wonder if he wasn’t able to generate the same power with his legs, given that he came back more quickly this time than he did when he suffered a quad strain in 2021.
Bregman will turn 32 in March, and there are some warning signs in his batted-ball data that he might be slowing down. He is still an elite hitter in his ability to recognize pitches and square them up, which gives me some hope that he’ll hold his value as a hitter into his 30s better than the average free agent in that age range. For the short term, it’s a comfortable two-win upgrade for the Cubs, and it improves their infield defense right after they acquired Edward Cabrera, who had the highest ground-ball rate in 2025 of any of their projected starters at 46.6 percent.
The Cubs now have one infielder too many, and they’re going to end up trading someone. The most obvious candidate is Shaw, whose rookie season was a disappointment at the plate thanks to some frequent mechanical changes and, according to people I’ve spoken to, resistance to help from the Cubs’ staff. He also made his priorities clear when he left the team during the pennant race to attend a political rally, missing a game the Cubs lost 1-0.
Shaw hit everywhere in the minors and mashed during his brief demotion to Triple-A Iowa in 2025 as well, but his approach in the majors was a 180-degree shift, undisciplined and often defensive. I don’t think that’s who he is or will be as a hitter, but that, combined with the makeup questions after his choice in September, would make him the ideal person to trade.
The Cubs’ other option is to move Nico Hoerner, who is one year from free agency — the opposite end of the spectrum from Shaw, who has six years of team control left – and coming off a 6.2 bWAR/4.8 fWAR season, both career bests. Hoerner is set to make $12 million, a bargain for his level of production, but the Cubs may prefer to trade him now for a modest return rather than let him go for draft picks — if that’s even still in place for the next CBA — after the season.
While the decision ultimately depends on what the market offers for the two players, I’d be much more inclined to keep Hoerner and field the best possible team in 2026.
The signing leaves Boston with a hole at third base when they were already probably looking at a hole at second base. The Red Sox do have Ceddanne Rafaela, a natural shortstop, and they at least seem to be considering putting him at second. But he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball, and his 22 Outs Above Average were the highest for any player other than two catchers who got credit for pitch-framing.
They also have shortstop Marcelo Mayer, who didn’t hit well in his debut and needs to rework his lower half to have a chance to hit breaking stuff. He’s also too good a shortstop to move him to another position permanently. And then there’s Kristian Campbell, who won a job out of spring training and signed an eight-year contract with the Red Sox, but struggled badly in his debut and wasn’t great after a demotion to Triple A.
The obvious answer for Boston would be to sign Bo Bichette, who needs to move off shortstop anyway and might be a 5-win player if he slides to third or second and is at least a 55 defender at either spot (which I’m saying is a realistic expectation). I’d rather have Bichette than Bregman anyway, and he’s at least capable of backing up Trevor Story at short. That would give the Red Sox some more flexibility as they try to figure out whatever position Bichette isn’t playing, including time for Mayer and/or Campbell to work on their respective issues in Triple A. I suppose they could always make a third trade with St. Louis and go get Brendan Donovan, but I’d spend the extra money on Bichette rather than trade more prospect depth for Donovan.
