Data Skrive
The Miami Heat (20-18) battle the Oklahoma City Thunder (32-7) on January 11, 2026 at Paycom Center. Oklahoma City is a double-digit 14.5-point favorite against Miami when the Thunder play the Heat on Sunday. The game’s over/under is 235.5.
Check out everything you need to know to know about the Thunder-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.
Thunder vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds
- When: Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
- TV: FDSSUN and FDSOK
- Live Boxscore: FOX Sports
Thunder vs Heat Betting Information Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Thunder -14.5 -106 -114 235.5 -110 -110 -901 +610
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Thunder vs. Heat Prediction
ATS Pick: Heat (+ 14.5)
O/U Pick: Under (235.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 122 – Heat 111
Thunder vs. Heat Betting Insights
- Of 39 games thus far this season, the Thunder have had 12 with more than 235.5 points scored, their current matchup’s point total.
- A total of 20 Heat games this season (out of 38) have had more than 235.5 total points scored.
- These two teams average 240.9 points per game combined, 5.4 more than the over/under of 235.5.
- Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 225.9 points per game, 9.6 fewer than the over/under for this game.
- Oklahoma City has won 32, or 82.1%, of the 39 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
- Miami has won in 10, or 47.6%, of the 21 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
- Oklahoma City has won both of its last two head-to-head matchups against Miami.
- The Thunder also have a 1-0-1 record against the spread when facing the Heat.
- Against the point spread, the Thunder have not covered for four consecutive games, and they were favored in all of them.
Thunder Recent Trends
- The Thunder have gone 6-4 over their last 10 contests, with a 3-7 record against the spread in that span.
- Oklahoma City’s average total over the last 10 games is 3.5 points fewer than the 235.5 total listed for this matchup.
- Against the spread, the Thunder are 19-20-0 this year.
- Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 9-7 in its 16 games when favored by 14.5 points or more so far this season.
- Thunder games this year have hit the over on 20 of 38 set point totals.
- The 121.3 points per game the Thunder average are only 3.7 more points than the Heat give up (117.6).
- Oklahoma City is 17-8 against the spread and 24-1 overall when scoring more than 117.6 points.
- This season, the Thunder have a 48.8% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.9% higher than the 45.9% of shots the Heat’s opponents have knocked down.
- Against the spread, the Thunder have played better at home, covering 11 times in 21 home games, and eight times in 18 road games.
- In terms of over/unders, Oklahoma City hits the over more consistently at home, as it has gone over the total 11 times in 21 opportunities this season (52.4%). In road games, it has hit the over nine times in 18 opportunities (50%).
- In home games, the Thunder have won more consistently as a moneyline favorite, putting up a record of 18-3 (.857). In away games, they are 14-4 (.778) as a moneyline favorite.
Thunder Recent Stats
Stat Average Rank Points Scored 121.3 2 Points Allowed 108.3 1 Rebounds 43.9 18 Assists 25.7 17 Steals 10.4 1 Blocks 5.6 5
Thunder Leaders
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 31.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocks.
- Chet Holmgren puts up 18.2 points, 8.3 boards and 1.6 assists per game, shooting 57.5% from the floor and 37.7% from beyond the arc with 1.4 made treys per contest.
- Ajay Mitchell posts 14.2 points, 3.4 boards and 3.7 assists per contest, shooting 47.6% from the floor and 35.3% from beyond the arc with 1.1 made treys per game.
- Jalen Williams puts up 17.6 points, 5.1 boards and 5.8 assists per contest. Defensively, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.4 blocks.
- Cason Wallace averages 7.5 points, 2.1 assists and 3.1 rebounds.
Thunder Player Props
Points O/U Points Over Odds PPG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.5 -114 31.9 Jalen Williams 17.5 -132 17.6 Chet Holmgren 17.5 -125 18.2 Ajay Mitchell 12.5 -102 14.2 Aaron Wiggins 9.5 -125 10.4
Heat Recent Trends
- The Heat have gone 5-5 in their last 10 contests, with a 6-4 record against the spread in that span.
- Miami and its opponents have combined to score an average of 238.1 combined points in its last 10 games, 2.6 more than the 235.5 over/under in this matchup.
- The Heat are 21-16-1 against the spread this year.
- Heat games this season have gone over the total in 18 of 38 opportunities (47.4%).
- The Heat put up 11.3 more points per game (119.6) than the Thunder give up to opponents (108.3).
- Miami is 19-8 against the spread and 17-10 overall when it scores more than 108.3 points.
- The Heat’s 46.7% shooting percentage from the field this season is 3.2 percentage points higher than the Thunder have allowed to their opponents (43.5%).
- This year, the Heat are 11-8-0 at home against the spread (.579 winning percentage). Away, they are 10-8-1 ATS (.526).
- In terms of the over/under, Miami’s games have finished over 47.4% of the time this season, both at home (nine of 19) and away (nine of 19).
- As moneyline favorites, the Heat have won a higher percentage of games at home (9-5) than on the road (1-2).
Heat Recent Stats
Stat Average Rank Points Scored 119.6 5 Points Allowed 117.6 20 Rebounds 45.8 6 Assists 28.4 7 Steals 9.3 6 Blocks 4.5 19
Heat Leaders
- Norman Powell is averaging 23.8 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest. He’s also draining 48.2% of his shots from the field and 41.5% from beyond the arc, with 3.0 triples per contest.
- Kel’el Ware is averaging 12.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 0.6 assists per game. He’s sinking 54.7% of his shots from the floor and 43.0% from beyond the arc, with 1.2 treys per contest.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. gives the Heat 16.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game while posting 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
- Bam Adebayo gets the Heat 16.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per contest while putting up 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocked shots.
- The Heat are receiving 15.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game from Andrew Wiggins this season.
Heat Player Props
Points O/U Points Over Odds PPG Norman Powell 21.5 -106 23.8 Bam Adebayo 14.5 -112 16.8 Andrew Wiggins 12.5 -114 15.8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. 11.5 +102 16.2 Kel’el Ware 9.5 -132 12.0
FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
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