Chelsea’s 3–1 victory at Cardiff City in the quarter-finals snuffed out the last whisper of a Carabao Cup fairytale, and now we’re left with three of the so-called “Big Six,” as well as the competition’s holders.
Newcastle United ended their 70-year wait for a major domestic trophy by beating Liverpool 2–1 in last season’s final, and back-to-back victories over Premier League opposition mean they’re still in with a shout of retaining their crown.
While previous Carabao Cup affairs are snappy and decided in one-off fixtures that go straight to penalties in the event of a stalemate after 90 minutes, the semi-finals are more drawn out. These ties will once again be played over two legs, with the victors of each enjoying a Wembley day out in mid-March, where the first piece of silverware in the English football calendar will be up for grabs.
Here are Sports Illustrated’s predictions for the first legs of the 2025–26 Carabao Cup semi-finals.
Newcastle United vs. Manchester City
Newcastle beat Man City at St. James’ Park in November. | Ed Sykes/Sportsphoto/Allstar/Getty Images
- Date: Tuesday, Jan. 13
- Time: 8 p.m. GMT / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT
An Alexander Isak goal saw Newcastle down Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City in the third round of this competition two seasons ago, and the Magpies have generally troubled the perennial Premier League champions on Tyneside.
In November, Harvey Barnes’s heroics thrust Eddie Howe’s men to a 2–1 victory over the Cityzens, and they head into the start of their semi-final in excellent form.
Three wins on the bounce in the Premier League were backed up by a penalty shootout triumph over Bournemouth in the FA Cup third round at the weekend, but their woes at the Etihad mean they require a head start if they’re to maximise their chances of returning to Wembley.
City once dominated the Carabao Cup, winning five of the six iterations from 2016–21, but they haven’t been involved in the showpiece event since their most recent triumph five years ago.
With Arsenal boasting a healthy enough advantage at the Premier League’s summit and Guardiola’s side having a serious job on their hands to conquer the continent, this competition represents their best chance of claiming silverware this term.
Prediction: Newcastle 2–2 Man City
Chelsea vs. Arsenal
Liam Rosenior oversaw a comfortable victory on his managerial bow with Chelsea. | Rob Newell/CameraSport/Getty Images
- Date: Wednesday, Jan. 14
- Time: 8 p.m. GMT / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT
When Chelsea battled admirably while a man down against the Premier League leaders at the end of November, very few would’ve expected a different face in the home dugout at Stamford Bridge for their next meeting with the Gunners.
Enzo Maresca’s stunning departure leaves BlueCo’s golden boy, Liam Rosenior, at the helm, and the former Strasbourg manager has the chance to quickly garner the faith of an unsure fanbase when the Blues face Arsenal over two legs.
Rosenior’s reign started with a 5–1 win at Charlton Athletic on Saturday night, but Mikel Arteta’s Gunners represent a seismic step up in quality. Arsenal have succumbed at this stage of the competition on multiple occasions with the Spaniard at the helm, and many supporters are desperate for the club to end their six-year wait for a trophy before this season’s run-in gets underway.
Thomas Tuchel was in charge, and Romelu Lukaku was overwhelming Pablo Marí in Arsenal’s backline the last time Chelsea toppled the Gunners.
Prediction: Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal
Carabao Cup Semifinal First Leg Predictions
Date
Kick-Off Time
Fixture
Prediction
Tuesday, Jan. 13
8 p.m. GMT / 3 p.m. ET
Newcastle vs. Man City
2–1
Wednesday, Jan. 14
8 p.m. GMT / 3 p.m. ET
Chelsea vs. Arsenal
1–1
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