It’s a relentless schedule in the NHL this season, with the extended break for the Olympics in February. Another four games in six nights for the Montreal Canadiens started Monday with the Vancouver Canucks’ visit.
The Canucks are dead last in the league, but that doesn’t mean they are horrific, or have given up on their season. They are only eight points from a playoff spot. Every team deserves respect, and the Canadiens gave it to them. Montreal had to work hard to post a 6-3 win.
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Head coach Martin St. Louis teaches “total hockey.” Like “total soccer,” invented by the Netherlands late last century, the term implies that every player can go to every part of the ice freely. Defenders go on the attack every single opportunity, and when they do, attackers must cover for them and defend.
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It’s not an accident that the Canadiens had four goals from their defence. The first was a point shot on the power play by Noah Dobson that was screened well by big Juraj Slafkovsky. That’s a goal by a blue liner in the classic sense.
The next two by a defenceman were in the “total hockey” sense. Nick Suzuki set up the trailer on an attack by Alexandre Carrier. He skated in freely to score from 20 feet.
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A short time later, still in the second period, it was Slafkovsky leading a rush after a beautiful outlet pass by Ivan Demidov. It would be predictable if it were Oliver Kapanen streaking toward the net, on the other side of the ice, but it was Carrier feeling the moment.
Carrier scored his second goal in 20 seconds. It took Carrier 45 games to get one goal. It took him the same shift to get two more.
The theme of the night added a chapter in the third period as a fourth goal was scored by a defender. Gorgeous passing by Alexandre Texier and Cole Caufield led to an open lane for Mike Matheson to fire it home.
Demidov had an outstanding game. He had three glorious chances to score. Each one felt like it couldn’t possibly have been saved. Demidov had a 93 expected goals share after two periods. The second line and first line created chance after chance, but Vancouver goalie Nikita Tolopilo was sharp, and kept the Canucks in a game where they were being dominated.
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They finally broke through in the third when Demidov set up Slafkovsky from 10 feet. His shot to the top corner was perfect for his 17th of the season. The same line added to the lead with a gorgeous passing play. Slafkovsky freed Demidov, who spotted Kapanen on the other side. He ripped a one-timer home for his 16th of the season.
When the Canadiens made it 6-3 to take the edge out of the game, finally, the shots on goal were 36-17. It was domination over the Canucks. It just didn’t look like it for 40 minutes because of goaltending. Perhaps they wait, but perhaps it’s now that they finally make the move.
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There could be changes to the roster as soon as Tuesday morning. Josh Anderson is expected back from injury. He would naturally slot in beside Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher. It’s possible that will lead to a demotion to the minors.
The likely player to be demoted is Owen Beck, as he doesn’t have to clear the waiver wire, but Zachary Bolduc also doesn’t have to clear waivers, so the coaching staff may not want to break up a line competing extremely well right now. Joe Veleno, Samuel Blais and Beck are a difficult fourth line to face.
The other issue is the three-goaltender system. It can’t last for an extended period and it’s already well extended. This was Jakub Dobes’s first start since New Year’s Day. It can’t be easy to excel with 12 days between games. He wasn’t stellar on the first Canucks goal.
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The point shot wasn’t difficult to handle, yet Dobes let out a poor rebound. He then slid across without his stick on the ice, allowing for a big gap between his pads. With a short rebound, the low section of the goal has to be covered, because the shooter can’t lift it to the top corner from that tight distance.
Goaltending is math. It’s the reason that the reverse VH technique is the system in use today. It’s only the gifted shooter who can find just under the bar, so give the shooter the difficult shot while taking away all the easy shots low. There are a ton of shots low from two feet. Today’s RVH goaltending is designed for none of them to go in.
On the second goal against for Dobes, the issues started with a brutal giveaway by Arber Xhekaj. He had been playing well for two weeks without any brain freezes, but then he suffered two in the second period to cost the club. Xhekaj had the puck, skating freely with it, yet tried a clearing attempt that went right to Vancouver.
Dobes didn’t bail out his teammate on the play, though. Dobes ended up on his back trying to stop the rebound. Technically, there is absolutely no moment that good goaltending is achieved on your back. On the third goal against, Dobes had no chance after Xhekaj collided with Kaiden Guhle to allow a cross-crease pass.
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It wouldn’t surprise at all if Dobes doesn’t go on the road trip for the week. The decision to go back to two goalies has to be coming, and it is becoming apparent that Dobes is the odd man out at the moment.
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The Canadiens’ pipeline is exciting. As well-rounded as the club is already, it still has top-quality prospects coming to the club who will fight for spots at the top of the lineup: Michael Hage, Alexander Zharovsky, David Reinbacher and Bryce Pickford. They all have a chance to be stars.
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On defence, it’s difficult to know how a player will be able to transfer his skill set to the NHL. It’s all about the speed at which he can make decisions. As good as any stats are offensively for a defender, the separation between star, roster player and minor leaguer is always about how fast they can process.
On offence, it’s a lot easier to evaluate from one level to another because it’s about points, which translates well to the next level. That means the best way to ask if Hage can translate his point total to the NHL is to see how he compares at the college level. It’s not a foolproof method, because dynamics are always different, but it is surprisingly effective.
In his sophomore season at Michigan, Hage has 30 points in 22 games. This is a points-per-game total of 1.36, which compares well to recent history.
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This season, Hage is essentially behind only Max Plante in points per game. Last season, Hage’s 1.36 points per game would have also been second. Two years ago, it was a wild year with a lot of scoring talent as Will Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Macklin Celebrini and three others were ahead of Hage’s PPG total. The year before that, Adam Fantilli and Logan Cooley were clearly ahead. The year before that, Hage would have been the best PPG scorer.
That’s a five-year sample of college hockey, and Hage’s point total is top 10 overall. The point totals of Hage at Michigan say NHL star in the making. By the way, six years ago, the best points per game in college hockey was some kid out of Wisconsin named Cole Caufield at 1.67.
Let’s also look at the ranking of his successful world junior championship to see where he stands recently. Connor Bedard is the standard-bearer with 23 points for Canada in his U-19 season. Trevor Zegras had 18 points recently. Dylan Cozens had 16 points.
In the last three years, Hage has the top points total in a single year at the tournament with 15 points. Hage is an obvious standout this decade at the world juniors.
No one can say for sure that Hage will follow the same points path as the collegians and world juniors before him who found stardom at the NHL level, but the numbers are most definitely in his favour.
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It says here that Hage will eventually be a points-per-game player in the NHL. Expect his profile in the NHL to be much like Robert Thomas. Thomas is also a good marker that a player can average a point per game in the NHL taken at 20th or 21st overall, as Thomas and Hage were.
It’s going to be thrilling to watch. Hage has the size. He has the skating ability. He has the vision. He has the stick skills. He’s also solid defensively, getting a good education in hockey at Michigan.
He’s all but certainly going to sign at the end of his college season, and if that season ends early enough, he will likely get a look in Montreal this year.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after each Canadiens game.
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