How much does playoff experience matter in the NFL? Does a team with experience playing in the postseason have a clear advantage over, say, a team without?
What about the ‘rest vs. rust’ question relative to a first-round playoff bye? And how much of an advantage is playing on the home-field in January?
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton answered those questions on Tuesday, as he and his team prepare to host the Buffalo Bills in a playoff rematch. Last year, the upstart Broncos were the last AFC team to qualify for the playoffs, clinching the No. 7 seed in Week 18, which broke the club’s eight-year postseason drought.
That 2024 Broncos squad had to travel to Upstate New York to face a Bills team that had either advanced to the Divisional Round or the AFC Championship Game in each of the preceding four seasons. From the outside looking in, it seemed that Buffalo’s experience playing in the heightened state of the NFL playoffs served them well against a Broncos team that was extremely young and just happy to be there.
“Myth No. 3: Postseason experience is important,” Payton said on Tuesday.
The Bills drubbed the Broncos 31-7 in last year’s Wildcard Round, a loss that Payton described at the time as “brutal.” It was obviously disappointing, but at least the 2025 Broncos have a taste of what it’s like to square up in the playoffs.
Payton doesn’t see it as much of an advantage, though. The other two myths? No. 1: home-field advantage guarantees a win, and No. 2: the rest earned from a first-round bye ensures a fast start in the Divisional Round.
“Obviously, they played in it, but historically, when you go back and look at teams and records, and you look at rosters,” Payton said. “Now, there’s about eight of these myths, but you hit one of them. Obviously, being in that environment, it’s really the week. It ratchets up. It’s different, it’s different.”
If there are eight such myths, Coach, care to share what the other five might be?
“No, you have to hit them. I’m not going to,” Payton said with a smile. “You’re the ones asking the questions. (Laughs) It’s your time.”
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The Experience Myth
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs for a gain of about three yards during the first half of the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Maybe playoff experience isn’t the end-all, be-all for NFL teams, but it sure doesn’t hurt. What the Broncos went through in last year’s Wildcard Round should serve them in this year’s Divisional Round rematch with the Bills.
What changes in the playoffs in comparison to the regular season? Well, because it’s sudden death, single-elimination, the desperation factor creates a significant increase in intensity and physicality.
The more experienced playoff teams seem to harness that intensity more aptly, which was something the 2024 Broncos struggled to do. Denver started out on good footing in that game, with Bo Nix leading a scoring drive on the team’s opening possession, culminating in a 43-yard touchdown strike to Troy Franklin.
It was all downhill from there.
The Bills imposed their will on the Broncos, running the ball down their throats to the tune of 210 rushing yards, led by James Cook’s 120 yards and Josh Allen’s 46.
The Bills telegraphed what they were going to do on offense, daring the Broncos to stop them. They couldn’t.
It was a humbling lesson, and it certainly informed how Payton and the Broncos approached the 2025 offseason. As the AFC’s No. 1 seed this season, the Broncos have been on a first-round playoff bye, and while they only found out on Sunday that they’d be hosting the Bills on Saturday, you could say they’ve been preparing for this game for a year.
The Broncos went out and signed safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw as a direct consequence of how the defense was exposed by the Bills in the playoffs. Both are expected to be healthy for Saturday’s game, though Greenlaw missed the final two regular-season games with a hamstring injury.
Greenlaw was limited in Tuesday’s practice, but Payton has already said that he’ll be good to go by Saturday. The Broncos were also without Alex Singleton in last year’s Wildcard loss, but he’s healthy and champing at the bit after missing that bite at the playoff apple.
Time will tell whether the Broncos will be able to better withstand the Bills’ punishing rushing attack, helmed by Cook, who finished as the NFL’s rushing champ this year, with 1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns. And banged-up though he is, Allen is still the reigning NFL MVP, and he presents a whole different problem as a dual-threat quarterback.
Payton played down the experience factor, and maybe there’s some truth to it. He, of all people, would know, but experience can’t hurt, and the Broncos not only have last season’s playoff game on their collective resume, but also all the hard-fought one-score games that they had an uncanny knack for prevailing in this year.
The Broncos were 11-2 in one-score games this season. That, combined with the bitter taste the Wildcard Round left in their mouths, should have the Broncos much more prepared to take on the Bills again, this time at Empower Field at Mile High.
The Rest Myth
Jan 12, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) moves to avoid pressure from Buffalo Bills defensive end AJ Epenesa (57) in the fourth quarter of an AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
“Look, the rest is important, but myth No. 2 is that ensures the fast start. It doesn’t,” Payton said. “Understand this: We’re playing a team that’s coming off one of their biggest wins in the last 10 years. We have to earn a fast start and take advantage of the energy, take advantage of the rest. But it has to be done out here. Today was a good start.”
Starting fast hasn’t been a strength of this team all season, yet the Broncos won 14 games, tying the single-season franchise record set by the 1998 World Champion squad. This team might not need a fast start to win ball games, but it certainly couldn’t hurt.
The Home-field Myth
“We talk about earning seeds and trying to get all edges. It was the same way I felt in that first year in 2006 in New Orleans when we lost in Chicago in the championship game. ‘How do we get this game [at home]?’” Payton said. “Now, there are some myths relative to the playoffs. Home field is important relative to the crowd noise, but just look at the weekend we just had. I don’t know what the numbers were. I know our crowd will be fantastic. We have to be ready to play our best game.”
Payton’s point about Wildcard Weekend is that the home teams went 2-4. Only two home teams — the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots — prevailed this past weekend, which is a cautionary tale for the Broncos.
I trust that Payton will make sure that lesson isn’t lost on the Broncos entering Saturday’s home tilt with the Bills. His message to Broncos Country on Tuesday was to bring the noise, especially when the Bills are trying to huddle.
The Takeaway
Perhaps if the right questions get asked, Payton will reveal the other five myths about the playoffs someday. Until then, Broncos Country can only hope this team isn’t resting on its laurels as a result of winning the No. 1 seed, the week of rest, and the fact that they have a little playoff experience under their belt now.
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