We are still waiting for the Orioles to make that one final big move that has been rumored. On that front, there has been no movement—publicly, anyway—in some time. It seems like the team remains in the mix on free agents Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez. Next to nothing has been said about the O’s and Zac Gallen, but he is still a potential fit. And then there are the top trade targets, Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta, who may stay put entering the season unless the Tigers and Brewers bring their asking prices down.
There is no deadline on this. If a player and team cannot align on a contract, they may stay unsigned into spring training and beyond. But that is not usually a recipe for success though.
Back in 2024, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery both took until the second half of March to find a new landing spot. Snell struggled out of the gate, accumulating a 9.51 ERA through June and needing two IL stints, although he was great from July onward. Montgomery began the season strong, but faded quickly and ended with a 6.23 ERA over just 117 innings. He has not pitched in the majors since then.
The fact that two other “high end” pitchers in recent memory struggled after signing so late in the offseason does not necessarily mean that Valdez, Suárez, and Gallen will suffer the same fate. But it’s not like the Orioles are alone in whatever trepidation they may have in handing one of them a big deal. The rest of the league seems to agree.
It’s unclear what the sticking point in negotiations with the free agents may be, but it all likelihood it comes down to years. The players want more years and guaranteed money. The teams want fewer years and less commitment, even if that may mean an elevated AAV. Given that it has taken until now for these pitchers to find a home, it feels like the teams are going to get what they want, or at least a smaller deal than was expected for these pitchers back in November.
This could be the exact type of scenario that Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias has dreamed of. Last offseason he had offered Corbin Burnes a four-year deal with a $45 million AAV. The big righty ended up getting six years and a $35 million AAV from the Diamondbacks. Even that big of an offer was likely a special case given how good and dependable Burnes had been up to that point.
Elias has been clear that he does not want to spend big on any one pitcher. They are just too risky in his opinion, and he feels it constrains the rest of the roster too much. He’s not wrong. Burnes has already had to undergo Tommy John surgery since then, essentially proving Elias’ point. But giving out silly contracts can sometimes be a requirement if you want to land top talents.
The pitching market has been a bit weird this offseason. Dylan Cease got a massive seven-year, $210 million from the Blue Jays early in the winter, but then it got quiet. Eventually, Tatsuya Imai had to “settle” for a three-year deal worth $54 million, a pittance compared to what he was projected to get, and Michael King was only given three years as well. Would we really expect any of the remaining arms to get the six or seven years they were hoping for in that context?
That could be why many teams that need pitching have opted for trades instead. The Orioles sought out Shane Baz. The Cubs landed Edward Cabrera. And just yesterday the Yankees acquired Ryan Weathers. That seems to be where the league sees the value right now.
More questions for Birdland Caravan | Roch Kubatko
Roch is ready to see some Orioles players. He’s got questions lined up for just about all of them!
Peter Schmuck: My Hall of Fame ballot exposed | Baltimore Baseball
Some people have big opinions on who should and should not be in the Baseball Hall of Fame. I am not one of those people. But if you are, here is another perspective in that genre.
Under Armour signs a new deal with its biggest star | The Baltimore Banner
This is not Orioles-related, but it is baseball and it is Baltimore-adjacent. Bryce Harper caused a bit of a stir on social media last week when he referred to himself as a “free agent in the apparel/footwear category right now.” His contract with Under Armour had lapsed, and it seems he was trying to create some leverage to get a new deal done. It worked!
Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!
- Danny Boone turns 72 today. He pitched in four games for the 1990 Orioles after being out of baseball entirely for five years. While working as a drywall installer the year before, he joined the Senior Professional Baseball Association and developed a knuckleball that was good enough to get noticed by the O’s.
- Wayne Gross turns 74. He spent two seasons in Baltimore from 1984-85, was worth 4.4 bWAR, and had a 120 OPS+.
This day in O’s history
1963 – The Orioles acquire shortstop Luis Aparicio and outfielder Al Smith from the White Sox in exchange for pitcher Hoyt Wilhelm, outfielder Dave Nicholson, third baseman Pete Ward, and shortstop Ron Hansen.
1993 – The Orioles add Harold Baines from the Athletics in exchange for two minors leaguers, pitcher Allen Plaster and pitcher Bobby Chouinard.
1994 – The Orioles sign bespectacled third baseman Chris Sabo.
