Well, the worst case scenario, at least for this offseason, happened for the New York Jets.
In a surprising twist, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore opted to return to school rather than enter the NFL Draft and, in all likelihood, go to the Jets with the second overall pick. Moore essentially eschews the prospect of a $50 million contract to earn much less than that in NIL money in college, though he’ll also have a chance to develop more as a prospect and help himself ahead of the 2027 draft.
For the Jets, the way to interpret Moore’s decision is simple: It’s not good, even if it’s not necessarily the end of the world because of what awaits them in 2027.
First, the bad:
1) There is no longer a quarterback outside of Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza who is viewed as a high-enough-level enough prospect to draft second overall. (Mendoza is a mortal lock to go No. 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders at this point.) The only other quarterback with a first-round grade, according to most evaluators, is Alabama’s Ty Simpson, who has even less college experience than Moore and played poorly down the stretch.
2) Even if the Jets didn’t ultimately want to draft Moore, his decision to return to school reduces the value of that No. 2 pick. If the Jets didn’t want to draft Moore and instead had their eye on a non-quarterbacks, Moore’s presence might have created enough value to get some draft capital out of a QB-needy team behind them in the order, like the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 or the Cleveland Browns at No. 6. Now, there’s much less incentive for another team to trade up in a draft class that is considered to be light on elite-level prospects.
3) The removal of Moore as an option makes the Jets’ quarterback situation in 2026 look especially bleak. Maybe the Jets are smitten with Simpson, but quarterbacks with his level of experience (15 college starts) historically don’t succeed often in the NFL. In the last 10 years, the list of first-round quarterbacks to start fewer than 20 games includes Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins and Mitchell Trubisky. Of that group, only Richardson, Murray, Haskins and Trubisky started 15 or fewer games — and only Murray (two-time Pro Bowler) can be considered a real success out of that group.
The glass half-full view of this news: The Jets are loaded with draft capital (three first-round picks) in what should be an impressive group of quarterback prospects in 2027. Texas’s Arch Manning is at the top of the list. This allows the Jets to address other holes on the roster (there are many) before, in theory, adding the quarterback they want next year.
Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese or Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. should be viewed as the early favorites for the No. 2 pick. Ultimately, the 2026 season is about whether the Jets can show themselves to be a competent operation and a competitive team even if playoffs aren’t quite within reach.
Therein lies another problem: That long game assumes this regime — head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey — can survive another season like 2025, which ended with a 3-14 record. And right now, their quarterback options this offseason don’t look a whole lot more enticing than the ones from last year, when they signed Justin Fields. So if the Jets don’t show improvement in 2026, coach and/or GM might be passing off an appealing situation (three firsts) to their replacement.
As for some of the Jets’ potential options in 2026:
Simpson’s stock rose with an impressive 10 games to start the 2025 season: 2,787 yards, 22 touchdowns, two interceptions, 66.9 completion percentage and two rushing touchdowns. But he tailed off at the end — especially when it mattered. In his last five games, Simpson threw for 780 yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions and a 58.5 completion percentage. In the conference championship game against Georgia, he was 19 of 39 for 212 yards, one touchdown and one interception. In the CFP against Indiana: 12 of 16 for 67 yards and no touchdowns.
Perhaps the Jets like him as an option with their second first-round pick (via the Colts) at No. 16 or after a trade-up, but he’s clearly not a prospect that should be a starter on Day 1, or maybe not even in Year 1.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss helped himself with an impressive performance in the playoffs, and he brings a fun, unique blend of athleticism and arm strength. But Chambliss is still appealing with the NCAA to return for a sixth season, is only listed at 6-foot-1 and would be 24 at the start of his rookie year. Up until a few weeks ago, he was viewed more as a Day 3 prospect, though he could help himself in the pre-draft process.
It’s entirely possible if the Jets get Simpson or Chambliss that one of them works out, but history is not in their favor. Other prospects in this draft — Miami’s Carson Beck, Penn State’s Drew Allar, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier — don’t appear to move the needle as prospects who should be viewed as future starters.
So where does that leave the Jets?
Right now the quarterbacks on their roster are Fields, Brady Cook, Hendon Hooker and Bailey Zappe. Fields will almost certainly be cut, and Cook and Hooker likely aren’t NFL quarterbacks. Zappe is on a futures deal and not a real consideration.
So even if the Jets plan to target Simpson or Chambliss, they’ll need to invest in the position well ahead of the draft — and the options aren’t especially enticing.
As of now, the top quarterbacks set to hit free agency include Daniel Jones, Malik Willis, Marcus Mariota, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Mitchell Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Kenny Pickett, Tyler Huntley and Jake Browning.
Some quarterbacks who could break free as cap casualties include Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith. Two quarterbacks who almost certainly will be traded or cut include Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa.
Others who could be available in trades without a guaranteed path to starting on their current roster: Mac Jones, Jacoby Brissett, Jameis Winston, Tanner McKee, Davis Mills, Spencer Rattler and Anthony Richardson.
So who makes the most sense for the Jets?
The Colts are likely to re-sign or franchise-tag Jones. Wilson won’t be a Jet. Wentz, Pickett, Huntley and Browning aren’t serious options as starting quarterbacks, and it feels unlikely Flacco would come back at this point either.
Willis might be the most intriguing member of that group after his late-season performance filling in for Jordan Love: 27-of-32 for 409 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and two rushing touchdowns in two games. He’s young (26) and athletic, though highly unproven as a starting quarterback.
Mariota is better served as a stopgap solution rather than a full-time, 17-game starter at this stage of his career.
Cousins feels like the likeliest target of the bunch, though the 37-year-old is not the player he once was — even if he played well during the Falcons’ season-ending five-game winning streak. Jones is an intriguing option after an impressive run in San Francisco this season, but a trade likely won’t come cheap and the Jets aren’t coached by Kyle Shanahan (Jones struggled as the starter with the Patriots).
Smith had a poor season in Las Vegas and it’s unclear if he’d want to return to the team that drafted him. Brissett was highly productive for the Cardinals last year but holds a 20-45 career record as a starter. Winston is entertaining but has thrown 25 interceptions in 36 games over the last six years. Rattler and Richardson were both benched by the teams that drafted them. McKee has never been a starter. Mills’ two years as a starter featured 25 picks in 28 games.
Tagovailoa has looked like a shell of himself the last two years and his contract is untenable.
Murray is the most talented of the group but it got bad enough in Arizona that they’ll be willing to eat a significant chunk of dead cap this offseason just to get rid of him — and he doesn’t feel like a personality fit for what Glenn is looking for in a quarterback. If the Jets add him, it will be out of desperation.
But there aren’t a lot of better options for 2026. That’s the position they’re in now that Moore is out.
