The Yankees finally made their first notable external addition on Tuesday night following weeks of dormancy, acquiring left-handed starting pitcher Ryan Weathers from the Marlins for a package of four prospects. My colleague Michael provided the immediate breakdown of the trade, Weathers’ performance in his five big league seasons, and the prospects heading in the other direction. Today, I’d like to dive into what kind of player the Yankees are adding to their rotation and the potential upside that Matt Blake and the rest of his pitching staff could unlock in the 26-year-old starter.
Drafted seventh overall by the Padres out of Loretto High School (TN) in the 2018 MLB Draft and the son of a former Yankees World Series champion, Weathers has flashed glimpses of a mid-rotation starter ceiling during his six years in the majors since debuting on the national stage in the 2020 postseason. However, they’ve only been glimpses as Weathers has never breached the 100-inning threshold in any of those campaigns. The Marlins acquired him from San Diego at the 2023 Trade Deadline to be a full-time member of their starting rotation, but he made just 24 starts across his two seasons in Miami after missing significant time to finger, forearm, and lat strains.
Despite that limited availability, Weathers’ development gained a huge boost in Miami. As many others have noted, his fastball went from so-so with the Padres to being a legitimate weapon with the Marlins. In 2023, his four-seamer averaged 95 mph and dropped about 15 inches on its path to home. In 2025, it averaged 97 mph and dropped just 13 inches on its path to home. Results against the fastball have remained pretty consistent during that period. However, the extra two mph in fastball velocity and two inches of riding life have had a transformative effect on the rest of his arsenal.
Weathers’ two main secondary offerings are a changeup and a sweeper. With each mph of velocity gain on the fastball, hitters have that much less time to react when deciding to swing and that much less time to distinguish breaking and off-speed from the heat. As he has improved the fastball, both pitches have improved from subpar to elite. In 2023, his changeup induced a 27.9-percent whiff rate, 28.6-percent chase rate, and .354 expected wOBA against. That improved to a 40.6-percent whiff rate, 31.5-percent chase rate, and .287 xwOBA. The sweeper experienced similar improvement in the same time frame, going from a 26.1-percent whiff rate, 25.4-percent chase rate, and .319 xwOBA to a 39.1-percent whiff rate, 32.9-precent chase rate, and .256 xwOBA.
With this refinement of his arsenal, the result is a jump from a fringe big leaguer with major league rotation upside to a bona fide MLB starter. Between 2021 and 2023, Weathers pitched to a 5.88 ERA (69 ERA+), 5.64 FIP, 8.1-percent K-BB%, .371 wOBA against, .310 BABIP and -0.3 fWAR in 156 innings. These improved to a 3.74 ERA (116 ERA+), 4.26 FIP, 15.2-percent K-BB%, .308 wOBA against, .276 BABIP and 1.3 fWAR in 125 innings over the last two seasons.
When you look at the adjustments made by the incumbent pair of southpaws in the Yankees rotation — Max Fried and Carlos Rodón — the situation appears ripe for Weathers to experience similar improvements to his game. In 2025, there was a concerted effort to improve the shape and usage rate of the changeup for both Fried and Rodón. Weathers already added over a half-foot of extra downward movement to the changeup upon moving from San Diego to Miami, so it’s clear he has a feel for what makes his pitches behave the way they do. Similarly, Blake focused on having Fried and Rodón up their sinker usage in 2025 while teasing out a little extra downward break. Weathers similarly upped his sinker usage in Miami, and could benefit from additional downward break to create added separation off the four-seamer.
One of the recent trends for starting pitchers has been a focus on throwing a wider diversity of pitches, something which in theory should allow them to go deeper into games. Weathers’ increase in sinker usage and re-integration of a gyro slider he had previously scrapped align with this emerging movement. He added a touch more cutting movement to the four-seamer to further distinguish it from the sinker, and given Fried’s improvements to the shape of his cutter in 2025, perhaps Weathers could use his new teammate as an example for his own continued development. The Yankees were at the forefront of the sweeper revolution and you could dream of Weathers’ version of the pitch transforming into the frisbee-like breakers thrown by Michael King and Will Warren. Returning to that gyro slider, there’s an opportunity for Weathers to learn off Rodón, the latter throwing one of the best left-handed gyro sliders in the game.
When it comes to role, Weathers immediately plugs into the rotation. He represents a significant upgrade over the incumbent options for that fifth starter spot, Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn now moving into bullpen roles (barring injury of course). At this admittedly early juncture, he likely would not remain in the rotation if the Yankees make the playoffs, but that was not the intention that fueled his acquisition — his presence is the perfect bridge in the rotation allowing the Yankee to be that extra bit more cautious bringing Gerrit Cole and Rodón back into the fold as they rehab from their respective elbow surgeries. What’s more, Brian Cashman indicated that Weathers’ addition does not preclude them from further upgrading the rotation. They remain engaged on Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore, and Weathers’ presence allows them to potentially include a Luis Gil or Will Warren in a future trade for pitching.
Regarding the prospects the Yankees surrendered, Dillon Lewis stands out as the headliner (though the speedy Brendan Jones has his fans as well). Indeed, the Marlins had rumored interest in Lewis when engaging the Yankees in Edward Cabrera trade talks before sending the starter to the Cubs. Lewis is one of the fastest risers in all of the minor leagues and is considered by several outlets to be a breakout candidate for 2026. He owned the highest 90th-percentile exit velocity and was considered the best defensive outfield prospect in their system, and was expected to rise higher than his organizational ranking at the time of the trade (No. 7 by Baseball Prospectus, No. 8 by Baseball America, and No. 16 by MLB Pipeline).
However, this is exactly the type of trade the Yankees need to be leveraging. They helped transform a previously unknown 13th-round draft pick into and exciting prospect and cashed that growth in to lead the package for three years of an MLB starting pitcher. The Yankees’ number-one focus should be maximizing Aaron Judge’s prime years. Lewis was not expected to reach the majors this year or next whereas Weathers immediately boosts their floor this season and gives them a controllable starter for the next two. They are not going to cry over a prospect who could make the majors in three years’ time when he can be flipped for three years of proven MLB talent. It is also worth mentioning that the front office managed to keep their highest grade powder dry should they look to make further upgrades via the trade market. On the surface, it looks like one of those rare win-win trades for both franchises, the Yankees reinforcing their most dire area of need while a rebuilding Marlins team gets intriguing pieces for the future.
