The first week of the season was men’s tennis cast in miniature. In fact, it illuminated wealth inequality more broadly. The billionaire class—Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner—flew to a lavish exhibition. They batted around balls, smiling throughout. They collected seven-figure checks. And then they shared a private plane to Melbourne.
Why deign to play regular tournaments against regular opponents—and fly commercial—when you don’t have to? When you can hang out in private enclaves? Let the rank and file interrupt holidays to scavenge for, you know, ranking points, prize money and form.
Then again, in this case, the gilded class has earned this right. Sinner. Alcaraz. Alcaraz. Sinner. One or the other has won each of the past eight majors. And the gap between No. 3 and No. 2 is wider than the gap between No. 3 and you and me.
Is this the event where the proletariat rises up? We shall see. But first, our men’s seed report …
The top 16
1. Carlos Alcaraz
With a new coaching setup, Alcaraz heads to the lone major he’s never won amid swirls of uncertainty. The fact that he was the winner of the previous hard-court major? That ought to be a source of comfort and inspiration. And he ought to be rested, having played no warmup. But will it be strange for him to be at a crucial juncture of a match, look to the stands and … not see the figure he has long called his surrogate father?
2. Jannik Sinner
Not only is he the double defending champion, but his strong finish in Turin augurs well. The hot and humid conditions—not the player on the other side of the net—might be his biggest concern. And, while a year ago he told us 2025 was coach Darren Cahill’s last season, Cahill reassures us he’ll be back in the box this year.
3. Alexander Zverev
On the plus side: Zverev reached the finals in Melbourne in 2025. On the other hand, he not only lost that match but also lost his way in the months that followed. He has so much game, and a dangerous backhand in particular. But there’s a hard-to-shake feeling that the window is closing fast on that elusive major. To his credit, he doesn’t use it as an excuse—but an added complication is his diabetes, in the face of oppressive heat and humidity.
4. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic has had a touch of success Down Under throughout his career (10 titles, to be precise). He’s also reached the semifinals at four consecutive majors, including this one. The overarching question: At 38, can he compete with Alcaraz and Sinner in best-of-five matches? He can beat anyone on a given day, but will need some help from the draw because he can’t win both in succession as he rages against the dying of the light, tries to beat back the tide … all those other clichés we are sure to hear.
5. Lorenzo Musetti
Congrats to Musetti on breaching the top five. He has lots of flair and flourish, but you worry about the conditions, as well as his nerves, in a tight match. He won zero titles in 2025 and has a career sub-.500 record Down Under.
6. Alex de Minaur
The great Aussie hope is, alas, as predictable as he is admirable. He’ll get to the second week, then compete gamely, but fall to a player with slightly more gears and/or wattage. He enters the Australian Open with a new fitness coach and, one hopes, physicality.
7. Félix Auger-Aliassime
Like Spirit Halloween, he emerged in the fall. He’ll try to continue riding his hot streak, which includes a U.S. Open semifinal showing, a torrid autumn and an unexpected foray into the top five. The game is there, the physicality is there, and the subject expertise (i.e., hard-court tennis) is there. This will be a good test of whether 2025 is the new normal or a happy outlier.
8. Ben Shelton
Shelton is the highest-ranked American heading into Australia. The salon is getting impatient, but we’re still all-in on Shelton. He’s playing with less empty-the-clip eagerness and more patience and nuance. At the last big outdoor hard-court event he entered healthy (Canada 2025), he won. And he remains one of the sport’s more intense and reliable competitors.
9. Taylor Fritz
Fritz’s 2025 was a minor disappointment and a bit of career stagnation—credit to him for remaining entrenched in the top 10. But Fritz is very much a player in need of a strong major, and a lingering knee injury is a concern.
Pause to note that Jack Draper—after a blazing start to 2025—is still injured.
10. Alexander Bublik
Yes, he’s now a top-10 player. The seeded wild card brings his vanishing-and-reappearing act to Melbourne. Nine months ago, he was ranked No. 80, which tells you all you need to know. He’s great fun to watch, especially when he’s on. He’s also great fun to follow, especially if you don’t mind the carnival ride. But is he a legit contender (i.e., a player capable of dazzling tennis, not on a given day, but on seven consecutive, specific days)?
(Spare a moment for Holger Rune, as he recovers from an Achilles injury.)
11. Daniil Medvedev
The former finalist—who came a few games from winning the title when he got there—won a total of one match at the four majors in 2025. He found some form in the fall, which bodes well. With two kids at home, a new coach, a title in Brisbane and a 30th birthday approaching, you wonder where he is in the tennis life cycle. His talent and track record, especially on hard courts, put him squarely in the contender category, at least the one after Sinner and Alcaraz.
12. Casper Ruud
The faster the court, the less you like his chances. He’s an admirable player and an outstanding tennis citizen, but you wonder if he hasn’t already hit his ceiling.
13. Andrey Rublev
A first-round loser to João Fonseca last year, he’s too good a player not to be in the top 10, but too erratic to be considered a serious contender.
14. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
If Zverev is perhaps the best player never to have won a major, might ADF be the best player never to have won a title of any size? Unlikely to happen here, but he’s dangerous, fun to watch and destined to win something soon.
15. Karen Khachanov
He is a pro’s pro whose factory setting is to play well in Week 1 and lose to a player with more gears and athleticism in Week 2.
16. Jakub Menšík
The Miami winner has hard-court chops. But he’s retreated a bit in the past six months, and you worry about him holding up in extreme conditions.
Jakub Mensik will face Pablo Carreño Busta in the first round. | David Gonzales-Imagn Images
Seeds 17-32
17. Jiří Lehečka
He is an up-and-down player, but the faster the court, the more dangerous Lehečka is.
20. Flavio Cobolli
Another Italian … he continues arrowing up.
19. Tommy Paul
The former semifinalist in Melbourne essentially lost the second half of 2025 to an assortment of injuries. Not unlike so many players, the gap between healthy and unhealthy is vast.
25. Learner Tien
All he does is win. He was a Week 2 player in 2025. Why not again?
27. Brandon Nakashima
American tennis’s silent assassin is coming off the Brisbane final.
28. João Fonseca
Last year’s revelation returns this year as a seed—and he’s still only 19. However, his back injury is a cause for concern.
30. Valentin Vacherot
It will be interesting to see if he can catapult fall success into results at a major.
31. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Jeez, could this former finalist use some good news.
Dark horse corridor
Hubert Hurkacz: The former (longtime) top-10 player is back and booming serves. (Is he ready for best-of-five matches?)
Zizou Bergs: The Belgian shotmaker is squarely in the top 50, and already has a 2026 win over Menšík.
Sebastián Báez: A hard-court win last week over Fritz is a statement.
Marin Čilić: All former major winners (and finalists at this event) merit mention.
Stan Wawrinka: All former champs merit mention (even if they’re almost 41).
First round matches to watch
De Minaur vs. Matteo Berrettini: The Aussie starts against a former top 10 stalwart.
Bergs vs. Hurkacz: A brutal draw for both.
Zverev vs. Gabriel Diallo: Upset alert?
Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert: With Gaël Monfils likely awaiting the winner.
Sinner vs. Hugo Gaston: Sinner will win but Gaston can vex.
Eliot Spizzirri vs. Fonseca: If Fonseca’s back is acting up, this will be a big opportunity for the Connecticut Yankee.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Báez: If you like contrasts …
Tien vs. Marcos Giron: USC vs. UCLA
Upset special
Jenson Brooksby d. Bublik
Semifinals
Medvedev d. Alcaraz
Sinner d. Shelton
Final
Sinner d. Medvedev
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