16 Stats: How McDavid’s 20-game point streak stacks up to Crosby’s 2011 25-game streak – The Athletic
Fifteen years ago, Sidney Crosby put up arguably the greatest stretch in the salary cap era, scoring 25 goals and 50 points over a 25-game point streak. It was some of the greatest hockey I’ve ever witnessed. Connor McDavid, who on Tuesday became the fourth player in the cap era to put up a 20-game point streak, is giving Crosby a run for his money.
Since Dec. 4, McDavid has been a man on a mission. Around that time, there were some people in hockey who were beginning to cast doubts about McDavid’s status as the best player in the world amidst another special Nathan MacKinnon season. McDavid’s work since has left absolutely no doubt: He’s still king.
Over the past 20 games, McDavid has scored 19 goals and 46 points, the highest mark over any 20-game stretch of McDavid’s career, beating his previous best of 44. That’s a Gretzky-like 189-point pace.
McDavid’s game goes beyond just points, though. He also has a 65 percent expected goals rate, has personally fired 17.6 expected goals at net off 102 shots, has a plus-11 penalty differential, is up 22-14 on the scoresheet and has been responsible for a power play scoring 17.6 goals per 60. Everything he’s done has been deserved and arguably, he’s somehow been unlucky at five-on-five with 4.05 goals per 60 compared to 4.99 expected goals per 60. McDavid has been obscene.
How does that compare to Crosby? Well, Crosby was stronger at getting results at five-on-five (up 30-11), but his xG was worse (55 percent), he didn’t create as many chances (11 expected goals), his penalty differential was lower (plus-four), and his work on the power play was worse (8.9 goals per 60). Advantage: McDavid.
Of course, there’s a big difference in scoring era here that should be accounted for, where it may be more apt to see how far McDavid and Crosby were away from their peers.
During this 20-game run, McDavid has a Net Rating per 82 of plus-52 (not a typo), while the next best player, Nikita Kucherov, who has been pretty hot himself, is at plus-41. The average of the other top 10 forwards is plus-29. In other words, McDavid has been 27 percent better than No. 2 and 79 percent better than the rest of the top 10. In comparison, Crosby was 32 percent better than his No. 2, but only 50 percent better than the rest of the top 10.
Crosby didn’t have any direct challengers like McDavid does with Kucherov and MacKinnon, which gave him a clearer gap over second, but compared to the entire field, McDavid’s edge is wider.
Crosby’s 25-game point streak has long felt like the gold standard of consistent excellence in the salary cap era, but McDavid’s latest feat has arguably snatched that away. The only difference that remains is the length of the streak; if McDavid can match that with five more games, he’ll leave little doubt.
There have been a lot of special stretches in McDavid’s career. This latest run might be him at his highest level. We are witnessing historic greatness — an all-too-familiar statement when it comes to McDavid.
16 Stats
1. Edmonton looks ready to go on a run
The Oilers have been up-and-down over their past 10 games (5-3-2), but under the hood, they’ve been doing a lot more right than their record reflects. The team has a 58 percent xG rate, the second-best mark in the league and in line with the Oilers at the peak of their powers. With Tristan Jarry and Jake Walman back in the lineup, the Oilers are finally rounding into form.
2. The return of Copp
Just narrowly missing the top 10 forwards list from above was Andrew Copp, who has been sensational over the same stretch. After starting the year with seven points in 27 games, he has 19 in his last 21 while also putting up a 59 percent xG rate. That’s just shy of the team lead held by linemate Patrick Kane. That duo has been terrific with Alex DeBrincat, giving Detroit some real depth for the first time in a long time.
3. The Lightning are the class of the East
One of the questions I got asked often before the season was, “Why is your model so high on Tampa Bay?” The Lightning started as our favorite to win the Eastern Conference and stumbled out of the gate with a 1-4-2 run, leading to even more questions as their record didn’t reflect their expected power. Since that starting slip, the Lightning are 28-9-1, a 123-point pace buoyed by the team’s current 11-game winning streak. Tampa Bay is a powerhouse, especially as Kucherov has propelled them to great heights over the last two months with 49 points in his last 24 games. That’s one off McDavid.
What makes the Lightning’s record so impressive is that the team has accomplished it without a top pair for a majority of the games. Doing this without Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh makes a healthy Lightning team feel extra imposing. It’s why Tampa Bay is neck-and-neck with Colorado in Stanley Cup chances and head-and-shoulders above the rest of the East: This isn’t even the Lightning’s final form.
4. Pricing Raddysh’s next contract
Last week, Lightning GM Julien BriseBois was shockingly frank with regard to extension talks for pending UFA defenseman Darren Raddysh.
To say finding the right price for Raddysh is tricky would be an understatement. This year, he’s played like a legitimate No. 1 defenseman in the absence of Hedman, taking on tough minutes next to J.J. Moser and quarterbacking the top power play. He’s been on absolute fire over the last month, producing at an elite rate with 21 points in his last 16 games, second to only Lane Hutson among defensemen.
All of it is seemingly out of nowhere, considering Raddysh’s path getting here, which is what makes a new deal so tricky. The undrafted and soon-to-be 30-year-old looks like a genuine star, but there’s a massive difference between who he is now and who he was just last season.
Assuming a whole lot of regression next season and beyond, Raddysh’s current market value on a five-year deal still comes in at $9.2 million. Using last year’s projection, Raddysh’s value drops to $4.6 million. Even the difference — a $7 million AAV — feels a little scary.
5. Toronto’s power play since firing Savard
During the 2023-24 season, the Penguins missed the playoffs by just three points. That margin can easily be chalked up to a lousy power play that scored just 5.6 goals per 60. Despite the personnel and the chances created, the power play just couldn’t execute. Assistant coach Todd Reirden was fired after the season and the Penguins finished the next season 10th in power play goals per 60 — but by then, the damage was done.
That too-little, too-late change was at the top of my mind when the Maple Leafs let go of assistant coach Marc Savard on Dec. 22 after an inexcusably poor start to the team’s power play. Up until that point, the Leafs had scored just 4.2 goals per 60 with the man advantage. Since Savard’s dismissal, the power play has scored 10.5 goals per 60, which ranks eighth.
It’s been night and day, and unlike Pittsburgh’s refusal to act during the 2023-24 season, it might be enough to salvage their season.
6. Can Montreal’s secondary sizzle add more substance?
Montreal’s second line has been red-hot since being put together for good in mid-December. In 17 games, Juraj Slafkovsky has eight goals and 20 points, Ivan Demidov has 15 points and Oliver Kapanen has six goals and 11 points. They’re a perfect combination of size, speed and skill, adding some great offensive support behind Nick Suzuki’s line in scoring 5.4 goals per 60 over the stretch.
The question is, can it last?
The Canadiens have something great on their hands with Slafkovsky and Demidov and the duo seem to work together. I have no doubts Demidov will be a ceiling-raiser when it comes to converting way more chances than expected due to his already-elite puck skills. With that being said, there is some room for this heater to cool down, considering the trio currently has an 18.1 percent on-ice shooting percentage. That’s not usually a figure that lasts.
The one way to make sure it does: control the puck more. Together, the trio has earned just 48 percent of expected goals and generates 2.62 expected goals per 60 on offense. Creating more looks can help soften whatever regression may come.
7. The Atlantic vs. Everyone
That Atlantic Division is a gauntlet and that’s made most clear by their record outside the division. Against the rest of the league, the Atlantic Division is 148-90-23. That’s a 100-point pace. The only Atlantic teams not playing above a 100-point pace against the rest of the league are Buffalo (17-13-2, 92-point pace) and Ottawa (16-14-2, 87-point pace).
8. Hamilton is not the problem in New Jersey
On Sunday, with a fully healthy blue line, Dougie Hamilton somehow found himself as the odd man out with his time as a Devil seemingly numbered. It’s a business, yes, but to view Hamilton as the problem in New Jersey — a team that has allowed Luke Glendening to suit up for 100 percent of games this season — doesn’t add up.
Hamilton may not be scoring like he used to, but a lot of that looks like bad luck with a much lower on-ice shooting percentage and individual-points-percentage than usual. Hamilton has taken on the toughest minutes on the team this year and, against all odds, has been one of their best defensive defenders.
For that reason, it was great to see what Hamilton did in his return to the lineup the following game: two assists, up 3-0 on the scoreboard, and a 64 percent xG. All good for a team-best 4.95 Game Score, the second highest for a Devil this season. It’s clear Hamilton still has game, even if it’s not $9 million worth.
9. New Jersey’s offensive stars need to step up
I don’t know what’s wrong in New Jersey, but I do know I expect a lot more out of Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier on offense. Bratt, fresh off a career-high 88-point season, is on pace for 64 this year, which would be his lowest mark in five years. Hischier’s 62-point pace puts him in the exact same boat.
Whether that’s on those two to be better or coach Sheldon Keefe to get more out of them, either way it’s not good enough.
10. Ehlers is getting back on track
After an extremely slow start with his new team, Nikolaj Ehlers looks like himself again. Since the holiday break, he has 10 points in 11 games, a 62 percent xG rate and an average Game Score of 1.02. Before that, he was at 24 points in 36 games, a 57 percent xG rate and an average Game Score of 0.80.
It’s a small bump, but Ehlers is fitting in more and more as the year goes on and is well above his cold start in October.
11. Is it time for Marino to take on matchups for Utah?
Relative to the rest of their team, few defensemen have been tasked with taking on tougher minutes this season than Mikhail Sergachev, who sits fourth in defensive minute difficulty. Unlike standout defenders like Jake Sanderson or Zach Werenski in a similar role, the evidence isn’t really there that Sergachev is handling the duty well. He’s currently the only Mammoth regular with a below-average xG percentage at 49 percent and is allowing a whole lot of chances and goals against the other way in the process.
Perhaps it’s Sergachev’s sacrifice that’s allowing other pairs to thrive. But considering the defensive strength the team’s second pair of John Marino and Nate Schmidt has shown, perhaps it’s time to lessen Sergachev’s burden. The pair have a 59.6 percent xG together, outscoring opponents 38-17; it sure looks like they can handle it. If it means Sergachev can be freed up to offer more offense, even better.
12. Hughes continues to thrive in a challenging role
In the last edition of 16 Stats, I was fascinated by Minnesota’s matchup decision with Quinn Hughes. In Vancouver, Hughes got secondary matchups tailored to exploit his offense; in his first few games in Minnesota, he was playing tough minutes with Brock Faber. Was that the plan or a result of defensive stalwart Jonas Brodin being out of the lineup?
Over the last month, we have our answer: Hughes is sticking with Faber in a matchup role and the results have been glorious. With Brodin and Faber, the top pair was at 52.2 percent xG with 51.5 percent of actual goals. With Hughes and Faber instead, the top pair is up to 55.3 percent and 57.3 percent, respectively. That’s a massive improvement.
13. California special teams trending in opposite directions
Over the last three weeks, the Sharks have the No. 1 power play in terms of chances with 14.8 xGF/60, and they’re making it count with 11 goals per 60, seventh in the league.
On the other side of the ledger, the Kings have the No. 32 penalty kill in terms of chances allowed with 13.6 xGA/60 over the same stretch. Opposing teams have also made it count with a league-worst 13.2 goals against per 60.
Brandt Clarke has been a revelation on the Kings’ power play. (Luke Hales / Getty Images)
14. Brandt Clarke: power-play quarterback
As bad as Los Angeles’ penalty kill has been lately, the power play has taken a massive step in the right direction with the promotion of Brandt Clarke to the top unit. Clarke started getting over 50 percent of the power play minutes on Dec. 3, and in that time, he’s scored 10.3 points per 60 with the man advantage while being on the ice for 18 goals per 60 and 11.7 expected goals per 60. Those are all excellent marks leading to the Kings’ power play as a whole clicking at 10 goals per 60. That’s up from a 30th-ranked 5.2 goals per 60 before that.
Turns out having your best offensive defenseman run the power play can lead to positive results. What took so long?
15. Confounding Kraken
No team’s results feel more perplexing than Seattle’s right now. Since absolutely crashing in early December, the Kraken are on a 9-1-2 run where they rank fifth in five-on-five goals percentage, second in power play goals per 60, and 10th in penalty kill goals against per 60. Strong across the board, but vastly different from expectations where the Kraken are 31st in five-on-five xG, 23rd in power play xG and 24th in penalty kill xG.
Put it all together and the Kraken have a plus-16 goal differential and a minus-11 expected goal differential over their last 12 games. Keep riding the wave, Seattle, it probably won’t last.
16. Revisiting Rob Zamuner making Team Canada
I have a lot of fun stuff in the works for the NHL’s hotly anticipated return to the Olympics next month, with a look back at past rosters for Team Canada and Team USA being one thing I’m particularly excited about. That’s easy enough for the 2010 and 2014 teams, but anything older required working with pre-analytics-era data. It’s not ideal, but with some inferences, it’s possible to reverse-engineer something decent.
That brings me to Rob Zamuner, arguably the most controversial inclusion to an Olympic team since the NHL started sending its players. It was controversial at the time (our resident hockey historian Sean McIndoe told me that at the time “we had no idea who he was”) and even more controversial when Team Canada failed to medal. Now, let’s add some modern context to that discussion.
Based on his production, plus-minus, ice time in every situation, and team strength, Zamuner’s Net Rating per 82 in 1997-98 was minus-5.4 — 140th among Canadian forwards and 253rd overall, firmly in fourth line territory. The 2025-26 equivalent would be if Team Canada picked Scott Laughton or Adam Henrique.
For all the (sometimes justified) hand-wringing about who did and didn’t make this year’s teams, just know that we’ve come a long way over the last 28 years.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, NHL and Hockey Stat Cards
