TORONTO – An attempt to push an already remarkable off-season to yet another level fell short for the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday evening when Kyle Tucker reportedly reached a four-year, $240-million agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The news came after an anxious wait for the World Series finalists, who made the star outfielder a long-term offer that would have been the second-largest contract in franchise history, trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500-million, 14-year extension. It also would have bested the previous high allocated to a free agent – Dylan Cease’s $210-million, seven-year deal a couple months ago.
With incumbents Bo Bichette and Cody Bellinger still on the market, the question now for the Blue Jays is how hard to push for another bat to further augment a club boosted by the additions of Cease, slugger Kazuma Okamoto ($60 million, four years), reliever Tyler Rogers ($37 million, three years) and Cody Ponce ($30 million, three years).
Their $337 million in commitments has been the driving force in making the American League East baseball’s most aggressive division this winter, doling out $716.625 million for 16 free agents, well ahead of the NL East at $426 million for 15 free agents before Tucker, according to data compiled by Jon Becker of FanGraphs.
As would have been the case with Tucker, widely considered the top free agent on the market, landing someone else will push the Blue Jays further beyond the fourth Competitive Balance Tax spending threshold. That means this year they’ll pay a 60 per cent surcharge on the average annual value of any contract they add.
The CBT threshold for 2026 is set at $244 million, with any overages for the Blue Jays, as a team in the tax for a second straight year, taxed at 30 per cent. Overages between $264-$284 million face an additional 12 per cent surcharge; those between $284-$304 million face a 42.5 per cent surcharge; and those above $304 million face a 60 per cent surcharge.
Clubs that are at $284 million and above also have their first pick in the upcoming draft pushed back 10 spots and the Blue Jays were projecting a CBT payroll of roughly $312 million after the Okamoto signing.
An agreement with Tucker would have signalled the end of the Blue Jays’ relationship with Bichette, the franchise cornerstone since reaching the majors in 2019, who remains in free agency. But this may reopen a pathway for his return, even if it’s believed there’s a big financial gap with Bichette, who met with the Philadelphia Phillies this week.
Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, would have been one of the few players capable of matching Bichette’s lost production, while doing it from the left side of the plate. A career .273/.358/.507 hitter, he would have slotted in well either in the two-hole in front of Guerrero or in the clean-up spot behind the franchise slugger, while also rating as a strong base-runner, despite pedestrian sprint speed, and a solid defender.
Bichette excelled in the clean-up spot for the Blue Jays last year, and he could either slide over to second base, allowing Andres Gimenez to play short and strengthen the club’s defensive alignment, or remain at short with Gimenez returning to second.
Bellinger, a left-handed bat the Blue Jays have flirted with over multiple off-seasons, could also help create the type of continuity Tucker or Bichette would offer, providing Guerrero an elite complement in the lineup while helping to fill in an outfield facing the potential departures of George Springer and Daulton Varsho next off-season.
They’re part of the roughly $93-94 million potentially coming off the books after the season, although given that the Collective Bargaining Agreement also expires Dec. 1, what that means exactly for 2027 and beyond is up in the air. Last year, the Blue Jays paid $13.6 million in taxes on a CBT payroll of $286.1 million.
