If a 10-2 thumping to the Boston Bruins wasn’t bad enough, an 8-4 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night poured even more salt in the wound.
The New York Rangers’ season and playoff hopes are spiraling. Since the holiday break, they have gone 1-6-2 and been outscored 42-22 along the way in all situations. And now, New York sits last in the Eastern Conference, with just a nine percent chance of reaching the playoffs after starting the season with 62 percent odds.
As much as this team deserves some slack, with both Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox sidelined, its issues didn’t develop overnight. There were potential pressure points coming into the season, based on the team’s roster strength alone, that have been completely exposed as time has rolled on. Without Shesterkin and Fox to mask some of those weaknesses, the team is crumbling.
The Rangers weren’t the first team to put up the bat signal for the Concern-o-Meter™ at the midway point of the season, but their recent losing skid has moved them to the top of the list.
New York Rangers
Concern-o-meter: 9/10
Technically, New York is only eight points removed from a wild-card seed and third place in the Metro Division. That isn’t an insurmountable hill to climb with 34 games left to play. But there are just far too many cracks in the foundation to go on a real run this season.
In the early goings of the season, there were at least positive signs below the surface that showed some substance despite a lack of finish. That isn’t the case anymore — the offense has been sparse, the defense has been an outright disaster, and Jonathan Quick understandably can’t stop the bleeding in a starting capacity.
The defense isn’t dynamic enough. Adding Vladislav Gavrikov gave Fox a steady partner, and the two were thriving in matchup minutes earlier this season. But without Fox, there isn’t another real puck-moving option on the back end, and the forward group isn’t strong enough to make up for that. Mika Zibanejad’s bounce-back and Noah Laba’s breakout can only take this team so far when Vincent Trocheck has underwhelmed, and the winger depth has outright lacked outside of Artemi Panarin. The J.T. Miller of it all only strains the situation even more, considering 1) how much the team invested in him last year, 2) the fact that he was named captain, and 3) the remainder of his contract, which carries an $8 million AAV for four more years.
What saves this team from a 10-out-10 reading on the meter is that there can be a path forward: another year of retooling to better position this team for 2026-27 if this front office can pull it off.
The problem is, the team doesn’t have a strong track record of drafting well, and maybe even more importantly, developing players into difference-makers — Kaapo Kakko, Brennan Othmann and Alexis Lafrenière are prime examples of that. Management hasn’t been creative enough to spot hidden gems or reclamation projects, either. So the question is whether this front office can be trusted to fully buy into this process and turn things around in such a short time.
New Jersey Devils
Concern-o-meter: 8/10
The Devils may not have as dramatic a record in their last 10, after going 4-5-1. The team is coming off two straight wins, over two Western Conference teams in the playoff picture, no less. But that doesn’t erase all the chaos in New Jersey over the last month — general manager Tom Fitzgerald wouldn’t be having a roundtable discussion with the media if everything was trending in the right direction, after all.
The Devils, like a lot of teams this season, have had to navigate major injuries. The team’s defense collapsed when Brett Pesce was sidelined, and the offense became even more sparse when Jack Hughes was injured. Getting those two players back, however, didn’t miraculously make the Devils look like a contender again — and that’s showing in their playoff chances. New Jersey peaked at 89 percent in late October and now sits around 24 percent. Issues at every level are contributing to this situation.
The team’s core players aren’t playing up to expectations. Hughes gets more leeway because of his health situation, but Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt aren’t playing up to their two-way ceilings, either. Since management didn’t properly address the gaps in scoring depth, everything becomes that much dicier when the big guns aren’t scoring. On the back end, Luke Hughes hasn’t played consistently enough on either end of the ice — and there’s obviously a microscope there because of his pricey contract and last name.
The no-movement-clause drama has strained things even more, with Dougie Hamilton getting maligned despite playing pretty well this season in matchup minutes. And then there’s Jacob Markstrom’s up-and-down play in net.
As much blame as there is to go around on the ice, Sheldon Keefe’s system isn’t helping matters. And clearly, neither is the team’s construction or contract situation, since it has limited this team’s flexibility.
The Devils aren’t cooked — the playoffs are still within reach if they can build on their last two wins, and having one of the easier schedule strengths ahead works in their favor. But it’s concerning how much dysfunction has plagued New Jersey this season when the expectation was to contend in a middling Metro Division.
Winnipeg Jets
Concern-o-meter: 8/10
The Jets may have extended their win streak to four games on Thursday night, but the big picture is still concerning in Winnipeg.
This team went from winning the Presidents’ Trophy last year with 116 points to sitting 30th in the league. The team stayed afloat through October and most of November despite some concerning trends below the surface. But around Nov. 21, the wheels started to come off, with the team going 7-15-5 over the next 27 games (including a brutal 11-game losing streak). And in that time, the team’s playoff odds went from 80 percent to 33 percent heading into Thursday night.
The Jets never dominated this season, and it was understandable in the early going after key departures (Nikolaj Ehlers) and absences (Cole Perfetti, Adam Lowry, Dylan Samberg and Connor Hellebuyck). A high shooting percentage and steady goaltending helped mask some of those gaps on both ends of the ice initially, but both eventually regressed (especially after Hellebuyck was sidelined).
So while there are positives in Winnipeg, like Josh Morrissey’s all-around game, Perfetti’s recent progression and the team’s play during this streak, generally speaking, the Jets haven’t upheld their trademark defensive structure this season or kicked up the offense enough to make up for it.
It’s a consequence of management taking too passive an approach this past summer. Navigating the Central Division is complicated because all roads lead through the Stars or Avalanche. But teams can either take swings to try and match up, or just waste away precious years of a playoff window — and that’s what the Jets did after such a quiet summer. So while the playoffs haven’t been lost yet, Winnipeg dug a deep hole in the first half of the season. Even if the Jets reach the playoffs against the odds, it’s hard to see them doing damage.
Anaheim Ducks
Concern-o-meter: 7/10
With a 3-1 win over the Stars on Tuesday night, the Ducks finally ended their nine-game losing streak. But along the way, Anaheim’s playoff chances have absolutely cratered — from 81 percent on Dec. 11 (when the losing streak began) to 32 percent on Thursday morning.
The five-on-five process hasn’t been perfect over this stretch, but the Ducks still have a 55 percent xG rate since Dec. 11. Score effects are a consideration here because trailing teams tend to pick up the pace in an attempt to pull even. The other part of the problem is that public metrics obviously have some limitations in what can be captured — and in the Ducks’ case it’s how exposed the goalies have been to rush chances and other defensive-zone mistakes from this young group.
The problem is, unlike earlier this season, the Ducks are having a harder time masking that for two reasons: the team is failing to capitalize on its chances and provide enough goal support, and the goaltenders struggling behind their workload with a combined 16.7 goals allowed above expected over this span at five-on-five. And two individual downturns are contributing that, above the rest: Lukas Dostal, obviously, and Leo Carlsson. Carlsson’s struggles stem back to mid-November; he went from an average Game Score of 1.46 in his first 21 games to 0.33 over his last 23.
The Ducks’ progress came to a crashing halt over the last month of action, which didn’t just take them out of the top-three in a weak Pacific Division, but out of playoff standing entirely. But this is still a young, up-and-coming team, and growing pains should be expected. And now comes the defining part of the season — will the Ducks stay down after hitting a wall, or can this group show resiliency to climb back up the standings?
Los Angeles Kings
Concern-o-meter: 6/10
Sometimes a team doesn’t need to completely overhaul its system and strategy after a playoff loss. That group just has to dust itself off and try again. But when a team loses in a similar fashion year after year, it’s time for drastic change.
Except in Los Angeles, apparently.
The Kings rightfully took a lot of heat for a questionable offseason filled with overpriced contracts for one-dimensional, aging defensemen. What this team really needed, after another postseason loss to the Oilers, was some up-tempo additions who would add more offensive pop to the Kings’ structure.
The good news is that this team, despite some questionable signings, is still defensively solid at five-on-five, and the goaltending is even stronger. The bad news is that structure hasn’t translated on the penalty kill, with the Kings allowing an xG rate of 13.84 per 60 over the last 10 games, which the goalies have struggled to contain. The offense still isn’t contender-worthy, either.
There are some internal solutions, like leaning on Brandt Clarke, who can at least add a spark from the back end. Plus, they have draft capital to spend on upgrades. But that requires 1) high-end options to be available on the trade market, and 2) the front office to recognize what has held this group back. While it’s a new era in the front office, with Ken Holland now running L.A., his track record isn’t exactly sterling — and it’s still Jim Hiller behind the bench, running more of the same playing style.
The path to the playoffs is there for the Kings in a weaker Pacific Division. But whether that can lead to anything besides a Round 1 exit is up for debate.
Dallas Stars
Concern-o-meter: 4/10
The Stars look locked into a Central Division playoff seed, with the third-best point percentage (0.670) in the league. So why is this team on the radar at all?
It’s a different level of concern in Dallas — it’s not a question of whether this team can reach the playoffs this year, or get back to the contender’s circle in the near future. It’s whether they have the chops to go further than seasons past, and that requires going through top contenders. Right now, that’s the Colorado Avalanche, a potential Round 2 opponent. And in Round 3, it could be a team like the Oilers, who have eliminated the Stars in two consecutive postseasons.
So a 2-5-3 record in the past 10 isn’t back-breaking in the standings, because the Stars had such a strong start. But it’s a sign of some negative trends worth tracking over this next stretch.
The Stars’ five-on-five offense is, once again, a red flag. It’s part of what got this team eliminated last spring, and while Jason Roberston helped spearhead the attack in November, the team has only scored 1.96 goals per 60 over the past 10 games. A lot of it is due to the bottom six — without Robertson or Mikko Rantanen on the ice, the team has been outscored 6-3 over this stretch with a 39 percent xG rate. Injuries play into that situation, along with some individual dips this year. Thomas Harley hasn’t been consistent enough, and even Jake Oettinger has had some off nights.
It may seem like nitpicking, or just small peanuts compared to some of these other struggling teams. But if the Stars are ultimately going to be the best in the West this year, those weaknesses could add up quickly when it matters most.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
