The Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker, landing the top free agent on the market with an eye-popping four-year, $240 million contract. After setting competitive balance tax records in each of the last two seasons, this move ensured they will stay in that area for at least two more years, if not longer.
But along with the pure financial cost of signing Tucker — $60 million per year on average, or $57.1 million AAV for competitive balance tax purposes accounting for deferrals — comes another penalty.
Tucker was one of nine free agents to reject a qualifying offer in November. Any new team that signs such a player faces a draft-pick loss. As a competitive balance tax payer, the Dodgers’ penalty for signing a qualifying-offer free agent is forfreiting their second- and fifth-highest draft picks. If this sounds familiar, it’s because the Dodgers already signed a qualifying-offer free agent by adding Edwin Díaz in December.
Signing free agents with a qualifying offer isn’t new for the Dodgers, having brought in A.J. Pollock (2019), Trevor Bauer (2021), Freddie Freeman (2022), and Shohei Ohtani (2024) previously. But this is the first time they’ve signed two in the same offseason.
Because the Dodgers gave up their second and fifth-highest picks for signing Díaz, their penalty for adding Tucker will be losing their third and sixth-round selections this July. That leaves a relatively bare cupboard at the top of their draft board for 2026.
The Dodgers’ first-round pick would normally be 30th overall, at the end of the first round after winning the World Series. But because they surpassed the third competitive balance tax threshold last season — they also blew past the fourth (highest) threshold, too — the Dodgers will see their first pick drop 10 slots to 40th overall. We saw this in both 2022 and 2024 as well.
The 2026 draft order isn’t yet finalized, as there are still three qualifying-offer free agents remaining on the market — Framber Valdez, Bo Bichette, and Zac Gallen. But we have at least a general idea of when the Dodgers will pick in July.
Dodgers 2026 draft bonus pool estimate
RoundPick No.2025 equivalent slot value140$2,443,6004137$534,1007226$248,7008256$210,9009286$195,30010316$187,300Totalbonus pool$3,819,900
pick numbers after 1st pick are estimated
A team’s draft bonus pool is comprised of the recommended slot values of every pick that team has in the first 10 rounds. Every signing bonus from the first 10 rounds is counted against the pool, as is any amount over $150,000 for picks after the 10th round. Teams are allowed to exceed the bonus pool, with a 75-percent tax on any overage up to five percent over the pool. Any overage above five percent would result in the loss of draft picks. In the 15 years of this system, no MLB team has spent enough to incur this draft-pick penalty.
But the bottom line is the Dodgers will have less to spend than probably any other year of the draft slotting system. If we use the 2025 slot values for each estimated Dodgers pick in 2026, that comes to $3,819,900. The slots and bonus pools increased by 8.7 percent from 2023 to 2024, but only went up by 4.8 percent from 2024 to 2025. If those total Dodgers slot values increase by 4.8 percent this year, they’ll have $4,003,255 to spend. If it goes up by 8.7 percent, they’ll have $4,152,231 to spend.
Either way, it’ll be their lowest bonus pool in the 16 years of the draft slotting system. Their previous low was in 2022 with $4,223,800 to spend, a little below 2021 when their bonus pool was $4,646,700. The Dodgers had a higher bonus pool even in 2020 ($5,928,500) when the draft was truncated to only five rounds.
