The NFL Playoffs continue this week, and we are back after going 3-1 in the Wildcard round. Let’s see if we can find four winners this week.
Domenic Padula: Rhamondre Stevenson over 19.5 receiving
Stevenson has cleared this mark in six straight games dating back to the regular season, including three receptions for 75 yards in New England’s Wild Card Weekend win over the Chargers. As impressive as TreyVeyon Henderson has looked at times this season, Stevenson’s production has ramped up since his return from injury, and it’s clear the Patriots trust the veteran on pass-catching downs due to his blocking ability and awareness. Houston has the most dominant defence in the NFL and the combination of an elite pass rush and one of the league’s best secondary will force second-year QB Drake Maye to get the football out of his hands quickly and lean on Stevenson again in the passing game. Stevenson over 19.5 receiving yards is my FanDuel Best Bet for the NFL Divisional Round.
Connor Ford: Troy Franklin Over 2.5 Receptions (+144)
Courtland Sutton is undoubtedly the number one receiver for the Broncos. However, don’t forget about Troy Franklin, who played with Bo Nix at Oregon for two seasons. Pat Bryant started to get involved near the end of this season, but I still think Franklin will see plenty of looks as a familiar target for Nix.
From Weeks 7-17, Sutton and Franklin had very similar numbers in terms of receiving usage:
- Sutton: 82 Targets, 46 Rec, 23.6 TPRR%, 1.82 YPRR, 22.0% Target Share
- Franklin: 67 Targets, 41 Rec, 23.3 TPRR%, 1.59 YPRR, 18.4% Target Share
As you can see, Sutton still has the slight edge, but this has become more of a 1A-1B situation. Franklin also leads the team with 288 plays from the slot, compared to just 162 for Sutton. That should leave Franklin with more favourable looks in the passing game.
Yes, the Bills’ passing defence is near the top of the league statistically. However, our guy Davis Sanchez pointed out that the Bills played minimal snaps in man defence last week against the Jags. If Buffalo continues to deploy a zone, that bodes well for Franklin, who had 54 receptions vs. zone this season. The second-year wide receiver has recorded 3+ receptions in 14/17 games this year, and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday.
Drew Morrison: DJ Moore Over 28.5 Receiving, Yards
The senior statesman in the Bears’ receiver room caught all five of his targets for 39 yards in the first half of last week’s wildcard win over the Packers. He was the busiest Bears receiver by far, before appearing to tweak his knee in the 3rd quarter. By looking at the boxscore, one might assume that everyone other than Colston Loveland was an afterthought in Chicago’s offence. But at the half, Moore led the team in targets, catches and yards and his knee didn’t prevent him from catching the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. He was listed as a limited participant in practice this week before returning in full for Friday’s session and carries no injury designation into the divisional round against the Rams. LA’s defence appears to have peaked midseason but even at its best, if there’s a weakness, it’s in the secondary.
The number is scary low. Like low-hanging fruit, it’s dangling. Hopefully, his knee isn’t as delicate. If Moore’s on the field and able to move, I believe he’ll continue to be a big part of the Bears’ offence.
Luke Bellus: Josh Allen anytime touchdown
When I talked to Drew earlier this week at the office, I was pretty sure he was going to take this prop as his best bet for the week, and I’m more than happy to grab it while he’s pivoted to Moore.
It’s no secret that this offence relies heavily on Josh Allen. With a lack of big play threats for Buffalo and the Denver defence being one of the best units in the league, I don’t see a lot of chunk plays in plus territory for Buffalo.
So if the Bills’ offence has to slowly work its way down the field in Denver, once they get near the goalline, it’s possible they tush push as much as needed to get Allen into the endzone.
Allen’s two rushing touchdowns last week brought him to nine on the ground in 14 career playoff games. Here’s hoping he makes it at least 10 for 15 this week.
When Drew and I spoke on Wednesday, we both agreed that at any point inside the 5-yard line, the Bills (and Allen) feel live to a tush push, and we have seen Buffalo lean on the QB sneak in recent postseason history.
