The winter storm watch issued last night, set to start this afternoon, has quickly been expanded in size and upgraded to a more certain winter storm warning. The warning message now mentions near-blizzard conditions.
Here is the winter storm warning as of 5:00 a.m. today. Just to the east of the winter storm warning area is a winter weather advisory for several inches less snow than the warning area.
Winter storm warning in pink. Winter weather advisory in purple.Mark Torregrossa
A closer look at southwest Michigan shows Grand Rapids now in the new and expanded winter storm warning area. The warning goes into effect at 4 p.m. for southwest Michigan.
Winter storm warning in pink. Winter weather advisory in purple.Mark Torregrossa
All of the Traverse City area is now in the winter storm warning area. The only difference from southwest Michigan is the official start time of the warning is 7 p.m. for northwest lower Michigan versus 4 p.m. for southwest lower Michigan.
Winter storm warning in pink. Winter weather advisory in purple.Mark Torregrossa
The winter storm warning is for occasional bursts of heavy snow this evening through Tuesday morning. The second severe winter weather factor will be strong wind gusts up to 40 mph. The strong gusts, combined with the fresh, fluffy snow, has caused the National Weather Service to add “near-blizzard conditions” to the winter storm warning.
Remember- a blizzard warning is issued only for the worst of winter conditions of gusts over 35 mph (likely) and visibility reduced to one-quarter mile due to falling snow and/or blowing snow(likely).
The debate usually on blizzard warning versus winter storm warning is how long the blizzard conditions last. The conditions have to be thought to last three hours or more for the blizzard warning. This length of blizzard conditions is also possible. We may see another upgrade to a blizzard warning early Monday morning.
The lake-effect snow will become widespread late this afternoon and continue at least until Tuesday morning.
The winds will gradually increase tonight and peak at gusts up to 40 mph Monday morning over western Michigan and early Monday afternoon over eastern Michigan.
Eastern Michigan will only have one inch to three inches of snow. There will be blowing and drifting, but probably not enough snow to issue anything more than a winter weather advisory for eastern lower Michigan.
Here’s the radar forecast from noon today to Tuesday. It could be 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. this evening before the heavier lake-effect snow develops.
Radar forecast from noon today, January 18 to 1 a.m. Tuesday, January 20.NOAA
Finally, here are the total snowfall forecasts from today through Tuesday. Anywhere west of U.S. 131 should get at least six inches of snow to as much as one foot of snow. Just east of the heaviest snow look for three to six inches of snow. The eastern half of lower Michigan should only get one to three inches of snow. It will be hard to measure because of the blowing and drifting.
Total snowfall forecast from today, January 18 to 7 p.m. Tuesday, January 20.NOAA
The Upper Peninsula will also get heavy snowfall.
Total snowfall forecast from today, January 18 to 7 p.m. Tuesday, January 20.NOAA
The National Weather Service has added the wording of “possible life-threatening travel conditions” to the winter storm warning for the western third of lower Michigan.
Do what you need to do today, before late afternoon in the west. Eastern Michigan road conditions won’t deteriorate until the middle of the night tonight. Of course, in many spots the roads aren’t in great shape even this morning.
Remember- we also have dangerously cold wind chills coming Monday into Tuesday.
Stay updated with Michigan’s active weather pattern at MLive.com/weather.
