Before Trump’s second term, Canada’s governing Liberal Party appeared headed towards a potentially historic collapse in the then-forthcoming federal election.
Polls at the time consistently showed the opposition Conservatives leading by a wide margin, with party leader Pierre Poilievre, whose focus on affordability was resonating with voters, likely to be the next prime minister.
Then the political script in Canada flipped.
Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January – an exit hastened in part by his finance minister publicly quitting in protest over his handling of Trump.
That made way for Carney, a former central banker with political ambitions, to run for the party’s leadership.
Carney leaned heavily on his economic experience as he campaigned as the man who could stand up to Trump and voters, anxious about Canada’s sovereignty and economy in the face of the new US administration, flocked back to the Liberals.
In late April’s election, Carney achieved what was unthinkable just a few months prior: another return to power for the Liberals, with voters giving the party a few seats shy of a majority government.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, lost their fourth consecutive election and Poilievre faces a leadership review later this month.
The latest polling, external indicates that Carney’s Liberals are a few points ahead of the Conservatives, though the gap between them has narrowed.
