Do you remember the first few minutes of the Patriots’ season?
How the worst team in football dropped a bomb on their defense on the opening drive of the season opener?
That’s right.
Raiders quarterback Geno Smith lobbed a 26-yard touchdown into the waiting arms of Tre Tucker over a poorly timed, badly executed blitz. It was third-and-11, and the Patriots’ two highest-paid defenders, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, had dropped into coverage while five teammates rushed around them. The unusual blitz gave Smith time and space, and he punished the Pats for being such considerate hosts.
Smith was, in two words, too comfortable.
The word Mike Vrabel wanted instead, and has repeated every time the Patriots have planned to blitz since, is a little different.
“I like how Vrabes describes our blitz. It should feel overwhelming for the offense,” said Pats defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga. “It shouldn’t be like, ‘Oh, it might hit here, it might hit there.’ The offense’s gotta feel that.”
Lately, his wish has been granted. Just ask Justin Herbert.
The Pats blitzed Herbert on 45% of his dropbacks last weekend and sacked him six times during a Wild Card win over the Chargers. That night, the Patriots’ pressure rate nearly doubled when they blitzed compared to their traditional four-man rush. The second blitz they sent was the same design that burned them in the opener.
This time, a harried Herbert fired incomplete on second-and-12. How far they’ve come.
“When we see the success with it, I think that just gives everybody confidence and more trust in calls,” said Patriots pass rusher Elijah Ponder. “So, if we keep doing what we need to do, it’s gonna work out.”
In an era where analytics and ever-growing coaching staffs allow teams to self-scout every week, the Patriots seem to have taken a more traditional approach and decided on a makeover after a self-examination last month during their bye. Since then, their offense has played through jumbo personnel at eight times the rate they had prior to the bye, and successfully revived its run game. Defensively, the Pats have embraced the blitz as their path to and through the postseason.
According to Sumer Sports, over the last five weeks, the Pats rank third in the NFL with a blitz rate of 38%. Prorated over the full season, that figure would rank second-highest across the league. In their last five games, only once has an opposing offense posted a success rate higher than 50% against the blitz, while the Pats’ pass defense ranks eight by Expected Points Added (EPA) per play.
There is a multi-layered calculation to this aggression. Start with a few simple facts about their four-man rush.
New England Patriots linebacker Harold Landry rushes during the second half of an NFL wild card playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday in Foxboro. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)
Veteran outside linebacker Harold Landry is simply not at full strength. Prior to suffering a knee injury at New Orleans in Week 6, Landry had two games with seven-plus pressures, per Pro Football Focus. He hasn’t tallied more than four pressures in a game since, and has been a staple on virtually every Patriots injury report and practice report over the last three months.
Williams returned to form with two sacks versus the Chargers, but may be the only pass rusher worthy of extra attention. Christian Barmore has 11 QB hits in 18 games this season. Flanking him on the opposite edge, K’Lavon Chaisson has enjoyed a late-career breakout, but he was mostly shut out until garbage time last Sunday versus the league’s worst pass-protecting offensive line.
All together, it’s a fine front four, but not one capable of carrying a defense, let alone a team, to the Super Bowl. Hence, the added blitz help.
“It is (a) game-to-game (decision),” Pats defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr said of blitzing, “but at some point, you got to feel what is working best for you without being reckless.”
Help for the Patriots’ front four takes two forms: extra rushers and tight coverage in the secondary. Kuhr couldn’t roll the dice with these blitzes if he didn’t trust Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis to tilt the odds back in his favor. As two of the better man-coverage corners in the league, if Gonzalez and Davis can blanket their receivers, that shuts two immediate throwing windows available to the quarterback, who has no choice but to hold onto the ball.
In retrospect, the fact Gonzalez didn’t allow a catch last week made him as central to the Patriots’ blitzing success as any pass rusher.
“If you’re blitzing and you’re giving up quick (passes) and that’s leading into first downs,” said Pats linebacker Robert Spillane, “it’s not great.”
The Pats aren’t waiting until third down to unleash hounds, either. Their first defensive snap against Los Angeles was a blitz, a way to push the Chargers back so they could free themselves from any responsibilities of defending the run. Because even against a passer like Herbert, the Patriots want to put every game they can on a quarterback’s shoulders.
“Any time you’re able to force third-and-long situations, that’s where you want to be as a defense,” Spillane said.
That especially holds true for this defense.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Pats finished No. 2 in the league by EPA per play on third-and-long plays during the regular season. Over the last five weeks, their success on third down has almost entirely hinged on whether they’ve blitzed. The Patriots rank first in EPA per play when blitzing on third down, per Sports Info. Solutions, and fourth-worst when using a standard rush.
Near the end of their Wild Card game, the Pats pummeled Herbert no matter how many rushers they sent. Kuhr had set the Chargers up by blitzing early in the game and early in possessions, initiating a long game that should also factor this Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) is tackled by New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, left, and safety Jaylinn Hawkins during the first half of an NFL game on Sunday, Dec. 21 in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)
Any time the Patriots succeed with a new blitz or bluffed blitz in the first quarter, offenses expect to see it again later in the game. Having set that expectation, Kuhr can disguise new play-calls using the same pre-snap picture they showed on the initially successful call. This renders any adjustment an offense has made to that defense ineffective, potentially giving the Patriots a free runner at a quarterback on a new blitz or their four-man rush more time to reach a quarterback who believed he would get one coverage and instead is seeing another.
“When defenses make one thing look like something else, and when they get back to that later on in the game, I think that can be a little bit challenging just because you get set into certain patterns, or they’ve shown you something and got you into a rhythm,” Pats quarterbacks coach Grant said. “And when they change that rhythm, that can be a little bit challenging.”
Now, here come the Texans and C.J. Stroud.
Stripped of his No. 1 receiver Nico Collins, Stroud will not have an easy button in the face of blitz pressure, disguised coverage or both. His offensive line is full of holes.
Sunday’s game, before the Patriots even take the field, is on Stroud’s shoulders as much any other player.
The Patriots’ game plan for Houston and the game plan against Stroud will be one and the same. Kuhr may have hinted at his plan on Thursday, stressing how effective Stroud is when unbothered.
“When he’s in a clean pocket, he is deadly,” Kuhr said.
Under pressure, of course, is another story. It could be the story of another Patriots win.
Better make him feel overwhelmed.
Quote of the Week
“I don’t give a s— what anyone says, to be honest with you. It’s easy to type behind a Twitter account that is fake. I hold myself to the highest expectation of anybody. I want to be perfect, and it’s hard for me to get told that it’s going to be hard to be perfect. The Chargers (game), obviously I didn’t pitch a shutout. (I) had two or three plays that I wish I could have back. But, that’s $300 million in defensive ends.” — Patriots left tackle Will Campbell on social-media criticism
