The first round of the Australian Open wraps up on Day 3 as some of the top players in the world make their 2026 Melbourne debuts. No. 8 seed Ben Shelton squares off against Ugo Humbert in a blockbuster first-round encounter. Elsewhere around the grounds, Day 3 welcomes Jannik Sinner vs Hugo Gaston, Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon, Taylor Fritz vs Valentin Royer, and Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen. Offering their insights and predictions are Zain Mustafa, Ilemona Onekutu, and Tope Oke. But who will advance?
Australian Open Men’s Day 3 Predictions
Luciano Darderi vs Cristian Garin
Zain
This is a clash between two true clay-court players, so long rallies and a potential grind are expected. While Cristian Garin has the experience advantage, Luciano Darderi has been the better player overall for a while now, and he should be able to play more points on his terms than his opponent, giving him the edge here.
Prediction: Darderi in 4
Ilemona
Garin’s grinding style can be suffocating, yet hard courts blunt his biggest strengths. Darderi’s heavier forehand and willingness to step inside the baseline should allow him to dictate more exchanges.
Prediction: Darderi in 5
Tope
Two players with South American roots and clay preference meet on hardcourts for the first time. While Garin has more experience on the surface, Darderi is the all-around better player and should find a navigate a win in this tricky tie.
Prediction: Darderi in 4
Tallon Griekspoor vs Ethan Quinn
Zain
For a long stretch in 2025, it felt like Tallon Griekspoor had forgotten how to play tennis due to physical and confidence issues. While the Dutchman has still not fully found his form again, this is a matchup he should like, having the more rounded and aggressive game against Ethan Quinn, who will be playing his first main-draw match at the Australian Open.
Prediction: Griekspoor in 4
Ilemona
Quinn’s aggression is exciting, but it often comes with swings in momentum. Griekspoor’s serve-plus-one patterns and cleaner shot selection should keep him ahead when pressure mounts.
Prediction: Griekspoor in 4
Tope
When fit, Tallon Griekspoor is one of the toughest competitors on tour, but the Dutchman is on a five-match barren run, including three straight-set defeats this year. The capable Quinn will be lurking to take his chances.
Prediction: Quinn in 5
James Duckworth vs Dino Prizmic
Zain
While Dino Prizmic showed great potential at this very tournament a couple of years ago in a loss to Novak Djokovic, physical issues and inconsistency have held him back. Entering the draw as a lucky loser should give him confidence to play freely, but James Duckworth’s experience and home support might be a bridge too far for the Croatian.
Prediction: Duckworth in 5
Ilemona
Prizmic’s intensity is undeniable, but Duckworth’s familiarity with the conditions and crowd energy gives him a subtle edge. That comfort should help him manage momentum swings and close out tight sets.
Prediction: Duckworth in 4
Tope
Dino Prizmic has shown his ability to dominate at lower levels, but his transition to the main tour has been hindered by recurring fitness issues. This inexperience on the big stage firmly tilts the advantage in James Duckworth’s favour, especially on the hardcourts of Melbourne.
Prediction: Duckworth in 3
Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert
Zain
Ben Shelton could not have had a much more difficult draw despite being a top-eight seed, having to face a fellow big-serving lefty in Ugo Humbert. The big knock against Humbert has been that he does not manage best-of-five-set tennis well, something Shelton has excelled at in his young career. Still, while Shelton is still rounding into form after a significant injury, Humbert looked quite good in Adelaide, good enough for me to go for the upset.
Prediction: Humbert in 4
Ilemona
Both thrive on quick points, but Shelton’s lefty patterns and flatter returns are better suited to neutralizing pace. If rallies extend beyond the first strike, his court craft should quietly assert control.
Prediction: Shelton in 5
Tope
Ben Shelton has looked the most vulnerable since his breakout season a few years ago. He closed last season with four consecutive losses, and he surprisingly lost against Sebastian Baez last week in Auckland. Humbert, on the other hand, finished Adelaide as runner-up, arriving here after a busy week. The Frenchman has suffered three first-round exits in Melbourne, and he holds a miserly 1-6 record against top-10 players in majors. The omens are not in his favour.
Prediction: Shelton in 4
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran – USA TODAY Sports
