A year ago in this column, I made the regrettable decision to rank Penn State No. 1 because it was bringing almost everyone back. A year later, that same program will have a new coach, Matt Campbell, and may start a transfer at most of the 22 positions.
That’s how quickly programs can turn over in the portal/NIL era. Which makes it nearly impossible to predict whether the Nittany Lions will be a Top 25 team. (I’m leaving them out for now.)
I feel much better about this year’s No. 1 team, Oregon, which got a huge lift when projected top-five draft pick Dante Moore decided to come back and will try to win the Big Ten its fourth consecutive national championship.
As for Monday night’s finalists, runner-up Miami and national champion Indiana, I had them No. 15 and No. 20, respectively, this time last year. Which means nearly all of the teams you see listed here may well play for the national championship come Jan. 25, 2027, in Las Vegas.
1. Oregon (13-2 in 2025)
Key returnees: QB Dante Moore, RB Jordon Davison, DE Matayo Uiagalelei, DT A’Mauri Washington, DT Bear Alexander, OLB Teitum Tuioti
Key transfers: QB Dylan Raiola (Nebraska), WR Iverson Hooks (UAB), OT Michael Bennett (Yale), S Koi Perich (Minnesota)
Oregon should be loaded, as not just Moore, but the Ducks’ entire first-string defensive line put off the NFL. RBs Davison and Dierre Hill and WRs Jeremiah McClellan and Dakorien Moore all shined as freshmen. Breakout CB Brandon Finney and All-Big Ten transfer Perich headline a stout secondary. The biggest concerns: Dan Lanning will have two new coordinators and will need to identify two new starters at offensive tackle.
2. Ohio State (12-2)
Key returnees: QB Julian Sayin, RB Bo Jackson, WR Jeremiah Smith, OT Austin Siereveld, DE Kenyatta Jackson, CB Jermaine Mathews Jr.
Key transfers: DT James Smith (Alabama), DE Qua Russaw (Alabama), S Earl Little Jr. (Florida State), S Terry Moore (Duke)
The Buckeyes’ season ended in disappointment, but they’re still the sport’s surest bet to reload. Not only do Sayin, Smith and Jackson return, but so do four starters on the offensive line. However, Ryan Day must again replace the bulk of his lineup on defense, including projected first-rounders Arvell Reese, Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles. He’ll need the Alabama duo of Smith and Russaw to develop quickly up front.
3. Georgia (12-2)
Key returnees: QB Gunner Stockton, RB Nate Frazier, TE Lawson Luckie, DE Gabe Harris, LB Raylen Wilson, S KJ Bolden
Key transfers: WR Isiah Canion (Georgia Tech), edge Amaris Williams (Auburn), S Khalil Barnes (Clemson)
Georgia’s offense brings back Stockton, running backs Frazier and Chauncey Bowens and four offensive line starters, but it loses six of its top seven receptions leaders. Some current freshmen will need to step up. Kirby Smart’s 2025 defense was young, so most of the two-deep will be back, though the Dawgs need to develop a more consistent pass rush. Returning kicker Peyton Woodring was second-team All-SEC.
4. Miami (13-3)
Key returnees: RB Mark Fletcher Jr., WR Malachi Toney, DT Ahmad Moten, S Zechariah Poyser, S Bryce Fitzgerald, CB Xavier Lucas
Key transfers: WR Vandrevius Jacobs (South Carolina), WR Cam Vaughn (West Virginia), S Omar Thornton (Boston College)
In an 11th-hour portal move, Miami is expected to land Duke star Darian Mensah, this year’s second team All-ACC quarterback. Fletcher’s return is huge, as the Canes should be strong up front again. Star pass rushers Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor are off to the NFL, but talented sophomores Justin Scott, Armondo Blount and Marquise Lightfoot all played key roles on this year’s national runner-up. Miami’s secondary should be stout.
5. Texas (10-3)
Key returnees: QB Arch Manning, WR Ryan Wingo, LT Trevor Goosby, edge Colin Simmons, LB Brad Spence, S Jelani McDonald
Key transfers: RB Hollywood Smothers (NC State), RB Raleek Brown (Arizona State), WR Cam Coleman (Auburn), OT Melvin Siani (Wake Forest), LB Rasheem Biles (Pitt)
Steve Sarkisian went all-out in the portal to upgrade Manning’s supporting cast. Coleman was 247Sports’ No. 1 receiver, Smothers its No. 2 tailback and Siani its No. 3 tackle. Siani helps upgrade an underperforming O-line. Will Muschamp takes over a defense that must replace veterans Anthony Hill Jr., Michael Taaffe and Ethan Burke. But Simmons is an All-American, and Biles is a two-time All-ACC selection.
Arch Manning passed for 3,163 yards in his first season as Texas’ starter. (Dustin Markland / Getty Images)
6. Indiana (16-0)
Key returnees: WR Charlie Becker, DT Tyrique Tucker, LB Rolijah Hardy, LB Isaiah Jones
Key transfers: QB Josh Hoover (TCU), RB Turbo Richard (Boston College), WR Nick Marsh (Michigan State), DE Tobi Osunsanmi (Kansas State), CB A.J. Harris (Penn State)
WR Omar Cooper Jr., LT Carter Smith and CB D’Angelo Ponds have not yet announced their NFL decisions. Regardless, Indiana loses most of its offense after winning the national title, as well as several key defenders, but it should still have explosive skill talent and a stout D-line. Curt Cignetti tapped TCU’s Hoover (9,629 career passing yards) to succeed Fernando Mendoza, who is expected to enter the draft. IU’s highly regarded portal class includes reinforcements at nearly every position, but especially receivers and pass rushers.
7. Notre Dame (10-2)
Key returnees: QB CJ Carr, WR Jordan Faison, DE Boubacar Traore, LB Drayk Bowen, CB Leonard Moore, S Adon Shuler
Key transfers: WR Quincy Porter (Ohio State), DE Keon Keeley (Alabama), DT Francis Brewu (Pitt)
The Irish have big shoes to fill in their backfield in losing Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but Carr, the nation’s fifth-rated passer in 2025, is a great cornerstone to build an offense around. Meanwhile, the Irish bring back nearly the entire defense, including one of the nation’s best secondaries. The addition of Brewu, an honorable mention All-ACC selection, filled a big need on the interior D-line.
8. BYU (12-2)
Key returnees: QB Bear Bachmeier, RB LJ Martin, WR/PR Parker Kingston, S Faletau Satuala, LB Isaiah Glasker, CB Evan Johnson
Key transfers: TE Walker Lyons (USC), OL Paki Finau (Washington), LB Cade Uluave (Cal)
BYU, 23-4 the past two seasons, will be loaded with returning production. Martin was Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, and Bachmeier was named Big 12 Freshman of the Year. The defense must replace two first team all-conference standouts, sack leader Jack Kelly and S Tanner Wall, but it got a huge addition in Uluave, who led Cal with 100 tackles. And Kalani Sitake just signed a top-25 recruiting class.
9. Oklahoma (10-3)
Key returnees: QB John Mateer, WR Isaiah Sategna III, DE Taylor Wein, LB Kip Lewis, S Peyton Bowen, K Tate Sandell
Key transfers: WR Trell Harris (Virginia), WR Parker Livingstone (Texas), OL E’Marion Harris (Arkansas), LB Cole Sullivan (Michigan)
Oklahoma made it to the CFP despite a limited offense, but Mateer will hopefully be healthier, while Sategna (965 yards in 2025), Harris (847) and Livingstone (516) are a formidable receiving trio. The running game remains a concern. Brent Venables’ top-10 scoring defense loses standout end R Mason Thomas but brings back some of its best playmakers and adds Big Ten starter Sullivan. Sandell won the Lou Groza Award.
10. Texas Tech (12-2)
Key returnees: RB Cameron Dickey, RB J’Koby Williams, WR Coy Eakin, DT A.J. Holmes Jr., LB Ben Roberts, CB Brice Pollock
Key transfers: QB Brendan Sorsby (Cincinnati), WR Malcolm Simmons (Auburn), DT Mateen Ibirogba (Wake Forest), edge Adam Trick (Miami of Ohio), edge Trey White (San Diego State)
The Big 12 champs will attempt to replace stud D-linemen David Bailey, Lee Hunter and Romello Height with another wave of transfers. Ibirogba was among the top D-linemen in the portal, while Trick and White were both first team all-conference. But All-American LB Jacob Rodriguez may prove irreplaceable. Sorsby, No. 2 in The Athletic’s portal QB rankings, should be an upgrade from Behren Morton as QB1. Dickey and Williams combined for 1,992 rushing yards.
11. Texas A&M (11-2)
Key returnees: QB Marcel Reed, RB Rueben Owens II, WR Mario Craver, DT DJ Hicks, S Dalton Brooks
Key transfers: WR Isaiah Horton (Alabama), OL Wilkin Formby (Alabama), OL Tyree Adams (LSU), edge Anto Saka (Northwestern), CB Rickey Gibson III (Tennessee)
A&M is fortunate to have Reed back as the centerpiece of its offense, but he’ll be playing behind a mostly new O-line. Mike Elko added four transfers with SEC starting experience to compete for those spots. The Aggies will miss all-purpose dynamo KC Concepcion, but Craver and Horton should form a solid receiving duo. The front seven will need to reload as well. Elko signed eight edge players or D-linemen in the portal.
12. USC (9-4)
Key returnees: QB Jayden Maiava, RB King Miller, WR Tanook Hines, DE Kameryn Crawford, DT Jahkeem Stewart
Key transfers: WR Terrell Anderson (NC State), LB Deven Bryant (Washington), CB Jontez Williams (Iowa State)
Maiava, who finished sixth nationally in yards per attempt (9.2), enters his third year at USC after beginning his college career at UNLV. Star receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane both turned pro, but Hines could be USC’s next great wideout. The Trojans’ entire Week 1 O-line is back, and their D-line should be a strength, though Lincoln Riley has not named a new defensive coordinator. USC’s No. 1 recruiting class should produce some impact freshmen.
Lincoln Riley is 35-18 in four seasons as USC’s head coach. (Harry How / Getty Images)
13. Missouri (8-5)
Key returnees: RB Ahmad Hardy, RB Jamal Roberts, WR Donovan Olugbode, OT Cayden Green, LB Nicholas Rodriguez, S Santana Banner
Key transfers: QB Austin Simmons (Ole Miss), OT Josh Atkins (Arizona State), LB Robert Woodyard Jr. (Auburn), CB Elijah Dotson (Michigan)
New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey (Michigan) inherits quite the tandem with Hardy (1,649 yards) and Roberts (753). Simmons, Ole Miss’ Week 1 starter before getting hurt, will compete with three-game freshman starter Matt Zollers. The Tigers’ top-10 defense took a hit when DE Damon Wilson II went in the portal, but the linebackers and safeties are strong. Mizzou will rely on transfers at cornerback. Special teams need to improve.
14. Michigan (9-4)
Key returnees: QB Bryce Underwood, RB Jordan Marshall, WR Andrew Marsh, CB Jyaire Hill, CB Zeke Berry
Key transfers: TE JJ Buchanan (Utah), DE John Henry Daley (Utah), CB Smith Snowden (Utah)
Underwood had an underwhelming freshman season but should benefit from the arrival of Kyle Whittingham and OC Jason Beck, who developed Utah star Devon Dampier. Michigan will have another strong running game, led by Marshall. The front seven loses a ton of experience but at least adds Daley, who led Utah with 11.5 sacks. Young D-linemen will need to emerge. The secondary can be a strength, though.
15. Ole Miss (13-2)
Key returnees: RB Kewan Lacy, WR Deuce Alexander, C Brycen Sanders, DT Will Echoles, LB Suntarine Perkins
Key transfers: QB Deuce Knight (Auburn), WR Darrell Gill Jr. (Syracuse), DT Jaheim Oatis (Colorado), LB Keaton Thomas (Baylor), CB Jay Crawford (Auburn), CB Sharif Denson (Florida)
Lacy, a first team All-American, is back after running for 1,567 yards and 24 TDs. With star QB Trinidad Chambliss’ eligibility up in the air, Pete Golding landed 2025 five-star Knight to succeed him if necessary. Golding will rely heavily on transfer receivers. Several key defensive players went in the portal, but Ole Miss added several replacements with Power 4 starting experience. Oatis and Oregon’s Blake Purchase should help shore up the front seven.
16. LSU (7-6)
Key returnees: RB Harlem Berry, RB Caden Durham, TE Trey’Dez Green, LB Whit Weeks, CB DJ Pickett
Key transfers: QB Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), WR Jayce Brown (Kansas State), OL Devin Harper (Ole Miss), LB TJ Dottery (Ole Miss), S Ty Benefield (Boise State)
Lane Kiffin went all-in on flipping LSU’s roster with more than 35 additions. Leavitt led Arizona State to the 2024 Big 12 title, while Dottery and Benefield played key roles on CFP teams. Kiffin made the O-line a priority after seeing LSU’s woeful 2025 unit. Retaining DC Blake Baker and stars Weeks and Keys was huge for the defense, but otherwise most of the personnel will look different.
17. Louisville (9-4)
Key returnees: RB Isaac Brown, RB Keyjuan Brown, DE Clev Lubin, DE AJ Green, LB Stanquan Clark
Key transfers: QB Lincoln Kienholz (Ohio State), WR/KR Tre Richardson (Vanderbilt), edge Tyler Thompson (North Carolina), S Koen Entringer (Iowa)
Jeff Brohm’s team started 7-1, with a win at Miami, but lost three straight in November after Isaac Brown (8.8 yards per carry) went down. He’s back, as is sidekick Keyjuan Brown (7.3 YPC). Brohm is betting on Kienholz, the former Ohio State backup who was neck-and-neck with Julian Sayin last preseason, and landed Richardson, Vandy’s leading receiver. Louisville fielded a top-20 defense but must replace four of its top five tacklers.
18. Iowa (9-4)
Key returnees: RB Kamari Moulton, TE DJ Vonnahme, OL Trevor Lauck, OL Kade Pieper, LB Jayden Montgomery, DB Zach Lutmer
Key transfers: RB L.J Phillips Jr. (South Dakota), WR Tony Diaz (UT Rio Grande Valley), DE Kahmari Brown (Elon)
Kirk Ferentz will hold a quarterback competition between third-year Wake Forest transfer Jeremy Hecklinski and brief Auburn starter Hank Brown. Iowa should have a strong rushing attack behind Phillips, who ran for an FCS-leading 1,921 yards as a sophomore, and Moulton. The D-line will need to reload, with Elon transfer Brown (12 sacks) entering the mix alongside youngsters such as Iose Epenesa. Lutmer has All-America potential.
19. Washington (9-4)
Key returnees: QB Demond Williams Jr., WR/PR Dezmen Roebuck, OL John Mills, edge Jacob Lane, LB Jacob Manu, LB Xe’ree Alexander
Key transfers: RB Jayden Limar (Oregon), DT DeSean Watts (Sacramento State), CB Emmanuel Karnley (Virginia)
Jedd Fisch welcomed back his star quarterback, Williams, after his near-departure, but he has to replace standout RB Jonah Coleman and WR Denzel Boston. Roebuck was an impressive freshman starter. DC Ryan Walters’ top-20 unit could be the Huskies’ strength, led by the linebackers and secondary. Manu, limited to five games this season, was first-team All-Pac-12 at Arizona. Fisch signed four portal D-linemen to address depth concerns.
Demond Williams is staying at Washington after a brief transfer portal flirtation. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
20. Alabama (11-4)
Key returnees: WR Ryan Williams, WR Lotzeir Brooks, LB Yhonzae Pierre, CB Zabien Brown, S Bray Hubbard, S Keon Sabb
Key transfers: WR Noah Rogers (NC State), DE Devan Thompkins (USC)
Alabama will have a new quarterback, Austin Mack or Keelon Russell, and a lot of questions on offense. Receiver remains a strength, but Kalen DeBoer will have a young O-line and needs new running backs to emerge after Jam Miller turned pro. The Tide return more proven players on defense, bringing back their entire starting secondary and top pass rusher Pierre, but they got wiped out on the D-line. Bama’s No. 2 recruiting class could help.
21. Houston (10-3)
Key returnees: QB Conner Weigman, WR Amare Thomas, OL McKenzie Agnello, CB Will James, S Kentrell Webb
Key transfers: RB Makhi Hughes (Oregon), OL Shadre Hurst (Tulane), C Anthony Boswell (Toledo), S Javion White (Tulane)
Houston jumped from 4-8 to 10-3 in Willie Fritz’s second season, thanks in part to Weigman’s arrival, and it suffered little portal attrition. Hughes ran for 2,779 yards in two seasons at Tulane (the first with Fritz) but struggled to crack Oregon’s rotation. Houston’s biggest holes are on the offensive line, but Fritz brought in several Group of 5 starters. The majority of the defense returns, and White was an all-conference pick at Tulane.
22. SMU (9-4)
Key returnees: QB Kevin Jennings, WR/PR Yamir Knight, RT PJ Williams, LB Brandon Booker, LB Alexander Kilgore, S Tyren Polley Jr.
Key transfers: RB Kendrick Raphael (Cal), WR Yannick Smith (East Carolina), TE Theo Melin Ohrstrom (Texas A&M), DE Marques White (UMass), LB Ira Singleton (USF)
Rhett Lashlee, 31-10 since 2023 and 14-2 so far in ACC play, has proven adept at reloading. SMU retained a cornerstone in Jennings, who has thrown for 6,886 yards the past two seasons and led the Mustangs to a CFP berth in 2024. Cal’s Raphael, who ran for 943 yards and 13 TDs this season, was a huge get. Lashlee also used the portal to replenish SMU’s depleted tight end unit and add more pass rushers.
23. Boise State (9-5)
Key returnees: QB Maddux Madsen, RB Dylan Riley, RB Sire Gaines, DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan, DE Max Stege, LB Boen Phelps
Key transfers: RB Juelz Goff (Pitt), OT Tyler Ethridge (CSU-Pueblo), S Roman Tillmon (South Dakota)
Most of this year’s top Group of 6 programs (including CFP teams Tulane and James Madison) lost their coaches, but three-time MWC champ Spencer Danielson will lead Boise into the new Pac-12. Madsen will be a third-year starter, and Riley and Gaines combined for 1,936 rushing yards. The front seven should be strong. But the Broncos must replace two all-conference O-linemen, all their top pass catchers and most of their secondary.
24. Utah (11-2)
Key returnees: QB Devon Dampier, RB Wayshawn Parker, DE Kash Dillon, LB Johnathan Hall, S Jackson Bennee
Key transfers: RB Steve Chavez-Soto (San Jose State), WR Braden Pegan (Utah State), WR Kyri Shoels (San Jose State), DE Ethan Day (North Texas)
Utah suffered considerable attrition when Whittingham left for Michigan, including several key players who followed him. However, Morgan Scalley retained his most important player, Dampier, as well as No. 2 QB Byrd Ficklin, while adding several productive skill players in the portal. Unfortunately, the Utes will have to build an entirely new O-line. Utah brings back several key players on defense but will miss sack leader John Henry Daley.
25. Florida (4-8)
Key returnees: RB Jadan Baugh, WR Vernell Brown III, WR Dallas Wilson, DE Jayden Woods, LB Myles Graham, S Bryce Thornton
Key transfers: QB Aaron Philo (Georgia Tech), RB Evan Pryor (Cincinnati), WR Eric Singleton Jr. (Auburn), DL Emmanuel Oyebadejo (Jacksonville State)
Florida could make a big jump in Jon Sumrall’s first season after retaining most of its key players (minus QB DJ Lagway), especially at the skill positions. New OC Buster Faulkner trusts his former Georgia Tech quarterback, Philo, who attempted 102 passes over the last two seasons in relief of star Haynes King. O-line will be a question. Though the Gators struggled on defense, Sumrall likes what he has. Only seven of his 25 portal additions are defenders.
Just missed: Arizona, Penn State, Illinois, Virginia, Minnesota
