Motley Fool analysts look at the U.S. government’s backing of the business and what it might mean for future returns.
In this podcast, Motley Fool analysts Asit Sharma, Rick Munarriz, and Tim Beyers discuss:
- Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s meeting with President Donald Trump.
- Plans for advanced (or even AI) chipmaking on U.S. soil.
- The challenges of growing the foundry business versus the promises baked into the current share price.
Don’t wait! Be sure to get to your favorite bookseller and pick up a copy of David’s Gardner’s new book — Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth.
To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool’s free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you’re ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy.
A full transcript is below.
This podcast was recorded on Jan. 12, 2026.
Tim Beyers: Intel sets new highs, its climb just beginning. You’re listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome, Fools. I’m your host, Tim Beyers, and with me are two old friends, Rick Munarriz and Asit Sharma. I hope you’re both fully caffeinated because we’ve got a pretty caffeinated stock to talk about today, and that is Intel, Ticker INTC. As of the time I wrote these notes on Friday, the stock had hit a fresh 52 week high, a $45.67 a share. Is this the beginning of an extended rally that will last years, or is this time to cash in on a burst of enthusiasm and move capital into more proven chip stocks? I think these are really interesting question, and we’re going to tackle both of them. We are then going to get a bit philosophical because we’re going to have another episode of Mindset Monday, which is perfect for Asit and Rick. But first we have to talk about Intel. Rick, I’m going to start with you here. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, had a meeting with Intel CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, and he was very excited about this meeting. He said, I just had a great meeting. He put this out on his social media platform saying, I just had a meeting with a very successful Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Intel just launched his first sub-2 nanometer CPU processor design built PAC is right here in the USA. I think we can say with some confidence here, Rick, that the president isn’t making any serious technical statements. But what we do know is that he does seem to be excited about putting federal funds and federal backing behind Intel. In particular, there is one defense department initiative underway that will allow Intel to get a serious amount of money, billions of dollars, for manufacturing for the federal government. Do you think this enthusiasm for Intel is warranted? How are you feeling about Intel, knowing that it’s hit a 52-week high??
Rick Munarriz: Sometimes you see stock start to move up before the fundamentals get there. With Intel you see that. At 2025 will be the fourth consecutive year of declining revenue. Until still not profitable on a reported basis. It’s not generating positive free cashflow, something that analysts don’t see changing until 2027. But what you mentioned what happened in August when the US said, we’re going to put $8.9 billion for a 9.9% stake in August, that’s basically now worth more than 20 billion. You, me, and Asit, we chown about $60, if my math is correct, $60 worth of Intel, just as being a US citizen. You have this case where there is that enthusiasm that obviously that’s where the White House is coming from. But it is the thing where now it has to prove it to me. Show me that you can do this. I think that’s the whole thing. Intel is doing a lot of right things, it had a great CES last week. A lot of buzz, but the results aren’t there yet. That’s, I think, what we need to wait for to see if the run-up that the stock has had, a monstrous run-up over the past year is warranted.
Tim Beyers: Asit, let’s talk about at least part of the technical stuff that President Trump is talking about here. Intel in the United States is planning to bring online plants that will provide chip making in two distinct but very advanced processes. One called 18A, one called 14A. The president did point out correctly that these are sub two nanometer. 18A is 1.8 nanometer, 14A is 1.4 nanometer. This is really small, and the smaller the chip, the more power efficient it can be, sometimes you can put more of these chips together on a wafer so you can create a more powerful chip. The implication here is that these processes are going to be highly useful for things like, wait for it, AI, Asit.
Asit Sharma: You’re right.
Tim Beyers: How big a deal is this, do you think, making essentially highly advanced chips here on US shores? How much credit should we give Intel for this, knowing that it’s not done yet, but they are working on it?
Asit Sharma: Let’s give Intel the credit upfront for working on it. The US ceded its most advanced chip making capabilities to Taiwan years ago. Intel itself was the manufacturer at scale of our best technology when it came to chips, and really just got off track in so many different ways. This represents a comeback for Intel. If you ever hear that Intel has a comeback story, this is part and parcel of that. Where we get into these distinctions between 18A and 14A, to put it simply, you can imagine the same process but getting more refined in Stage 2. 18A is distinguished by really two things. These nanosheet transistors, and then moving the power from the front of the wafer to the back of the wafer. Nothing in 18A should be taken as that number represents some smaller aperture, or whatnot. As you said, it’s really already a two-nanometer and below process. Very intricate designs on a chip. When you move from 18A to 14A, what’s going to happen is these machines that ASML makes, it’s most valuable machines. These are lithography machines that companies like Intel buy to write onto silicon substrates. They’re going to use their latest and greatest machines, which are high NA EUV machines. This is interesting because ASML has been waiting for its customers to adopt their latest technology. Funnily enough, it could be Intel that’s at the forefront of that. But to get to 14A, and the reason why I’m going to this level of detail, it takes a lot. It’s going to have to prove out this first process and, of course, they now have processor that’s recently been released that runs on 18A. It’s going to take a while, Tim, to get to 14A for that process to be widely adopted by major players, and this is why Rick says, look, the stock price is ahead of where the tech is just now. I’ll point out NVIDIA, great story here. They invested in Intel also, $5 billion. They’ve been testing out 18A. They backed off, we heard in December, from going any further in their test. Now, we shouldn’t confuse this with NVIDIA getting really down on Intel’s process. NVIDIA in the first place is using this for its CPUs, and to get to where it needs to for 18A to be part of its GPU process flow, that development flow, it’s going to take a lot. Intel’s going to approve a lot. But they’ve got the money from NVIDIA. NVIDIA’s a great partner for all the other stuff. There’s a lot for this story to work out in the future. I myself, full disclosure here, more than 60 bucks, I purchased a Intel early last year and have enjoyed the gains. But I realize as a rational shareholder, it’s still got to come up with a major foundry partners, and more big players need to step forward and say, we’re going to use this technology before we can feel that Intel’s out of the woods.
Tim Beyers: We don’t have a lot of Intel announcements about customers that are using the Intel foundry for manufacturing at scale, their most advanced chips. We know that Amazon Web Services is doing this, we know that NVIDIA at least is trialing some things. What Intel has said is that they expect those most advanced chips, those 14A designs you were talking about, Asit, there will start to be decisions about manufacturing at that level in the first half of 2027, say that three times fast. But essentially, maybe call it spring or late spring of 2027. We’re not there yet, but it’s early enough. Having said that, Rick, I’ll start with you here. Intel Foundry, for really the past few years has been a net zero in terms of contributor to Intel. Now that there’s a chance that it’s not going to be a net zero, are you buy, sell, or hold Intel on the promise that Intel Foundry, with doing business primarily here in the United States, is going to be a material contributor to Intel? Buy, sell, or hold, based on the hope for Intel Foundry here, Rick.
Rick Munarriz: Yes, I’m excited that the Intel inside company that’s been the Intel outside looking in for so many years is back to having a nice primary seat, potentially a leader of this new revolution. The 18A not only just what we talked about AI, but also gaming and more power efficiency, these things that matter. They’re making a splash in here. It’ll take a while to catch up with the NVIDIAs and the MDs of the world in many ways. But I’m excited about all that. But again, I’m happy with my $60 that I have my share indirectly through being. I’m not so excited to jump on the stock now because it has run up so much. Even looking out to next year, it’s not like investors are expecting it will be a return to growth and a return to profitability, but it’s just a very small step not moving the needle yet. This is a long-term play. I think as an investor, it’s exciting. Intel’s definitely a better company now than it was a year ago. Definitely the 10 months that Lip-Bu Tan has been CEO has been an amazing run for any incoming CEO and outsider CEO at that. But I do think I want to wait. I think I can afford to wait because I think the stock will be volatile in the next year or two, and I think I’ll be able to pick a better entry point, and hopefully at a point where some of these products and all this demand and the fact that they’re saying, demand is exceeding supply, something that we haven’t seen in Intel in a long time. These things that are being said and happening are exciting, I want to see it bear out to actual reality.
Tim Beyers: Asit, Rick is pretty happy with his holdings as a US citizen. You are a shareholder so are you buy, sell, or hold those Intel shares? You maybe want to buy a little bit more on the promise of Intel Foundry?
Asit Sharma: Yes, Tim. I am $1 cost average in buy on Intel. I think Rick put it so wonderfully. That doesn’t have to be dollar-cost averaging it every month this year. You could just wait. This business is going to be volatile, and the stock is going to be volatile to follow. But I have to say, let’s give a lot of credit to Lip-Bu Tan. This is a guy we knew about, Tim. He was the CEO of a esoteric company in the semiconductor industry on the design side, Cadence Design Systems. He has a master’s degree in nuclear engineering from MIT. He was on the board of Intel and just was uncomfortable with all the middle management and inefficient use of resources when he was a board member. I think he’s still on the board, but looking not as the operator of the business. Not only has he really set the future into motion, he’s also proven to be good on the rubbing elbows side, the handshake side. He’s been able to roll the punches with the Trump administration, they got off to a very rocky start. He’s sealed an investment from we the taxpayers and from NVIDIA. I think he’s showing that he brings a lot of tools to a very difficult turnaround. I will say that NVIDIA has many chances to fail. The competition doesn’t slow down. When we hear about them being able to get 14A moving, let’s say in 2027, that’s so many months more, they’re losing to competition. Competitors like AMD and those who are actual fabs, like Taiwan Semiconductor. But on the other hand, if this story plays out the way it could, you have here on American soil a really specialized chip manufacturer that will see a ton of demand in the future, because AI ain’t going anywhere, Tim. We know that, right? If they can produce the chips here, that’s a great revenue stream for Intel in the coming years. A chance for it to be great again. I caution anyone about getting too excited on this story in the very near term, I share Rick’s caution on that. But I would say if you have a little bit of risk tolerance and you study this business averaging in, especially in those volatile periods where the stock gets taken to the woodshed, that’s not a bad strategy.
Tim Beyers: Like it, hold it, maybe a cautious buyer here. Lip-Bu Tan got smarts real good is what we’re hearing here. Up next let’s do some Mindset Monday. You’re listening to Motley Fool Money.
Tim Beyers: We’re back with another Mindset Monday. This time we’re going to look at breaks, specifically the benefit of a break from the market and from investing. Have you taken one recently? If you haven’t, why not? Breaks are on my mind, guys, because I just took one. A holiday break where I did a lot of things other than work or think about the market. I did buy and sell some stock, though. But that was in the context of plans made a while back. I think being able to disconnect from the market and daily business news prove pretty restorative for me, I have to say. Let’s talk about this. How you do it? Asit and Rick, I’d be very curious, and what’s it like when you take a break from the market? Rick, I’ll start with you here. Do you ever do this? Are you conscious about taking a break from the market and from investing?
Rick Munarriz: I am not. To me, it’s the thing where the market isn’t just work, it’s also fun, and it’s also life. It’s a lot of factors that it’s not something if you’re working 9:00-5:00 job that you don’t like, and you’re like great, I get to take a vacation, so take a break that way. But there are times, of course, where I’m traveling with the family and then traveling far, like we were in Europe two years ago for about a week or two, there was no point for me to check in because I was at different market hours and everything was completely different and it felt great. I love that but I also was happy to get back into it. But yes, I do think it’s important to take this break every once in a while, especially if you are watching the stock market every passing tick on your stocks. That is not healthy for anyone, as we’re all long-term investors, so in that regard. But again, I do cheat, even when I tell myself, I still have a little side eye to look, let me see, CNBC playing at this hotel bar. It’s probably not going to be on. But it is a thing where I can’t really get away from it, but when I do, I’m thankful that I do it. I think I become a better investor by taking a break, just like you would with anything. If you can’t crack a Rubik’s cube or any puzzle or the New York Times Crossword, take a break and look at it with fresh eyes a little while later, and you’re going to have a different approach that’ll probably make you a better investor and a better person.
Tim Beyers: I’m going to have some things to say about that, but Asit, I want to hear from you first here. When’s the last time you took a market break?
Asit Sharma: Yesterday. Now, we’re taping on a Monday. There was no market there in front of me on Sunday, but I did take a complete mental break, as I tend to do. I have a few passions outside of investing, Tim. I love to read, I like to write some fiction, I love to learn languages. But I’m not gonna lie either. The three of us have chosen this as our profession so we’re pretty wired in all the time. I think if I don’t take that conscious break to chase my passions, it could easily be something that I don’t turn off. I wanted to just go over three quick ways that I take a break. One is to take a walk out in nature. I try to do that every day. The second is what Rick mentioned, which is travel. Any time you pull yourself out of your normal rhythms, your daily rhythms and go somewhere else, it’s a great way for your brain to disengage because your brain is disoriented. It’s disoriented spatially, it’s got a lot of new stimuli coming in so that makes it easier to disconnect. Then the third is to get absorbed in something. For me, that’s reading. Your brain is trying to problem solve when you think about the markets, whether you’re professionals like the three of us or someone who is more 9:00-5:00 and does investing in his or her spare time. When your mind is there, it’s really trying to figure out, how do I achieve what I want to achieve? Why am I not having this success that I want, or wow this is great. I’m really exceeding my expectations. But it always sees investing as this problem, something to optimize. The way that you actually can really help yourself solve that problem is to immerse yourself in other problems. That could be the Rubik’s cube, Rick, sites. It could just be letting yourself go into the flow of something else. Music, art, literature, seeing friends, going out for a beer. All of those things are really great in helping you disconnect from this thing that’s tugging at you. I think it leads to better results, or at least it has in my case.
Tim Beyers: Nice, I like it. Well, a quick final thought on this, the greatest benefit, I think, I’m taking a break from the market, is perspective. Removing yourself from the daily grind of news, stock movements, and more can help you to reframe your portfolio as a loose collection of businesses with plans and purposes you may or may not believe in and following. That is something that’s very valuable. It’ll allow you to actually build a portfolio. Understanding what you like and where you still have questions is also a great way to not only steward your holdings, but also your Motley Fool membership, since we’re here to help you answer as many investing in mindset questions as we can. If you have a mindset question you’d like to get answered, please write to me at [email protected], and you could be featured in a future show. Up next, we’ll preview tomorrow. You’re listening to Motley Fool Money.
For tomorrow’s show Emily Flippen will have Jason Hall and Dan Caplinger, so you want to be sure and tune in for some more coverage of the markets and just the amount and variety of goofy things that are happening in the world. There’s a lot to get to, and Emily will be here to give it all to you. That’s tomorrow. Emily Flippen with Jason Hall and Dan Caplinger. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talked about, Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don’t buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. See our full advertising disclosures. Please check out our show notes. Thanks to Rick Munarriz and Asit Sharma. Our engineer as always is Dan Boyd, producer is Anand Chokkavelu I am your host, Tim Beyers. Thanks so much for tuning in. We’ll see you next time, Fools, Fool on.
