BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBMA) – A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much of North Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee as forecasters monitor a potentially significant winter weather event expected to impact the region from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon.
Areas Under the Winter Storm Watch
Counties included in the watch span north-central, northwest, and northeast Alabama, as well as southern Middle Tennessee. This includes Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Morgan, Marshall, Jackson, DeKalb, Cullman, Moore (TN), Lincoln (TN), and Franklin (TN), along with Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Winston, Walker, Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee counties.
Cities potentially impacted include Huntsville, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Decatur, Athens, Scottsboro, Fort Payne, Cullman, Gadsden, Jasper, Hamilton, Fayette, Guntersville, Arab, Albertville, and many others across the Tennessee Valley and north Alabama.
Updated info from James Spann just after 1 p.m. Wednesday: The weekend forecast is very complex.
- Some freezing rain will likely begin across Northwest Alabama Saturday morning with temperatures in the 27-32 degree range. Ice accumulation is likely there through midday, but by afternoon mid to upper 30s are likely, which should ease icing conditions.
- The reliable European global model continues to show a large warm sector (relatively speaking) associated with the surface low moving northward. This should keep much of North Alabama above freezing from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. It suggests temperatures will be in the 55-60 degree range Sunday at 7a CT as far north as I-20… upper 30s and low 40s are likely across the western half of the Tennessee Valley at that time.
- However we will have to watch for a CAD pattern (cold air damming) to bring colder air into Northeast Alabama Saturday night; this could open the door for some freezing rain and ice issues across counties like Jackson, DeKalb, Cherokee, and Cleburne.
- For the rest of Alabama , with the warmer air in the low levels, precipitation should be mainly rain Saturday night into early Sunday.
- Temperatures will fall quickly during the day Sunday as the surface low moves northeast, away from the state. But the precipitation will be ending as the cold air rolls in. There could be a period of snow or freezing rain on the back side of the large precipitation mass Sunday afternoon.
- Temperatures will drop into the 10-18 degree range over the northern half of Alabama by daybreak Monday, and some black ice issues are a very real possibility on roads Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures over North Alabama will stay below freezing all day Monday despite the return of sunshine.
BOTTOM LINE: With the trend toward warmer temperatures in the low levels, much of the precipitation across Alabama will likely be in the form of rain over the weekend. However, there are three windows of concern.
- Icing across Northwest Alabama Saturday morning at the onset of the event
- Icing across Northeast Alabama Saturday night (cold air damming)
- Black ice on roads across the northern half of Alabama Sunday night and Monday morning.
A winter storm watch remains in effect for the northern third of Alabama.
It is still too early for a specific impact forecast, we will have that posted here early tomorrow morning. And, remember, any forecast can change, so watch for updates.
