We are past the halfway mark of the 2025-26 season, which means its business end is hurtling towards us.
Between now and October, when the recipient of the latest Ballon d’Or is announced, there is a lot of football still to be played, of course.
Another World Cup year is upon us. The groups and the venues are finalised, excitement for the tournament in June and July is building, and with one eye on what will unfold over those 104 games in the United States, Canada and Mexico, we’re taking a look at the current Ballon d’Or contenders and which players might be leading the race.
Journalists from 100 nations vote on the winner, weighing individual brilliance against team success. With that in mind, here is The Athletic’s assessment of how the contenders currently stand.
1. Harry Kane
Why he’s here: Kane has 25 goal contributions in 18 Bundesliga matches for Bayern Munich so far this season. His 21 Bundesliga goals are the most in Europe’s top five leagues, putting him top of the Golden Boot standings. What separates this season from Kane’s previous campaigns is the balance — often playing almost as a deep midfielder, dictating play and hitting the third-most successful long passes in the Bundesliga, he has combined with Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry and Luis Diaz to devastating effect in the absence through injury of Jamal Musiala. After securing his first career trophy with last season’s Bundesliga title, the 32-year-old England captain is hunting bigger prizes — the Champions League and World Cup. He comfortably led England to qualification for the latter, scoring eight goals in their eight games.
What’s next: German league leaders Bayern are at home to Belgian counterparts Union Saint-Gilloise in the Champions League today (Wednesday), then host neighbours Augsburg, who are 15th in the 18-team Bundesliga and last won at the Allianz Arena in 2015, at the weekend. As for the World Cup, England have been drawn with Croatia, Ghana and Panama — a group they will expect to win. With Champions League-winning coach Thomas Tuchel in charge, and given their track record of getting to the semi-finals or better in three of the past four major tournaments, England will back themselves to go all the way. If they do lift the trophy on July 19, Kane will be the frontrunner for the Ballon d’Or.
2. Lamine Yamal
Why he’s here: Fifteen goal contributions in 16 La Liga appearances for Barcelona this season, and yet the numbers still undersell his impact. The 18-year-old is producing career-best figures despite battling pubalgia, a chronic groin condition that forced him to withdraw from Spain’s November internationals. He has played through persistent pain, yet his output has improved across almost every metric: more assists per 90, more key passes, higher progressive carries, fewer dispossessions and a 90 per cent pass completion rate. Defenders mark him more closely than ever, but Yamal continues to trouble them. If Spain are to back up their 2024 European Championship crown with a World Cup triumph two years later, their teenage star will surely be at the heart of it.
What’s next: Barcelona travel to winless Slavia Prague in the Champions League on Wednesday before hosting last-placed Real Oviedo, who haven’t won a match since September, on Sunday in La Liga. A chance to build momentum after a frustrating 2-1 defeat at Real Sociedad last weekend, where Barcelona created 3.69 expected goals and missed six big chances against an inspired Alex Remiro in the hosts’ goal. Yamal provided the assist for Marcus Rashford to score that night and remains the team’s brightest spark in attack.
(Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images)
3. Erling Haaland
Why he’s here: Haaland has started all 22 Premier League games for Manchester City this season, scoring 26 goals with four assists in 31 matches across all competitions. When he scores, City have lost just once in 13 games. When he fails to find the net, they have been beaten five times, the latest coming in last night’s 3-1 humbling in his Norwegian homeland by Bodo/Glimt. He takes the fewest touches of any player on this list, a pure finisher who thrives on service and movement, and City rely on him for exactly that. His scoring rate has dipped as that reliance has increased from the start of the season, but with Antoine Semenyo’s recent arrival and summer signing Rayan Cherki now integrated, Haaland may rediscover his rhythm as Pep Guardiola’s side chase Arsenal, currently seven points clear of them in the Premier League.
What’s next: City host Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday, who are bottom but unbeaten in five across all competitions. The visit of Galatasaray then follows on the final day of the Champions League league phase next Wednesday, where Haaland would potentially face former City team-mate Ilkay Gundogan. As for the summer, Norway have drawn 2018 and 2022 finalists France, new African champions Senegal and a play-off winner still to be decided that will be either Bolivia, Suriname or Iraq — a tough group that will test their dark-horse credentials in the country’s first World Cup since 1998.
4. Kylian Mbappe
Why he’s here: Mbappe has 36 goal contributions this season and leads all the players on this list for shots and touches in the opposition box in league play. He scored the 50th La Liga goal of his career in the 2-0 win against Levante on Saturday, securing Alvaro Arbeloa’s first victory as Real Madrid coach, after replacing the sacked Xabi Alonso. Madrid are just one point off Barcelona at the top of La Liga and have created more chances than any team in Europe’s top five leagues, so opportunities for Mbappe to add to his tally will not be in short supply. If he maintains this form and captains France deep into a World Cup they are among the favourites to win, his chances of a first Ballon d’Or will only increase.
What’s next: A trip to third-placed Villarreal in La Liga on Saturday, followed by a Champions League visit to Jose Mourinho’s Benfica in Lisbon — a reunion for Madrid with their Portuguese former coach, who Arbeloa played under, and a stern test of the new regime.
(Angel Martinez/Getty Images)
5. Vitinha
Why he’s here: Five years ago, Vitinha endured an underwhelming loan spell in England with Wolves. Now he is regarded by many as the best pure midfielder on the planet, the metronome behind the rise of Luis Enrique’s Paris Saint-Germain. The 25-year-old finished third on the Ballon d’Or podium in 2025 and has carried that form into this season, with five goals and 10 assists in 27 games, including a hat-trick against Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League in November. His seven assists are the most in Ligue 1, and no player in the division completes more passes. Vitinha pulls the strings for PSG, carrying the ball from back to front without breaking stride. Portugal’s Nations League triumph last year has given them genuine belief heading into what will (surely!) be Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup, as he’ll be 41 years old by the time it starts. If they go deep, Vitinha will almost certainly be at the centre of it.
What’s next: PSG travel to 17th-placed Auxerre in Ligue 1 on Friday, a chance to keep the title pressure on leaders Lens, who are a point ahead of them. They then conclude their Champions League campaign with a home game against Newcastle United, where revenge might be on their minds after losing 4-1 at St James’ Park in 2023 — a match in which Vitinha came off the bench.
6. Declan Rice
Why he’s here: Rice has been a near ever-present for Arsenal this season, with only Martin Zubimendi logging more Premier League minutes among their outfield players. The 27-year-old has four goals and three assists in the English top flight — only Leandro Trossard has more goal contributions for the Premier League leaders. What makes Rice invaluable is his versatility: set-piece deliveries, ball striking from distance, ball carrying from deep and late runs into the box. He is attempting and completing more passes than in any previous league season, covering the most progressive distance with his distribution. His 41.4 per cent shots-on-target rate is a career high, and a testament to the responsibility he carries as a senior member of the side. For England, he will be crucial at the World Cup, if fit. Few midfielders combine leadership, output and tactical flexibility the way he does.
What’s next: Arsenal host Michael Carrick’s rejuvenated Manchester United on Sunday, fresh from their derby victory against City. Carrick beat them 3-2 in his previous spell as United interim manager in 2021. If Mikel Arteta’s side are to protect their seven-point lead over second-placed Manchester City (assuming they win at home against last-placed Wolves the previous day), Rice is likely to need to deliver again.
(Michael Steele/Getty Images)
7. Michael Olise
Why he’s here: Olise recently played his 50th Bundesliga game and marked it with two goals and an assist in an 8-1 rout of Wolfsburg. In his two outings since, he added another goal and four more assists. His 24 assists since joining Bayern are the most by any player in their first 50 Bundesliga appearances on record (since 2004-05), surpassing Jadon Sancho’s 22 for Borussia Dortmund. No player in Europe’s top five leagues has more assists in that span. This season alone, his 13 assists lead the Bundesliga, his 10 goals are second only to Kane, and his 18 big chances created top that division. The 24-year-old has nine goal contributions in his past four matches.
What’s next: Bayern’s upcoming fixtures against USG and Augsburg should offer Olise more opportunities to add to that tally. He has established himself in a France squad bursting with attacking talent, competing with Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembele, Marcus Thuram, Bradley Barcola, Christopher Nkunku, Hugo Ekitike and Cherki for minutes. If France lift their second World Cup in three tries come July, Olise could be their breakout star.
8. Ousmane Dembele
Why he’s here: The 2025 Ballon d’Or winner has eight goals and five assists this season, but his campaign has been disrupted by injury, missing 11 games so far, the bulk of them through a hamstring issue. Against Lille at the weekend, though, Dembele offered a reminder of what he can do, scoring twice in a 3-0 win. He opened with a clinical finish from the edge of the box before producing the second, spotting goalkeeper Berke Ozer off his line and clipping a 14-yard chip over him in 3.2 seconds of distilled audacity. “A PlayStation goal,” PSG head coach Luis Enrique called it. “When you press all the buttons at once, that’s what happens.” For a player once criticised for spending late nights on video games during his Barcelona days, those hours look like they are finally paying off. PSG sit second in Ligue 1, one point behind a resurgent Lens side enjoying their best campaign in years. The Champions League holders blossomed in the spring of last season, playing some of the most beautiful football in Europe. If Dembele stays fit, they have time to do so again.
What’s next: For Dembele, the focus will soon shift to defending his status as officially the global game’s best player. France are among the World Cup favourites, and he will be expected to deliver on the biggest stage come the summer. No player has won back-to-back Ballons d’Or since Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo were dominating the award a decade ago. Dembele has the talent to join that company, fitness permitting.
(Anne-Christine Poujoulat/ AFP via Getty Images)
9. Luis Diaz
Why he’s here: Diaz has 24 goal contributions in 25 matches for Bayern this season, the best campaign of his career, producing 1.13 goals and assists per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga. The most compelling argument for his Ballon d’Or candidacy is how much Liverpool miss him. Arne Slot must look back at his transfer last July as the one that may have derailed their season. Diaz has thrived in Munich, his high energy fitting perfectly into coach Vincent Kompany’s system.
What’s next: As with Bayern team-mates Kane and Olise, those upcoming fixtures against Union Saint-Gilloise and Augsburg offer opportunities to keep the goals coming. For his Colombia side, the World Cup group draw has been kind: Portugal, Uzbekistan and one of New Caledonia, Jamaica and DR Congo, depending on the outcome of the inter-confederation play-offs in March. They will back themselves to go deep, with Diaz leading the line.
10. Raphinha
Why he’s here: Raphinha finished fifth in last year’s Ballon d’Or voting and is producing the best numbers of his career this season, with 1.18 goals and assists per 90 minutes. A hamstring injury kept him out for 10 games, but when he plays, he delivers. Barcelona have not lost a match Raphinha has started this season. Their only defeat with him on the pitch came against Chelsea, and he played just 28 minutes that night. Alongside his attacking output, the 29-year-old brings relentless intensity, the sort of stuff that makes him a coach’s favourite. If he stays fit for the second half of the season and carries that form into the World Cup with Brazil, he could climb higher up this list come October.
What’s next: Barcelona’s upcoming fixtures against Slavia and Oviedo provide chances to build rhythm after that frustrating defeat at Real Sociedad. For Brazil, the pressure is different. They will arrive at the World Cup with a point to prove after a turbulent qualifying campaign, and Raphinha will hope to be their talisman, in a squad laden — as always — with attacking options.
Knocking on the door? Lionel Messi
Why he’s here: At 38, Messi produced the greatest individual season in Major League Soccer history: 43 goals and 25 assists in 49 games, breaking knockout records on the way to Inter Miami winning the title — his 42nd career trophy. He has now won everything on offer. Former team-mate Javier Mascherano, now his coach at Miami, has repeatedly praised something Messi was never previously known for: his pressing and work off the ball. World Cup winners rarely fare well when trying to retain their championship but if Argentina do go back-to-back this summer, Messi will be ready to climb onto the podium once more. He became the first active MLS player to win the Ballon d’Or in 2023, three months after joining Miami — his eighth time lifting the award.
What’s next: The new MLS season starts on February 21. Between now and the World Cup, Messi’s biggest challenge is fitness, managing fatigue and an ankle injury that has lingered. If Argentina go a long way in June and July, a ninth Ballon d’Or at 39 (he turns that age in June) would be the most remarkable of all.
