Seemingly predicting the impossible with five films receiving 10+ nominations: Sinners (14), One Battle After Another (13), Frankenstein (11), Marty Supreme (11) and Hamnet (10). That’s not going to happen, right? Sinners will either tie or break the record, I’m leaning to tying but anything is possible and its nomination track record so far has been stellar. But someone is going to underperform.
The fate of It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value is up in the air until tomorrow. Will the shorts be the deciding factor in overall accuracy once again? Will F1 be the make or break for Best Picture predictions?
Some changes from ‘final’ individual category predictions (click on each category for more detail). Anyway, let’s do this.
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)2. Hamnet (Focus Features)3. Sinners (Warner Bros)4. Sentimental Value (NEON) 5. Marty Supreme (A24)6. Frankenstein (Netflix)7. Bugonia (Focus Features)8. The Secret Agent (NEON)9. Train Dreams (Netflix)10. It Was Just an Accident (NEON)
Spoiler: F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros)
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)2. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (NEON)3. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros)4. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features)5. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24)
Spoiler: Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Netflix)
1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24)2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)3. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (Warner Bros)4. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (NEON)5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
Spoiler: Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (Focus Features)
1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Focus Features)2. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (NEON)3. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)4. Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features)5. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
Spoiler: Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (Focus Features)
1. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON)2. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)3. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix)4. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features)5. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
Spoiler: Miles Caton – Sinners (Warner Bros)
1. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)2. Amy Madigan – Weapons (Warner Bros/New Line)3. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (Warner Bros)4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (NEON)5. Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme (A24)
Spoiler: Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
1. Sinners – Francine Maisler (Warner Bros)2. One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis (Warner Bros)3. Hamnet – Nina Gold (Focus Features)4. Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti (A24) 5. Frankenstein – Robin D. Cook (Netflix)
Spoiler: Weapons – Allison Jones (Warner Bros/New Line)
1. One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson (Warner Bros)2. Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell (Focus Features)3. Bugonia – Will Tracy (Focus Features)4. Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Netflix)5. Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro (Netflix)
Spoiler: No Other Choice – Park Chan-wook, Don McKellar, Lee Kyoung-mi and Jahye Lee (NEON)
1. Sinners – Ryan Coogler (Warner Bros)2. Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (NEON)3. It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi (NEON)4. Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (A24)5. Sorry, Baby – Eva Victor (A24)
Spoiler: Blue Moon — Robert Kaplow and Elizabeth Weiland (Sony Pictures Classics)
1. One Battle After Another — Andy Jurgensen (Warner Bros)2. Sinners — Michael P. Shawver (Warner Bros)3. F1— Stephen Mirrione (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros)4. Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein (A24)5. Hamnet — Chloé Zhao and Affonso Gonçalves (Focus Features)
Spoiler: Frankenstein — Evan Schiff (Netflix)
1. Sinners — Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Warner Bros)2. One Battle After Another — Michael Bauman (Warner Bros)3. Frankenstein — Dan Laustsen (Netflix)4. Marty Supreme — Darius Khondji (A24)5. Train Dreams — Adolpho Veloso (Netflix)
Spoiler: Hamnet — Łukasz Žal (Focus Features)
1. Frankenstein — Tamara Deverell, set decoration: Shane Vieau (Netflix)2. Wicked: For Good — Nathan Crowley, set decoration: Lee Sandales (Universal Pictures)3. Sinners — Hannah Beachler, set decoration: Monique Champagne (Warner Bros)4. Hamnet — Fiona Crombie, set decoration: Alice Felton (Focus Features)5. Marty Supreme — Jack Fisk, set decoration: Adam Willis (A24)
Spoiler: The Fantastic Four: First Steps — Kasra Farahani, set decoration: Jille Azis (Walt Disney)
1. Frankenstein — Kate Hawley (Netflix)2. Wicked: For Good — Paul Tazewell (Universal Pictures)3. Hamnet — Malgosia Turzanska (Focus Features)4. Sinners — Ruth E. Carter (Warner Bros)5. Hedda — Lindsay Pugh (Amazon MGM)
Spoiler: Marty Supreme — Miyako Bellizzi (A24)
1. Sinners — Ludwig Göransson (Warner Bros) 2. One Battle After Another — Jonny Greenwood (Warner Bros) 3. Hamnet — Max Richter (Focus Features)4. Frankenstein — Alexandre Desplat (Netflix)5. Marty Supreme — Daniel Lopatin (A24)
Spoiler: Train Dreams — Bryce Dessner (Netflix)
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros)3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (Greenwich Entertainment)4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix)5. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Spoiler: “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple Original Films)
1. F1 (Warner Bros/Apple Original Films)2. Sinners (Warner Bros) 3. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) 4. Frankenstein (Netflix)5. Sirāt (NEON)
Spoiler: Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures)
1. Frankenstein (Netflix)
Mike Hill, Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel2. Sinners (Warner Bros)
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Shunika Terry3. The Smashing Machine (A24)
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, Bjoern Rehbein4. Marty Supreme (A24)
Mike Fontaine, Kay Georgiou, Kyra Pachenko5. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Mark Coulier, Frances Hannon, Laura Blount
Spoiler: Kokuho — Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu (GKIDS)
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)2. F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros)3. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films)4. Superman (Warner Bros)5. Frankenstein (Netflix)
Spoiler: Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)2. Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney)3. Arco (NEON)4. Little Amélie or the Character of the Rain (GKIDS)5. Elio (Walt Disney/Pixar)
Spoiler: In Your Dreams (Netflix)
1. Cover-Up (Netflix) 2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Frontline Features / The Associated Press / PBS Distribution) 3. Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Bantam Film)5. My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow (Argot Pictures)
Spoiler: The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
1. Norway — Sentimental Value (NEON)2. Brazil — The Secret Agent (NEON)3. France — It Was Just an Accident (NEON)4. Spain — Sirāt (NEON)5. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (WILLA)
Spoiler: Taiwan — Left-Handed Girl (Netflix)
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls2. Cardboard3. Snow Bear4. Éiru5. Autokar
Spoiler: Butterfly
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
1. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud2. All the Walls Came Down3. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”4. The Devil is Busy5. On Healing Land, Birds Perch
Spoiler: Heartbeat
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. The Singers2. Two People Exchanging Saliva3. Ado4. Rock, Paper, Scissors5. Jane Austen’s Period Drama
Spoiler: A Friend of Dorothy
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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