This isn’t the first time these teams have met this season. Yes, that nightmare you had back at the start of Big East play was real. Xavier lost that one by 41 in a game that wasn’t as close as the scoreboard indicated.
Since then, the teams have had results that aren’t in keeping with what they thought they’d be this season. Creighton is now a disappointing 5-3 in Big East play. They just lost to Providence, a result that kept Kim English hanging on to a job and threw off what the Jays had built by beating Villanova.
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Xavier, on the other hand, lost three straight then rode a supportive home crowd to wins over Butler and that same Providence team. The Musketeers are 3-4 in the Big East but almost unquestionably happier with their recent results. That’s what happens when expectations start differently.
Team Fingerprint
This Creighton team is just the same one you are used to, but the Diet version. They still shoot well, shoot a ton of threes, and play semi-quickly on offense. They just don’t do any of those things as well as they have for Coach McDermott’s better teams. Except, you know, that one time.
On defense it’s a focus on limiting three point attempts that sets this team apart. They are top 10 nationally in denying the arc. They get in serious trouble when team shoot more than 35% of their attempts from deep. They don’t send teams to the line much, because they don’t try to block shots. They don’t force a ton of turnovers either. It’s play solid defense, challenge shots, and rebound.
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Players
Starting matchups
Austin Swartz
Point Guard
Roddie Anderson III
Sophomore
Class
Senior
6’4″, 205
Measurements
6’3″, 195
11.3/2.8/1.5
Game line
12.8/3.2/2.7
45/38.9/60
Shooting line
37.7/28/77.3
Swartz got off to a slow start this season, but has been blistering hot since Big East play started, currently sitting 5th in the league at 17.3 points per game and sporting a gaudy 61.1 EFG% in that time. His free throw percentage is shockingly bad for someone who is scoring so well from everywhere else, but he lit Xavier up for 27 in the first meeting and dropped 33 on Georgetown last week so slowing him down is clearly a pretty tall task.
Ty Davis
Shooting Guard
Malik Messina-Moore
Junior
Class
Senior
6’4″, 190
Measurements
6’5″, 200
1.7/1.9/1.3
Game line
10.7/2.8/4
38.5/25/87.5
Shooting line
38.4/33.7/76.8
Davis has started all 8 Big East games and taken 7 total field goal attempts in those games. He’s also turning the ball over more often than he’s getting assists in conference play, although he did pull down 2 offensive rebounds in each of the Bluejays’ last two contests. I suppose you could look at him as a player due a breakout game, but you could also look at him as a starter who is averaging less than a point per game in his 15 minutes per contest in the Big East.
Josh Dix
Small Forward
Tre Carroll
Senior
Class
Senior
6’6″, 205
Measurements
6’8″, 235
12.4/3.8/2.8
Game line
16.7/5.8/2.9
42.9/34.6/86.5
Shooting line
48.4/31.6/61.3
Dix came in from Iowa to be Creighton’s go-to guy, but is shooting less efficiently and frequently than he did a year ago. He’s a decent distributor and is getting almost 5 rebounds per game in conference play, but his field goal numbers dipping across the board has blunted his effectiveness as a main scorer and he’s taken a back seat to Swartz as the latter has gained momentum.
Jasen Green
Power Forward
Filip Borovicanin
Junior
Class
Senior
6’8″, 235
Measurements
6’9″, 227
10.9/5.2/2.6
Game line
9.8/7.9/4.4
59.2/36.7/74
Shooting line
46.1/35/81.3
Green, like Swartz, has come on since conference play started and is averaging a tidy 13.3/5.9/2.3 with a 68.5 EFG% in Big East games. That puts him top 20 in the conference in scoring, rebounding, and blocked shots per game and 26th in assists while maintaining a decent turnover rate as well. Last game he went for 26/7/4 on 8-10 shooting against Providence so it’s safe to say he comes into this game on somewhat of a heater.
Isaac Traudt
Center
Jovan Milicevic
Junior
Class
Sophomore
6’10”, 235
Measurements
6’10”, 241
7.4/2.6/0.6
Game line
11.1/4.2/1.4
37.8/35.6/83.3
Shooting line
42.3/42.7/64.9
At 6’10” Traudt does a shockingly small amount of big man stuff. Only 18 of his 119 field goal attempts have come from inside the arc this season, he has blocked fewer shots this season than Tre Carroll did against Butler, and rebounds at similar rates to his own team’s point guards. He does a good job of not putting his opposite number at the free throw line, fouling at the lowest rate of any statistical qualifier in the Big East, and has a good track record of shooting the three, despite poor returns this season.
Reserves
The Jays have gotten a lot of minutes off the bench this season, but have seen the rotation tighten up significantly since the start of conference play, having three players average double digit minutes off the bench. Part of that is down to the loss of Jackson McAndrew after 4 games this season and the diminishing role of Owen Freeman, who was a healthy scratch last game against Providence.
Charlotte transfer Nik Graves has started 9 times this season and typically plays more minutes than Davis, who he backs up, allowing Swartz to play off the ball. He hasn’t scored the ball all that efficiently this season, but he’s the best distributor on the team and does a good job of getting himself to the line, where he is very good. Wing Blake Harper transferred in from Howard, where he averaged 19.5 points per game, and has increased his efficiency in a much smaller role. He is an adept three point shooter and excels at creating his own shot and is coming off 16/8/4 in 26 minutes against Providence. Fedor Zugic is another wing option, who has taken a huge step back in efficiency from a year ago, owing mostly to a 13% drop in 3P%. He’s getting to the rim more and converting better there than he did a year ago, but is yet to break his season long slump from three.
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Three Questions
– Can Xavier do it on the road? Both of the big wins recently were at the Cintas. The Musketeers have one road win this season and that was at the rapidly decompensating Ed Cooley’s Georgetown. This is a different animal.
– Is Jovan Milicevic back? The big Canadian struggled mightily in the early Big East slate. The last two games he’s been back to his early season self, but with a caveat: he’s fouling any and everyone he can reach. X needs him on the court, especially if he’s playing well.
– Can Xavier find a bench? In the last win Roddie Anderson III played 29 bench minutes. Xavier had six other guys come off the pine and they combined for 27 minutes. Either All Wright needs to get rolling or a seventh player needs to step up.
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Three Keys
– Run: The Big East HATES this one trick that Xavier uses. It’s time to mash the gas and go.
– Make shots: Xavier is still unbeaten when the EFG is over 50%. That’s not a terribly impressive number, but X does everything else well enough that if they are mediocre from the floor they win.
– Compete: The reverse fixture was over with 30 minutes to play. Xavier isn’t getting an at-large, it’s time to ruin Creighton’s chances.
