Our 69 News Storm Team continues to monitor a large winter storm for the weekend, one that will impact much of the country, from Texas and the Deep South with a crippling ice storm to significant snows farther north and through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
The expected track and evolution of the storm have changed fairly significantly over the last 24 hours. But despite that, the plan for a widespread and significant snowfall Sunday and Sunday night across the entire area remains the same. In fact, the chance for double-digit snowfall totals, locally a foot or more, continues to rise. It’s not locked in yet, but if you’re a snow lover, the trend is your friend, at least for now.
Here’s the latest developments on our weekend storm and our storm team’s thoughts:
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Timing: This remains unchanged, with snow likely developing either side of sunrise Sunday morning, and continuing through Sunday night. The heaviest snow, with rates to 1 to 2 inches per hour, will likely fall from late Sunday morning through late Sunday afternoon or early evening.
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Track: Yesterday, it looked like the track was well to our south, and the heaviest snow would likely stay to the south. Now, it looks like a coastal low will track farther north, but it’s still unclear just how far north it will track. What this means is that widespread moderate to heavy snows will likely impact the entire area on Sunday.
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Type: It still looks like all or mostly snow for much of the area given the bitter cold arctic air in place, with temps in the teens all weekend. It’s also still likely to be a lightweight, fluffy, powdery snow, again thanks to the cold air. If the storm tracks closer to the coast and farther north, there could be some (brief) mixing from the I-95 corridor to the Jersey and Delaware shore, but that’s not a certainty at this point. Even if mixing takes place, any mix would be preceded by heavy snow for an extended period of time.
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Totals: No doubt, this is what everyone wants to know…how much snow? Unfortunately, it’s still too early to say with any high degree of confidence any specific snowfall ranges. What we can tell you is the probability of certain amounts of snow: We think there’s a very high chance (90%+) of at least 6 inches of snow for the entire area. Consider this the floor, the minimum you will see, at least the way things look right now. There’s also an increasing chance (at least 50% right now…and climbing) of at least a foot (12″) of snow for most if not all of our area. Most of that will fall during the day on Sunday, slowly tapering off Sunday evening. Finally, there is a much smaller, but not zero chance, of seeing at least 18″ of snow for parts of our area. Right now, we’ll put it at around a 10% chance of seeing at least 18 inches of snow. So a moderate snowfall looks to be more or less a lock with at least 6 inches of snow expected, and chances are increasing for a widespread foot of snow for much of the area. The 12″ or more totals aren’t a lock, but again, the trend is increasing.
It’s still a little early for snow maps…but we’re getting there: So when does the uncertainty diminish and when can a snowfall forecast map be put out? Given the big changes with the storm track over the last 24 hours, it’s still too early. Our models can still change as the pieces of the storm have yet to come together, and all aren’t on the playing field yet. If there’s great agreement in our computer guidance, snowfall maps can perhaps be put out as early as Thursday afternoon and evening. At the very latest, we’ll have snowfall maps out by no later than Friday morning, 48 hours before the snow starts. Traditionally, 48 hours is the standard we use for issuing snowfall maps, but if the confidence grows, we’ll strive for Thursday evening.
Summary: In short, a major winter storm is still increasingly likely to impact our entire area for Sunday and Sunday night. A plowable snow is likely area-wide, with at least 6 inches the floor, 12 inches increasingly likely, and higher totals than 12″ still possible across at least parts of our area. The snow will come with bitter cold temperatures all weekend long, and into the following week. Official snowfall forecast maps will be issued either Thursday evening or Friday morning, but plan for significant snowfall and monitor future forecasts for more specifics about amounts and timing.
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