Double Digit Snow Totals Possible Across Mid-Atlantic
A major, widespread, long-lasting winter storm will hammer parts of the South, Midwest and Northeast Friday through Monday with potentially damaging ice and heavy snow for millions from New Mexico and Texas to parts of New England. This storm will lead to widespread dangerous travel and its destructive South ice storm could lead to long-lasting power outages and tree damage.
The storm has been named Winter Storm Fern by The Weather Channel. According to The Weather Company forecasters, Fern could affect over 180 million in the U.S. with snow and/or ice, over half the nation’s estimated population. Either heavy snow or ice is forecast for 33 states from the storm, from Arizona to the Midwest, South and New England.
Winter Storm Alerts
Winter storm alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service from the southern Rockies to the East Coast, covering dozens of major cities including Dallas, Houston, Nashville, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia.
Impacts are expected to be most severe in areas where winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings will eventually be issued. Pay attention to the timing of these alerts in The Weather Channel app.
(MORE: Winter Storm Fern Maps Tracker)
Timing And Cities Impacted
Friday: Snow, sleet and freezing rain will increase by late morning or early afternoon in the Plains, including parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and northern and western Texas.
Cities: Lubbock, Dodge City
Friday night: This wintry mess of snow, sleet and ice will continue to sag southward in the Southern Plains and spread into the Central Plains, lower Mississippi Valley as far east as parts of Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
Cities: Albuquerque, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Dallas, Kansas City, Little Rock, Memphis
Saturday: Snow, sleet and ice could sink even a bit farther south in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, while it picks up in the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, parts of the Carolinas and perhaps far northern Georgia.
Cities: Albuquerque, Lubbock, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Austin, Little Rock, Shreveport, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Asheville, Charlotte, Raleigh, Roanoke, Kansas City, St. Louis, Louisville, Indianapolis, Cincinnati
Saturday Night: This wintry mess may sag even farther south toward parts of southeast Texas, southwestern Louisiana, central Mississippi, northeast Georgia and South Carolina. Snow will spread into the mid-Atlantic states and intensify while continuing farther west into the Ohio Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and parts of Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico. Some snow may fall as far north as parts of the southern Great Lakes.
Cities: Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Little Rock, Shreveport, Jackson, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Atlanta (especially northeast metro), Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Richmond, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York City, Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Louisville, Cleveland, Cincinnati
Sunday: Wintry precipitation will end in Texas, Oklahoma and the lower Mississippi Valley by midday, but will persist in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas and the Northeast.
Cities: Houston, Oklahoma City, Little Rock, St. Louis, Chicago, Shreveport, Jackson, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Indianpolis, Louisville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Atlanta (northeast metro), Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston
Sunday night and Monday: Snow will continue throughout much of the Northeast, but could mix with sleet, ice or change to rain near the coast from southern New England and Long Island to the Delmarva Peninsula as a nor’easter moves along the East Coast.
Snow may also linger in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Areas of sleet and/or freezing rain may also linger in pats of Virginia and the Carolinas before either changing to rain or ending before sunrise Monday morning.
Some snow is expected to linger in parts of the Northeast, especially New England, on Monday, along with gusty winds as the nor’easter gradually moves away.
Cities: Knoxville, Louisville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Atlanta (northeast metro), Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston
How Much?
The map below shows the chance of at least one-tenth of an inch of ice accumulation during the storm.
Areas in the darker purple contours may see much higher accumulations, enough to not only to make roads hazardous, if not impassable, but also to accumulate on trees and power lines, leading to tree damage and numerous power outages.
If that’s not enough, winds during the storm could only add stress to trees and power lines weighed down by ice, increasing the damaging potential of this ice storm.
If you’re in the areas contoured in the map below, you need to prepare for the potential of power outages, possibly lasting hours or a few days, especially considering cold air will plunge into the region during and after the storm.
That all said, there is significant uncertainty as to how persistent freezing rain will be in any one area during the storm, and where the line between rain and freezing rain will set up in the Southeast, due to the potential for warmer air pushing farther north.
(MORE: 5 Things You Need To Know About Ice Storms)
Snow
In general, the heavy snow threat from Winter Storm Fern has been trending farther north.
A broad swath from New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley and Northeast will likely pick up at least 6 inches of snow from Friday through Monday. Many of these areas have a good chance of measuring a foot or more of snow, as well, as shown by the darkest purple and pink contours in the map below.
This could lead to dangerous travel conditions in these areas, with some roads possibly become impassable by this weekend, especially in the southern portion of heaviest snow swath.
This is also likely to trigger significant flight delays and cancellations, especially Sunday and possibly early Monday at the major East Coast hubs.
If you have travel plans in these areas, we strongly urge you to either postpone or cancel them.
This has the potential to be heaviest snowstorm since early February 1998 in Louisville, Kentucky, and only the third one-foot-plus snowstorm of record in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
When Will It Thaw Out?
Compounding the impacts from the storm in the South is a strong push of cold arctic air that may threaten daily cold records across parts of the South, Midwest and East.
Once the storm is over, daytime highs might not climb above freezing until Monday or Tuesday in areas covered with ice or snow in the South. And morning lows may plunge into the single digits, teens and 20s in these affected areas through Tuesday or Wednesday.
This could leave those without power shivering long after the storm. We have important tips on how to cope with a winter power outage here and here.
While increasing sunshine should help thaw some snow or ice during the day, plunging temperatures after sunset may lead to refreezing on roads and several days of slippery travel into early next week.
Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.
