Are the New York Mets a better team than they were at the end of last season? Well, they couldn’t be much worse. But really, it’s difficult to know how their dramatic transformation will play out.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns set out this offseason to improve his clubhouse and his defense. His revamped roster appears more in line with his vision, even with third baseman Bo Bichette and first baseman Jorge Polanco playing new positions. But the Mets also have the look of a team hastily patched together, with defensive concerns, injury concerns and perhaps chemistry concerns, too.
Club officials are high on the makeups of the players they acquired. Yet, even if all of the Mets’ New York newbies make seamless transitions to perhaps the game’s most pressurized market, don’t be surprised if it takes this team time to jell. The Opening Day roster figures to include at least eight new players, a turnover of more than 30 percent.
The good news? Per Fangraphs, the Mets’ projected WAR total now ranks third in the majors, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees. In the NL East, the Mets project better than the Philadelphia Phillies, who are bringing back largely the same roster, only a year older, and the Atlanta Braves, who have made a series of interesting moves, but remain a starting pitcher short.
The Mets’ failure to qualify for the postseason with the game’s second-highest payroll last season more than justified Stearns’ gutting of the roster. On paper, Stearns has compensated for the free-agent defections of first baseman Pete Alonso and closer Edwin Díaz and trades of left fielder Brandon Nimmo and infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil. And his acquisition Wednesday night of right-handers Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers from the Milwaukee Brewers addressed the team’s one remaining need, a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Stearns’ predecessor, Billy Eppler, presided over the 2022 draft in which the Mets selected the two players they traded to the Brewers, right-hander Brandon Sproat and infielder/outfielder Jett Williams. Eppler now works as a special advisor for the Brewers. And Stearns, in his two-plus years at the helm, has taken the Mets’ farm system to another level, instituting processes to help make it one of the game’s best.
While Sproat and Williams cracked Baseball America’s latest top 100 prospects, the Mets placed four others on the list, tying the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians for the most of any club. At the major-league level, none of the Mets’ additions has come with a commitment of more than three years, creating room for the club to integrate young talent.
The flip side of Stearns’ short-term strategy is that Peralta and Bichette could be gone after one year. The same goes for new center fielder Luis Robert Jr., if he proves unworthy of the Mets picking up his $20 million club option. Polanco and reliever Luke Weaver signed for two years. Reliever Devin Williams took three, and the Mets exchanged five years of Nimmo for three of second baseman Marcus Semien.
Future turnover, then, is inevitable. But that’s a matter for another day. The bigger immediate concerns are whether this team can stay healthy, and whether it will improve as much defensively as Stearns envisioned – and in that area again, the Mets couldn’t be much worse. They ranked 21st in Outs Above Average last season and 22nd in defensive efficiency (converting batted balls into outs).
Stearns trumpeted the idea Wednesday that the Mets’ infield will include four players who began their careers as shortstops. Polanco began working at first last season with Seattle, so it’s not difficult to picture him being at least as good as Alonso. Bichette’s arm at third is a question, but he will have all spring to adapt to different throwing angles. Semien, meanwhile, is coming off a Gold Glove season at second with Texas. The bigger question with him is whether at 35 he can rebound from back-to-back, sub-.700 OPS seasons.
The improved up-the-middle defense also includes Robert, presuming he can stay on the field. The Mets’ dream for Robert is that playing in a winning environment will unlock him, and that he can return to the 38-homer, 20-stolen base sensation he was in 2023. That season, he played in 145 games. In his four other full seasons, he averaged 94.
Polanco, 32, averaged 101 games from 2022 to ’24 due to hamstring and knee issues, then played 138 last season, recovering well from left knee surgery in October 2024. Bichette, who turns 28 in March, has been on the injured list five times in the last three seasons for leg issues.
Past injuries are the best predictor of future injuries. Alonso and Nimmo have been among the most durable players in the game. Cody Bellinger, who averaged 139 games the past four seasons, was perhaps a better fit for the Mets than any player they’ve added, thanks to his reliability and versatility. But Bellinger agreed Wednesday on a five-year, $162.5 million free-agent contract with the New York Yankees – a term Stearns probably considered too long for his liking.
There’s a world in which the Mets are haunted by their fragility, including in, ahem, their starting rotation. But there’s also a world in which they get 90th percentile outcomes from most of their new players and improvement from others. Offensively, the exchange of Alonso, Nimmo and McNeil for Bichette, Polanco, Robert and Semien could work out in the Mets’ favor, and in a big way.
A little more than a month ago, the Mets lost Alonso and Díaz on back-to-back days, creating a near-meltdown among their fans. Stearns’ plan, if he indeed had one, appeared in disarray. In some ways, it still looks a bit disjointed. But by increasing their payroll to $365 million, second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets appear to have at least bought themselves a contender.
Start from there.
